Disappointing First Half for the Reds
The Reds have struggled mightily since my last post and have not had the season everyone though they would. As Vince Lombardi use to say, "What the Hell is going on out there?"
With so much promise coming into the season, one word describes it so far, disappointing.
At the All-Star Break, everyone thought the Reds would be in another divisional race with the Cardinals and be bound for another pennant race in October. Right now, the Reds will be watching the playoffs in their living rooms. What happen to the team that won the division last year? Almost everyone is back, it's the same coaching staff, same manager, same ballpark, what the Hell happened?
Plenty of blame to go around for the Reds woes and it's report card time for the Reds first half. Plus possible moves to help turn things around.
An argument could be made that the Reds are the most disappointing team in baseball and since disappointing starts with a D, that's the grade I'll give the Reds. The Reds have played well at times this season and have looked better than they did last year. Yet, other times they look like a minor league ball club and look like they've taken three giant steps backwards from last season. An overall record of 45-47, four games back and fourth in the division behind the Pirates, just doesn't cut it.
Edinson Volquez, 5-4, 5.93 ERA, has been nothing short of awful. He is the worst 1st inning pitcher in the league and with every outing, he makes the Josh Hamilton trade look like one of the worst in baseball history. Homer Bailey has been hurt twice and continues to give up the big home run in tight ball games. Doesn't look like he will ever live up to the hype that surrounded him coming up in the Reds organization.
Bronson Arroyo has had some solid outings, but usually followed by disaster. Bronson has given up a league leading 25 HR, not to mention 71 runs, 67 of which are earned, which is good enough for third worst in baseball. Travis Wood also came in with a lot of promise, but struggled quite a bit and at the break, he's not even on the big league roster. The phrase, "When will Aroldis Chapman become a starter?" has already surfaced and will continue to be heard for the rest of the season.
MVP Joey Votto (.324, 13 HR, 55 RBI, .438 OBP) is having another solid season, but with no true clean up hitter behind him, limits the amount of quality pitches he sees during a game, probably why he has only hit 13 HR. Jay Bruce (.268, 21 HR, 57 RBI) is Mr. Inconsistent with a scorching May sandwiched between a dismal April and May.
Jonny Gomes (.218, 11 HR, 31 RBI, 69 strikeouts) continues to be hot and cold and is still trying to overcome a dreadful start to the season. Drew Stubbs (.250, 11 HR, 32 RBI) has 23 stolen bases and has played solid defense, but has 122 strikeouts and is on pace to strikeout 215 times, eight short of the major league record. All of these guys including Scott Rolen and whoever is playing shortstop, have to hit on a regular basis if the Reds are to have any chance repeating as NL Central champions.
As for Dusty, he continues to stick with his guys that just aren't producing. He stuck with Jonny Gomes, he stuck with Edinson Volquez, he kept putting Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria in at short, he kept Drew Stubbs in the lead off spot too long, he uses Cordero way too often and some of his decisions have fans shaking their heads.
Not all of them, but a decent portion of the Reds losses this season have been because of poor decisions by the manager. Just look at the game on Sunday. Francisco Cordero had thrown a lot of pitches the previous two nights and I know it was a save situation, but why would you bring Coco in for a third straight day. Masset could've pitched the ninth and with the way Chapman was pitching, I might have left him in the game. Dusty has a reputation of being a players manager and having a willingness to stick with his guys no matter what, but it just isn't working. You have to know when to stick with a guy and when to make a change and it seems like Dusty can't see the line between the two.
1. Trade/Release Edinson Volquez
Volquez has been given far too many chances and after two trips to Louisville, he still hasn't gotten it. His stuff is great, but his control and mental capacity to pitch in the big leagues is sub-par. Time for the Reds to part ways with him and try and get something for him before he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. Volquez is probably kicking himself for not signing a multi-year contract last off-season worth over $20 million.
2. Send down Drew Stubbs
Drew continues to struggle and I think he needs a trip to Louisville to work out the kinks in his swing. Stubbs is a great young talent, a solid defender, he has great speed, and pretty good power. If he can become a more polished hitter and cut down on the strikeouts and get on base on a regular basis, he is the ideal lead-off man.
3. Decide on a permanent role for Aroldis Chapman
Is Chapman going to be a closer or a starter? Ever since Aroldis came back from the disabled list, he has been lights out. None of the Brewer hitters came close to making solid contact, Chapman blew fastballs by them and dropped 90 mph sliders that were un-hittable. With Cordero's recent struggles, Chapman, who recorded his first major league save Thursday night, could see more action in the ninth inning.
Or do the Reds make Chapman a starter? Chapman was signed as a starting pitcher and he made the switch to the bullpen last year in the minor leagues. There is no question that Chapman has the stuff to be a starting pitcher, from the nasty slider and the 100+ mph fastball. I think that with some work Chapman could become the ace of the staff and one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. The Reds just have to figure out if they want him starting games or closing them out and they need to figure it out soon. I'd make him a starter and let him pitch the entire game. Two birds with one stone.
4. Fire hitting coach Brook Jacoby
The Reds have one of the best offenses in baseball, but time to start fresh. Players like Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs and Jonny Gomes have the talent to be great hitters, but they all are prone to slumps. A hitting coach is suppose to be there to help you fix problems with your swing and I don't think Jacoby has done a good job of that this season. These guys wouldn't be in the majors if they didn't have the talent to be great hitters, they need a coach who can help them get out of slumps. A new coach to listen too, someone who can bring in a fresh perspective would be to their benefit. Lance McAlister suggested former Reds great Eric Davis. Interesting. How about Barry Larkin?
5. Trade Ramon Hernandez or Ryan Hanigan
With catchers Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal in the minors and on the fast track to the big leagues, the Reds are not going to carry three catchers. Hernandez's contract is up at the end of the season and at 35 who knows how much he has left. Hanigan is a very solid catcher and might fare better on the trade market.
Personally, I would keep Hernandez since he is having a better season and let him mentor Mesoraco. That means trading Ryan Hanigan, maybe to Tampa Bay or San Francisco for a bat or a starting pitcher. Next season if Mesoraco plays well, he will be the starter and Grandal could make the team out of spring training or the Reds could resign Ramon for a cheap price and keep him around one more year to be the backup.
The Reds have 70 games left and their only chance of making the playoffs is winning the division. With the Cardinals and Brewers at 49-43, I think about 90 wins should be good enough to win the NL Central. That means the Reds have to go 45-25 the rest of the way and that will not be easy. If the starting pitching gets better, the bullpen can close out games, the offense hits more on a consistent basis and a big trade is made to add a spark, the Reds will be back playing in October. Their grade for the second half will have to be an A though in every category, if they are to have any chance.
With so much promise coming into the season, one word describes it so far, disappointing.
At the All-Star Break, everyone thought the Reds would be in another divisional race with the Cardinals and be bound for another pennant race in October. Right now, the Reds will be watching the playoffs in their living rooms. What happen to the team that won the division last year? Almost everyone is back, it's the same coaching staff, same manager, same ballpark, what the Hell happened?
Plenty of blame to go around for the Reds woes and it's report card time for the Reds first half. Plus possible moves to help turn things around.
Overall performance: D
| The Reds have fallen flat on their faces so far this season. Associated Press/Jeffery Phelps |
Starting Pitching: D+
It was suppose to be the strongest part of the team and one of the deepest rotations in baseball. So far, it has been the weakest. The Reds came in with six legitimate starters, but that has not been the case. Johnny Cueto has been excellent, 5-3 with an 1.96 ERA and Mike Leake has done well, 8-3 with a 4.27 ERA, since coming back from Louisville. Cueto and Leake get A's, but other than those two, the starting rotation has been filled with inconsistency and poor performance.Edinson Volquez, 5-4, 5.93 ERA, has been nothing short of awful. He is the worst 1st inning pitcher in the league and with every outing, he makes the Josh Hamilton trade look like one of the worst in baseball history. Homer Bailey has been hurt twice and continues to give up the big home run in tight ball games. Doesn't look like he will ever live up to the hype that surrounded him coming up in the Reds organization.
Bronson Arroyo has had some solid outings, but usually followed by disaster. Bronson has given up a league leading 25 HR, not to mention 71 runs, 67 of which are earned, which is good enough for third worst in baseball. Travis Wood also came in with a lot of promise, but struggled quite a bit and at the break, he's not even on the big league roster. The phrase, "When will Aroldis Chapman become a starter?" has already surfaced and will continue to be heard for the rest of the season.
Bullpen: B+
If Cordero hadn't blown it twice against the Brewers this past weekend, I probably would have given them a higher grade. Cordero has become "uh-oh Cordero" and fans faith and patience with him, continues to decline. With the game on the line, he is just not as reliable as he once was and with his contract up after the season, doubtful he will be back. Other than some of Cordero's drama filled 9th innings, the bullpen has been very good. Bray, Ondrusek, Masset, LeCure and Chapman, since he came back up from the minors, have been very, very good. If Cordero continues to struggle, look for Masset and Chapman to get more save opportunities.Offense: B
Besides disappointing, the other word that describes the Reds season so far it's inconsistency. And the offense has been very inconsistent. On nights where the pitching is lights out, the offense is non-existent more often than not. One game they score 10 runs and record 15 hits, then the next night they only manage one run and five hits. The Reds are in the top ten in the National League in runs, hits, home runs, batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and every offensive category, but it sure doesn't feel like it. MVP Joey Votto (.324, 13 HR, 55 RBI, .438 OBP) is having another solid season, but with no true clean up hitter behind him, limits the amount of quality pitches he sees during a game, probably why he has only hit 13 HR. Jay Bruce (.268, 21 HR, 57 RBI) is Mr. Inconsistent with a scorching May sandwiched between a dismal April and May.
Jonny Gomes (.218, 11 HR, 31 RBI, 69 strikeouts) continues to be hot and cold and is still trying to overcome a dreadful start to the season. Drew Stubbs (.250, 11 HR, 32 RBI) has 23 stolen bases and has played solid defense, but has 122 strikeouts and is on pace to strikeout 215 times, eight short of the major league record. All of these guys including Scott Rolen and whoever is playing shortstop, have to hit on a regular basis if the Reds are to have any chance repeating as NL Central champions.
Front Office, Manager: C-
Last season Walt Jocketty was Executive of the Year in Major League Baseball and Dusty Baker was second in NL Manager of the Year voting, the same can't be said this year. Jocketty's unwillingness to make changes, bringing up Zach Cozart to address the shortstop situation, bringing up Dontrelle Willis and not making some sort of changes when it's so obvious that a change needed to be made. It will be very interesting to see what changes Jocketty makes, if any, before the trading deadline July 31st. Walt is the only one who can pull the trigger on a trade, he just has to be willing to do so. As for Dusty, he continues to stick with his guys that just aren't producing. He stuck with Jonny Gomes, he stuck with Edinson Volquez, he kept putting Paul Janish and Edgar Renteria in at short, he kept Drew Stubbs in the lead off spot too long, he uses Cordero way too often and some of his decisions have fans shaking their heads.
Not all of them, but a decent portion of the Reds losses this season have been because of poor decisions by the manager. Just look at the game on Sunday. Francisco Cordero had thrown a lot of pitches the previous two nights and I know it was a save situation, but why would you bring Coco in for a third straight day. Masset could've pitched the ninth and with the way Chapman was pitching, I might have left him in the game. Dusty has a reputation of being a players manager and having a willingness to stick with his guys no matter what, but it just isn't working. You have to know when to stick with a guy and when to make a change and it seems like Dusty can't see the line between the two.
Possible Moves:
It's always fun to come up with things that you would do if you were in charge, so I'll give it a shot. If I'm GM Walt Jocketty, here's what I do.1. Trade/Release Edinson Volquez
Volquez has been given far too many chances and after two trips to Louisville, he still hasn't gotten it. His stuff is great, but his control and mental capacity to pitch in the big leagues is sub-par. Time for the Reds to part ways with him and try and get something for him before he becomes a free agent at the end of the season. Volquez is probably kicking himself for not signing a multi-year contract last off-season worth over $20 million.
2. Send down Drew Stubbs
Drew continues to struggle and I think he needs a trip to Louisville to work out the kinks in his swing. Stubbs is a great young talent, a solid defender, he has great speed, and pretty good power. If he can become a more polished hitter and cut down on the strikeouts and get on base on a regular basis, he is the ideal lead-off man.
3. Decide on a permanent role for Aroldis Chapman
Is Chapman going to be a closer or a starter? Ever since Aroldis came back from the disabled list, he has been lights out. None of the Brewer hitters came close to making solid contact, Chapman blew fastballs by them and dropped 90 mph sliders that were un-hittable. With Cordero's recent struggles, Chapman, who recorded his first major league save Thursday night, could see more action in the ninth inning.
| Should the Reds make the Cuban Missile a starter or a closer? AP Photo/Jeffery Phelps |
4. Fire hitting coach Brook Jacoby
The Reds have one of the best offenses in baseball, but time to start fresh. Players like Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs and Jonny Gomes have the talent to be great hitters, but they all are prone to slumps. A hitting coach is suppose to be there to help you fix problems with your swing and I don't think Jacoby has done a good job of that this season. These guys wouldn't be in the majors if they didn't have the talent to be great hitters, they need a coach who can help them get out of slumps. A new coach to listen too, someone who can bring in a fresh perspective would be to their benefit. Lance McAlister suggested former Reds great Eric Davis. Interesting. How about Barry Larkin?
5. Trade Ramon Hernandez or Ryan Hanigan
With catchers Devin Mesoraco and Yasmani Grandal in the minors and on the fast track to the big leagues, the Reds are not going to carry three catchers. Hernandez's contract is up at the end of the season and at 35 who knows how much he has left. Hanigan is a very solid catcher and might fare better on the trade market.
Personally, I would keep Hernandez since he is having a better season and let him mentor Mesoraco. That means trading Ryan Hanigan, maybe to Tampa Bay or San Francisco for a bat or a starting pitcher. Next season if Mesoraco plays well, he will be the starter and Grandal could make the team out of spring training or the Reds could resign Ramon for a cheap price and keep him around one more year to be the backup.
The Reds have 70 games left and their only chance of making the playoffs is winning the division. With the Cardinals and Brewers at 49-43, I think about 90 wins should be good enough to win the NL Central. That means the Reds have to go 45-25 the rest of the way and that will not be easy. If the starting pitching gets better, the bullpen can close out games, the offense hits more on a consistent basis and a big trade is made to add a spark, the Reds will be back playing in October. Their grade for the second half will have to be an A though in every category, if they are to have any chance.
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