Reds Fans Starting to Get Concerned
To say that I wasn't worried about the Reds would be like me saying that the Bengals have a great chance to win the Super Bowl. The fact is that I'd be lying.
The Reds came into the season with the highest expectations this team has seen in years. Everyone was thinking they would at least win the division for a second straight year and maybe even do more than that.
This season has not turned out like I thought it would, in fact I doubt anyone could've predicted this. The Reds aren't bad, they're not great, their average. And an average team doesn't cut it after what happened last season. The Reds don't have me deeply concerned yet, but after every close loss, blown lead, and the deeper we get into the season, I become more and more concerned. And here's why.
The facts don't lie (through Sunday 6/13/2011):
-The starting pitching has been a roller coaster ride and has been very inconsistent.
- A team ERA of 4.23 is good enough for 25th in the league.
-9 different players have started a game for the Reds this season due to injuries and poor performance from others.
-Reds starters have given up 53 HR and issued 135 bases on balls.
-Opening Day starter Edinson Volquez was sent to Triple-A Louisville because he couldn't throw strikes.
-The Cuban Missile has been shelved because in 13 innings this season, Aroldis Chapman has 15 strikeouts, but has walked 20 with an ERA of 6.92 and was put on the DL.
Problems continue in the field and at the plate:
-The offense leads the National League in runs, but sure doesn't feel like it.
-The left field situation is a mess:
-36 year-old Scott Rolen, an All-Star and Gold Glove winner last season, has been plagued with injury and only has 2 HR, none since April.
-Drew Stubbs leads the majors with 89 strikeouts and is on pace to strikeout 215 times. Didn't we see this already with Adam Dunn?
As bad as its been, the Reds are still 34-33, 4.5 games out of first and it's not time to give up on them just yet.
Last I checked the Reds still have reigning MVP Joey Votto at first and batting third in the lineup. Jay Bruce was the NL Player of the Month for May and is just knocking the cover off the ball right now. Brandon Phillips leads all second baseman in All-Star votes and almost certainly has a Gold Glove locked up already.
Closer, Francisco Cordero, has pitched very well and so has most of the bullpen for the better part of the season. Johnny Cueto has been outstanding since coming off the DL. Mike Leake has pitched very well after coming back up from a stint in the minors and the Reds got a lot of good, young talent in Triple-A.
It's only June and the Reds have 95 games to go and plenty, plenty of time to get back into the thick of things and make another playoff run. Some things have to change though.
Dusty Baker needs to let Heisey play in left field for at least 15 or 20 straight games and figure out if the guy can play or not. Gomes and Lewis are not the answer and everyone wants to see Heisey, so put him out there and if he doesn't work, bring in someone else. At least give Heisey a chance, he has to be better than trotting Gomes and Lewis out there.
Also, the shortstop situation has to be addressed. Either bring up Zach Cozart, who is playing short in Louisville and give him a chance, or trade for someone. Rumors are the Reds might go after Mets SS Jose Reyes, but he's making a lot of money and is a free agent when the season ends. It's not worth trading some of your young talent to rent a guy for 3 or 4 months. As for Cozart, he may not be as good of a defender as Janish, but he's younger than Renteria and a better hitter than both of them.
If the pitching gets better, which it can, and if Aroldis, Homer, Volquez, and Wood can pitch like they did last year, along with Cordero, Arroyo, Cueto and Leake, the Reds should be alright. Also, if the injuries subside and Scott Rolen gets healthy and can contribute more than he is right now, the Reds can certainly challenge the Cardinals and Brewers in the NL Central. Rolen has not played well this season and his time is running out, but the Reds play better when he's in there contributing.
Come July 11, the beginning of the All-Star break, we will know if the Reds are contenders or pretenders. A brutal schedule leading up to the break will not make it easy. Away series in Los Angeles, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Milwaukee, along with Toronto, NY Yankees and Cleveland visiting GABP, will leave the Reds with their hands full.
So, the road back to the postseason will not be easy, but when did anyone say it was going to be easy.
The Reds came into the season with the highest expectations this team has seen in years. Everyone was thinking they would at least win the division for a second straight year and maybe even do more than that.
This season has not turned out like I thought it would, in fact I doubt anyone could've predicted this. The Reds aren't bad, they're not great, their average. And an average team doesn't cut it after what happened last season. The Reds don't have me deeply concerned yet, but after every close loss, blown lead, and the deeper we get into the season, I become more and more concerned. And here's why.
The facts don't lie (through Sunday 6/13/2011):
-The starting pitching has been a roller coaster ride and has been very inconsistent.
- A team ERA of 4.23 is good enough for 25th in the league.
-9 different players have started a game for the Reds this season due to injuries and poor performance from others.
-Reds starters have given up 53 HR and issued 135 bases on balls.
-Opening Day starter Edinson Volquez was sent to Triple-A Louisville because he couldn't throw strikes.
-The Cuban Missile has been shelved because in 13 innings this season, Aroldis Chapman has 15 strikeouts, but has walked 20 with an ERA of 6.92 and was put on the DL.
Problems continue in the field and at the plate:
-The offense leads the National League in runs, but sure doesn't feel like it.
-The left field situation is a mess:
- Jonny Gomes, who hit .266, 18 HR, 86 RBI last season, is hitting .208
- Chris Heisey has started 16 of the 49 games in which he has appeared???
- Fred Lewis was suppose to be a good left-handed bat off the bench to replace Laynce Nix. Nix is batting .296, 9 HR, 25 RBI in Washington, while Lewis is batting .225, HR, 6 RBI.
-36 year-old Scott Rolen, an All-Star and Gold Glove winner last season, has been plagued with injury and only has 2 HR, none since April.
-Drew Stubbs leads the majors with 89 strikeouts and is on pace to strikeout 215 times. Didn't we see this already with Adam Dunn?
As bad as its been, the Reds are still 34-33, 4.5 games out of first and it's not time to give up on them just yet.
Last I checked the Reds still have reigning MVP Joey Votto at first and batting third in the lineup. Jay Bruce was the NL Player of the Month for May and is just knocking the cover off the ball right now. Brandon Phillips leads all second baseman in All-Star votes and almost certainly has a Gold Glove locked up already.
Closer, Francisco Cordero, has pitched very well and so has most of the bullpen for the better part of the season. Johnny Cueto has been outstanding since coming off the DL. Mike Leake has pitched very well after coming back up from a stint in the minors and the Reds got a lot of good, young talent in Triple-A.
It's only June and the Reds have 95 games to go and plenty, plenty of time to get back into the thick of things and make another playoff run. Some things have to change though.
Dusty Baker needs to let Heisey play in left field for at least 15 or 20 straight games and figure out if the guy can play or not. Gomes and Lewis are not the answer and everyone wants to see Heisey, so put him out there and if he doesn't work, bring in someone else. At least give Heisey a chance, he has to be better than trotting Gomes and Lewis out there.
Also, the shortstop situation has to be addressed. Either bring up Zach Cozart, who is playing short in Louisville and give him a chance, or trade for someone. Rumors are the Reds might go after Mets SS Jose Reyes, but he's making a lot of money and is a free agent when the season ends. It's not worth trading some of your young talent to rent a guy for 3 or 4 months. As for Cozart, he may not be as good of a defender as Janish, but he's younger than Renteria and a better hitter than both of them.
If the pitching gets better, which it can, and if Aroldis, Homer, Volquez, and Wood can pitch like they did last year, along with Cordero, Arroyo, Cueto and Leake, the Reds should be alright. Also, if the injuries subside and Scott Rolen gets healthy and can contribute more than he is right now, the Reds can certainly challenge the Cardinals and Brewers in the NL Central. Rolen has not played well this season and his time is running out, but the Reds play better when he's in there contributing.
Come July 11, the beginning of the All-Star break, we will know if the Reds are contenders or pretenders. A brutal schedule leading up to the break will not make it easy. Away series in Los Angeles, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Milwaukee, along with Toronto, NY Yankees and Cleveland visiting GABP, will leave the Reds with their hands full.
So, the road back to the postseason will not be easy, but when did anyone say it was going to be easy.
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