NFL 2015: Week 3 Picks
After two weeks in the NFL, here's what we know.
Nothing.
I certainly haven't figured the NFL out yet. A brutal 5-11 week for picks in Week 2, which I believe is by far the worst week I've ever had picking games.
But that's what makes the NFL so great; you just never know what is going to happen each week.
New to the blog this week is my first ever power rankings. I like to call the AR Top 32 (probably needs a new name), but I think it's a nice addition and gives you an idea on how I see the league.
I'll keep this up to date throughout the year and we'll each week how high or low a team drops in the rankings. If the first two weeks are any indication then we are going to see a lot of movement in the rankings.
I'd also like to give a shoutout to the Sports Happy Hour. C'mob Cincinnati can now be found on the Sports Happy Hour website and I highly recommend you check out their site. Sports Happy Hour is a podcast run by one of my former classmates and it's a great listen. The guys cover all the major sports topics each week and there is a lot of great insight. You can also find the latest Sports Happy Hour podcast on the right side of my blog each week. Here's the link.
Up next, are my picks for Week 3, which I'm hoping are a lot better than last week.
Week 3 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
NY GIANTS over Washington (Thursday, 8:25 P.M. ET, CBS/NFL): If it weren't for poor clock management and fourth quarter turnovers, the Giants would be 2-0. New York has looked well at times the past few weeks, but hasn't been able to put together a complete game together yet. Washington looked good beating the Rams last week with a two-headed rushing attack of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones -- a combined 182-yards and two touchdowns, but I like the Giants to win at home on Thursday night.
Atlanta over DALLAS (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): The Cowboys were in trouble with WR Dez Bryant out for 6-10 weeks with a broken foot, but things went from bad to worse with the news that QB Tony Romo has a broken left clavicle. Dallas was able to hold on to beat a pathetic performance from Philadelphia last week with Brandon Weeded at quarterback, but I think the Cowboys will struggle without Romo and Dez. Matt Cassel was acquired from the Bills this week to backup and possible start for the Cowboys, but no matter who is at quarterback, I don't see them beating the Atlanta Falcons.
Indianapolis over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Andrew Luck and the Colts do not look like a team that has Super Bowl aspirations. They've turned the ball over eight times in two games and it's hard to win when that happens. Marcus Mariota and the Titans came down to Earth a little bit last week in a loss to Cleveland, but Mariota and the Titans will rebound with a good game against the Colts. However, I don't think it will be enough as the Colts get their first win.
CLEVELAND over Oakland (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Who would've thought that after three weeks the Raiders or Browns would be 2-1? I know, I certainly didn't. Johnny Manziel played well last week against Tennessee, but QB Josh McCown will return as the starter having passed his concussion test. With the return of McCown, a solid Browns defense and the game being in Cleveland, I like the Browns.
Cincinnati over BALTIMORE (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): According to ESPN's Jamison Hensley, here is what Ravens head coach John Harbaugh had to say about the Bengals.
NEW ENGLAND over Jacksonville (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Tom Brady through the first two games: 754-yards passing, seven touchdowns, zero interceptions, 69.2 completion percentage and a QBR of 80.8. And Brady is 38-years old. He looks better than ever and the Patriots offense maybe the best in the NFL. No one has a answer for Brady, WR Julian Edelman or TE Rob Gronkowski and that's not good news for the Jaguars. Patriots win big at home.
CAROLINA over New Orleans (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Saint QB Drew Brees is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against divisional opponent, Carolina, due to a bruised rotor cuff. Brees and the Saints have not played well in two games this season and one has to wonder if the window has officially closed. New Orleans, once unbeatable at home, has now lost six straight home games dating back to Week 10 last season. The Panthers haven't wowed me with their two wins over Jacksonville and Houston, but they are good enough to be a lackluster Saints team with or without Drew Brees.
NY JETS over Philadelphia (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Here's a stat I thought I'd never see when the season started. Eagles RB DeMarco Murray's rushing stats after two games this season, 21 carries for 11-yards. Yikes. The up-tempo offense that Chip Kelly's Eagles are known for has stalled and going up against one of the best defenses in the league, the New York Jets, won't help matters. Jets win a low scoring game.
HOUSTON over Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston played much better last week than he did in his first NFL start, but I don't take much stock in the win since it was against a bad New Orleans Saints team. The Saints are now the team they once were and although it was a good win for Tampa, I still expect them to struggle this season. Houston has only lost by a touchdown in their first two games and I think the tide will turn for the Texans as they get the win at home.
MINNESOTA over San Diego (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Having watched the Chargers-Bengals last week, I really wasn't impressed with San Diego. They moved the ball at times on offense, but not consistently. I feel like they didn't get the ball RB Melvin Gordon enough after got off to a fast start in the first half. On defense, they did not sack QB Andy Dalton one time and they had no answer for TE Tyler Eifert or RB Giovani Bernard, who ran for 123-yards. The Chargers inability to stop the run will be tested by the best running back in the league on Sunday, Adrian Peterson. The last time Peterson faced the Chargers he ran for an NFL record 296-yards. I don't expect him to run for that many on Sunday, but I do except him to run enough to lead the Vikings to a win.
Pittsburgh over ST. LOUIS (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): If the Patriots have the best offense in the league, then the Steelers may have the second best. QB Ben Roethlisberger has been lethal the first two games in large part to WR Antonio Brown's ridiculous numbers, 18 receptions for 328-yards and two touchdowns through Week 2. The Rams surprised everyone with their Week 1 win over the Seahawks, but a loss to the Redskins last week has me questioning just how good they really are. I like Pittsburgh in this one.
ARIZONA over San Francisco (Sunday, 4:05 P.M. ET, FOX): I know it's early and the Cardinals have beaten the Saints and Bears, but they look like Super Bowl contender in my eyes. QB Carson Palmer is playing better than he ever has and the same could be said for WR Larry Fitzgerald. Both look rejuvenated and I expect them to put up a lot of points against a 49ers defense that surrendered 43 to the Steelers last week.
Buffalo over MIAMI (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Rex Ryan and the Bills could not live up to the hype they created -- mainly Rex Ryan --for last week's matchup with the Patriots. Buffalo rally back to make it a game, but it's going to be hard to win games when you give up 40 points and 507-yards of offense to the Patriots. I still think Rex has a good team up in Buffalo and his defense will rebound from a horrible performance. The jury is still out on the Dolphins, but I expect them to give the Bills a game.
SEATTLE over Chicago (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Great stat from Peter King in his MMQB column this week "If I were offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, I'd be incorporating Jimmy Graham far more into the game plan as a post-up intermediate presence; Graham has been targeted only 10 times in eight quarters. It's ridiculous that he has only 62 yards worth of catches so far. Wilson's got to look for him more often." I could not agree more. If the Seahawks are to be better on offense, they have to get the ball to Jimmy Graham. With the Bears coming to Seattle, Sunday is a perfect time to throw the ball to Graham early and often. Also, safety Kam Chancellor returns to the Seahawks secondary after holding out the last two weeks. That's not good news for QB Jimmy Clausen as he will be starting at quarterback for the Bears with Jay Cutler out with a hamstring injury.
Denver over DETROIT (Sunday, 8:30 P.M. ET, NBC): Here is what's not going right for the Lions. Detroit surrendered an 18-point lead in Week 1 against the Chargers and last week QB Matthew Stafford was beat up, getting sacked once and being hit eight times. Stafford is listed as probable with a rib injury sustained last week. Also, the Lions have no running game. They ran for just 69-yards in Week 1 and only 38-yards last week. Things won't get easier for the Lions as the Broncos have the number one pass defense in the league through two weeks. Denver has beaten the Ravens and Chiefs by the skin of their teeth and Peyton Manning has not looked like the Peyton Manning we are custom too. However, I like the Broncos to get the win on Sunday night.
GREEN BAY over Kansas City (Monday, 8:30 P.M. ET, ESPN): Things could not have gone differently for the Packers and Chiefs last week. Green Bay beat the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks and looked good doing it, while the Chiefs fumbled away an opportunity to take the Broncos to overtime. I think Kansas City will turn things around with that solid defense and Jamaal Charles running the ball, but no one beats the Packers at Lambeau, especially on a Monday night.
Last Week: 5-11
Overall: 15-17 "C'mon Man!"
Nothing.
 |
| Week 3 Edition of the AR Top 32 Rankings. |
But that's what makes the NFL so great; you just never know what is going to happen each week.
New to the blog this week is my first ever power rankings. I like to call the AR Top 32 (probably needs a new name), but I think it's a nice addition and gives you an idea on how I see the league.
I'll keep this up to date throughout the year and we'll each week how high or low a team drops in the rankings. If the first two weeks are any indication then we are going to see a lot of movement in the rankings.
I'd also like to give a shoutout to the Sports Happy Hour. C'mob Cincinnati can now be found on the Sports Happy Hour website and I highly recommend you check out their site. Sports Happy Hour is a podcast run by one of my former classmates and it's a great listen. The guys cover all the major sports topics each week and there is a lot of great insight. You can also find the latest Sports Happy Hour podcast on the right side of my blog each week. Here's the link.
Up next, are my picks for Week 3, which I'm hoping are a lot better than last week.
Week 3 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
NY GIANTS over Washington (Thursday, 8:25 P.M. ET, CBS/NFL): If it weren't for poor clock management and fourth quarter turnovers, the Giants would be 2-0. New York has looked well at times the past few weeks, but hasn't been able to put together a complete game together yet. Washington looked good beating the Rams last week with a two-headed rushing attack of Alfred Morris and Matt Jones -- a combined 182-yards and two touchdowns, but I like the Giants to win at home on Thursday night.
Atlanta over DALLAS (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): The Cowboys were in trouble with WR Dez Bryant out for 6-10 weeks with a broken foot, but things went from bad to worse with the news that QB Tony Romo has a broken left clavicle. Dallas was able to hold on to beat a pathetic performance from Philadelphia last week with Brandon Weeded at quarterback, but I think the Cowboys will struggle without Romo and Dez. Matt Cassel was acquired from the Bills this week to backup and possible start for the Cowboys, but no matter who is at quarterback, I don't see them beating the Atlanta Falcons.
Indianapolis over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Andrew Luck and the Colts do not look like a team that has Super Bowl aspirations. They've turned the ball over eight times in two games and it's hard to win when that happens. Marcus Mariota and the Titans came down to Earth a little bit last week in a loss to Cleveland, but Mariota and the Titans will rebound with a good game against the Colts. However, I don't think it will be enough as the Colts get their first win.
CLEVELAND over Oakland (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Who would've thought that after three weeks the Raiders or Browns would be 2-1? I know, I certainly didn't. Johnny Manziel played well last week against Tennessee, but QB Josh McCown will return as the starter having passed his concussion test. With the return of McCown, a solid Browns defense and the game being in Cleveland, I like the Browns.
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| TE Tyler Eifert and the Bengals have their fan fired up after their 2-0 start to the 2015 season. (The Cincinnati Enquirer/Sam Greene) |
"We have great respect for their coaches [and] the way they play. Obviously, it starts with (wide receiver) A.J. Green, but the whole cast of characters there on offense is very talented and gifted--tight ends, running backs, quarterback. The whole group is very good, and they have a heck of an offensive line. I'd say they're the complete package, talent wise."Pretty high praise coming from a head coach who happens to be a division rival and a Super Bowl champion. The Bengals have look really good the first two weeks and they will be tested in Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off two losses on the West Coast and they can't afford to start the season 0-3. It's desperation time for Joe Flacco and Co., so the Bengals better be prepare, which I think they will be. Cincinnati wins a close one.
NEW ENGLAND over Jacksonville (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Tom Brady through the first two games: 754-yards passing, seven touchdowns, zero interceptions, 69.2 completion percentage and a QBR of 80.8. And Brady is 38-years old. He looks better than ever and the Patriots offense maybe the best in the NFL. No one has a answer for Brady, WR Julian Edelman or TE Rob Gronkowski and that's not good news for the Jaguars. Patriots win big at home.
CAROLINA over New Orleans (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Saint QB Drew Brees is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against divisional opponent, Carolina, due to a bruised rotor cuff. Brees and the Saints have not played well in two games this season and one has to wonder if the window has officially closed. New Orleans, once unbeatable at home, has now lost six straight home games dating back to Week 10 last season. The Panthers haven't wowed me with their two wins over Jacksonville and Houston, but they are good enough to be a lackluster Saints team with or without Drew Brees.
NY JETS over Philadelphia (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Here's a stat I thought I'd never see when the season started. Eagles RB DeMarco Murray's rushing stats after two games this season, 21 carries for 11-yards. Yikes. The up-tempo offense that Chip Kelly's Eagles are known for has stalled and going up against one of the best defenses in the league, the New York Jets, won't help matters. Jets win a low scoring game.
HOUSTON over Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston played much better last week than he did in his first NFL start, but I don't take much stock in the win since it was against a bad New Orleans Saints team. The Saints are now the team they once were and although it was a good win for Tampa, I still expect them to struggle this season. Houston has only lost by a touchdown in their first two games and I think the tide will turn for the Texans as they get the win at home.
MINNESOTA over San Diego (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Having watched the Chargers-Bengals last week, I really wasn't impressed with San Diego. They moved the ball at times on offense, but not consistently. I feel like they didn't get the ball RB Melvin Gordon enough after got off to a fast start in the first half. On defense, they did not sack QB Andy Dalton one time and they had no answer for TE Tyler Eifert or RB Giovani Bernard, who ran for 123-yards. The Chargers inability to stop the run will be tested by the best running back in the league on Sunday, Adrian Peterson. The last time Peterson faced the Chargers he ran for an NFL record 296-yards. I don't expect him to run for that many on Sunday, but I do except him to run enough to lead the Vikings to a win.
Pittsburgh over ST. LOUIS (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): If the Patriots have the best offense in the league, then the Steelers may have the second best. QB Ben Roethlisberger has been lethal the first two games in large part to WR Antonio Brown's ridiculous numbers, 18 receptions for 328-yards and two touchdowns through Week 2. The Rams surprised everyone with their Week 1 win over the Seahawks, but a loss to the Redskins last week has me questioning just how good they really are. I like Pittsburgh in this one.
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| Arizona is off to an impressive start in 2015. (Photo Courtesy of AZCardinals.com) |
SEATTLE over Chicago (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Great stat from Peter King in his MMQB column this week "If I were offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, I'd be incorporating Jimmy Graham far more into the game plan as a post-up intermediate presence; Graham has been targeted only 10 times in eight quarters. It's ridiculous that he has only 62 yards worth of catches so far. Wilson's got to look for him more often." I could not agree more. If the Seahawks are to be better on offense, they have to get the ball to Jimmy Graham. With the Bears coming to Seattle, Sunday is a perfect time to throw the ball to Graham early and often. Also, safety Kam Chancellor returns to the Seahawks secondary after holding out the last two weeks. That's not good news for QB Jimmy Clausen as he will be starting at quarterback for the Bears with Jay Cutler out with a hamstring injury.
Denver over DETROIT (Sunday, 8:30 P.M. ET, NBC): Here is what's not going right for the Lions. Detroit surrendered an 18-point lead in Week 1 against the Chargers and last week QB Matthew Stafford was beat up, getting sacked once and being hit eight times. Stafford is listed as probable with a rib injury sustained last week. Also, the Lions have no running game. They ran for just 69-yards in Week 1 and only 38-yards last week. Things won't get easier for the Lions as the Broncos have the number one pass defense in the league through two weeks. Denver has beaten the Ravens and Chiefs by the skin of their teeth and Peyton Manning has not looked like the Peyton Manning we are custom too. However, I like the Broncos to get the win on Sunday night.
GREEN BAY over Kansas City (Monday, 8:30 P.M. ET, ESPN): Things could not have gone differently for the Packers and Chiefs last week. Green Bay beat the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks and looked good doing it, while the Chiefs fumbled away an opportunity to take the Broncos to overtime. I think Kansas City will turn things around with that solid defense and Jamaal Charles running the ball, but no one beats the Packers at Lambeau, especially on a Monday night.
Last Week: 5-11
Overall: 15-17 "C'mon Man!"
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