NFL 2015: Week 11 Picks
Week 10 in the NFL went something like this...
First off, if you correctly picked the 14 NFL games last week and bet money on each, you won yourself a boatload of cash, because there were a ton of upsets.
Patriots barely beat their Achilles heel, the New York Giants, to stay undefeated.
Panthers are still undefeated too.
Bengals are not after, somehow, losing to the Texans on Monday night.
Sam Bradford got hurt, again.
Landry Jones got hurt too; good thing the Steelers backup was Ben Roethlisberger.
Lions won at Lambeau for the first time since '91. What has happened to the Packers?
Seahawks may miss the playoffs after losing, again.
Saints may have the worst defense in the history of football. Rob Ryan got fired too.
Cowboys can't win without Tony Romo. He should be getting MVP votes in my opinion for that very reason.
Browns are terrible. Manziel to start the rest of the season though.
Vikings are one of the best teams in football.
Bills and Jets uniforms from last Thursday were hideous and they were even worse if you're colorblind.
And Peyton Manning's career is just about over. Can't believe I just wrote that.
Did I cover everything from last week?
I think so.
On to my picks, can't get much worse than it did last week with a 5-9 performance.
Week 11 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL): Two things to talk about for this game. First, the uniforms. The NFL's "Color Rush" program is a test of new all color uniforms for four games this season. The first was last week during the Bills-Jets game that looked liked Christmas, which if you are colorblind, the game was not easy to watch. Now, it's the Jaguars and Titans turn. I like the Titans powder blue uniforms, but the Jaguars are just awful -- they are baby puke yellow/brown if you ask me. As for the game, the winner of this one is still alive for the AFC South title. Titans are 2-7 and the Jaguars are 3-6, but with the Colts and Texans atop the division at 4-5, everybody still has a chance. I think Jacksonville has a better team and they'll win at home in ugly uniforms.
Oakland over DETROIT (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Lions did just about everything they could possibly do to give the Packers the game last week in Lambeau -- two missed extra points and Calvin Johnson not being able to field an onside kick to name a few -- but Detroit prevailed for their first win at Lambeau since 1991. I don't expect the Lions to win many more games, however. Switching gears to the Raiders, they've been up and down this season, albeit consistently. After their Week 1 loss to the Bengals, the Raiders have won two, then lost two, followed by two straight wins and two straight losses. Kudos for consistency, Oakland. So, if the trend continues, which I think it will, the Raiders will not only win this week in Detroit, but next week at Tennessee as well.
ATLANTA over Indianapolis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Atlanta is 6-3, which is good enough for a playoff spot if the season ended today, however, their three losses are against the Saints, Buccaneers and 49ers. If you are going to win in the playoffs or even make a run at the playoffs of that matter, you cannot lose games to teams under .500. The trend for the Falcons could continue on Sunday when the face the 4-5 Indianapolis Colts who will be without QB Andrew Luck. Matt Hasselbeck will again take over for the injured Luck and he's done well this season leading the Colts to two wins and throwing for 495 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Hasselbeck will keep the Colts in the game, but I like the Falcons to win a close game.
NY Jets over HOUSTON (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Tip of the hat to defensive coordinator Romero Crennel and the Houston Texans defense. Houston has given up just 12 points in the last two games and they stifled Andy Dalton and the undefeated Bengals on Monday night to give them their first loss of the season. At 4-5, the Texans are tied with the Colts for the AFC South lead with seven games to play. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Texans win this game, but I'm going with the Jets. QB Brian Hoyer is going to be out with a concussion he suffered in Cincinnati and I don't think T.J. Yates can beat the Jets -- the only team he can seem to beat is the Bengals, who he's beaten three times.
PHILADELPHIA over Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): QB Sam Bradford is dealing not only with a shoulder injury, but a concussion as well, meaning his status for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers is up in the air. If Bradford can't go, which it doesn't seem like he will, Mark Sanchez will get the start at quarterback. Sanchez started nine games for the Eagles last season going 5-4, throwing for 2,418 yards, 14 TD, 11 INT and a QB Rating of 88.4. I thought Sanchez looked good in Chip Kelly's offense last season and I think he'll play well enough to get the Eagles the win.
Denver over CHICAGO (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Since Jay Cutler returned from injury the Bears are 4-2 and two of those wins came without RB Matt Forte. The resurgence of the Bears may be too late though as the Packers and Vikings continue to be atop the division, but Chicago could still make a run. It will have to start this Sunday against Brock Osweiler and the Broncos. Peyton Manning is out with a foot injury and Osweiler, the fourth year quarterback out of Arizona St., will be making his first career NFL start. Denver has lost two straight, but it's not time to panic yet. The Broncos still have a good defense and I really do think Osweiler will play well, well enough to lead the Broncos to a win in Chicago.
BALTIMORE over St. Louis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Normally, I would've taken the Rams here, but they're making a quarterback change and that's cause for alarm in my eyes. Nick Foles is out and Case Keenum is in for St. Louis Sunday in Baltimore. Foles doesn't have overwhelming stats -- 1,678 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT, 75.9 QB Rating -- and the Rams have lost two straight to fall to 4-5, but I don't like the change. You have to have a good quarterback to win in this league and I believe Nick Foles gives the Rams the best chance to win. Baltimore is 2-7, but they haven't lost a game by more than eight points the entire season. I like the Ravens at home to beat Keenum and the Rams.
Dallas over MIAMI (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): This game is pretty simply. If QB Tony Romo is back under center for the Cowboys, which he is expected to be, I like Dallas. They're 2-0 with Romo and 0-7 without him. WR Dez Bryant is also healthy and with him and Romo back on the field together, I like the Cowboys to end their seven game losing streak. If for whatever reason Romo does not suit up, I like the Dolphins.
CAROLINA over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): There aren't many games left on Carolina's schedule that I see them losing and this is not one of them. If this game was in Washington, I might take the Redskins here, but the game is in Charlotte on Sunday. The key for the Redskins to pull the upset is QB Kirk Cousins. At home this season, Cousins has thrown for 1,330 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT and has a QB Rating of 112.8. On the road, Cousins has thrown for 948 yards, 4 TD, 7 INT and has a QB Rating of 66.3. Quite the contrast. I haven't seen enough consistently good play from Cousins and the Redskins this season, especially on the road, to take them in an upset of the Panthers.
Kansas City over SAN DIEGO (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): Everyone, even Chiefs fans, gave up on Kansas City after their 1-5 start and the loss of RB Jamaal Charles, but they've rebounded. Kansas City has won three straight against Pittsburgh, Detroit and Denver and with a win over 2-7 San Diego, they can get back to .500. With two games against the Chargers and Raiders, plus games against the Ravens, Browns and Bills, the Chiefs may not be out of it just yet. They can't afford a loss to division rival San Diego on Sunday and I don't think that'll happen. Chiefs win.
MINNESOTA over Green Bay (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): What in the world has happened to Green Bay? Four weeks ago they were on their bye week at 6-0 and looked like the best team in the NFC. Now, they've lost three straight, including last week's horrible loss to the then 1-7 Lions at Lambeau Field. Minnesota on the other hand has won five straight and is running all over teams. The Vikings have the number one rushing attack in the league with RB Adrian Peterson and they're only giving up 17.1 PPG, second best in the league. Until I see the Packers play well, it's hard for me to pick them. I love what Mike Zimmer has done in Minnesota and I like the Vikings in this NFC North showdown.
SEATTLE over San Francisco (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Two or three years ago, this was one of the best match ups of the entire NFL season. Two of the most physical teams in football, grinding it out for 60 minutes. Oh, how times have changed. The 49ers have benched QB Colin Kaepernick for Blaine Gabbert and the two-time reigning NFC champion Seattle Seahawks may miss out on the playoffs altogether. With that being said, the 49ers are 0-4 on the road this season and Blaine Gabbert going up against the Seahawks defense on the road is not a matchup I like. Seahawks get a much-needed win.
Cincinnati over ARIZONA (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): It was going to happen eventually, I just didn't think it would be against the Houston Texans. The Cincinnati Bengals played awful on Monday night and suffered their first loss of the season. The Bengals inability to protect Andy Dalton -- aka block J.J. Watt -- run the ball and costly penalties are the reasons they lost that game. So many people are blaming Andy Dalton, yes he did throw a bad interception, but he had zero time to throw and his receivers, particularly TE Tyler Eifert, dropped too many good passes. It was a wake up call for the Bengals and now they have their third straight primetime game in a row in Arizona against former Bengal, Carson Palmer and the Cardinals.
Arizona has won three straight and in my opinion, are the best team in the NFC. Yes, I think they're better than Carolina. Carson Palmer was Marvin Lewis' first pick as head coach of the Bengals and Carson played in Cincinnati from 2004-10, leading the Bengals to their first playoff game in 15 years in 2005. Palmer set then Bengals records for passing yards and passing touchdowns in single season -- Andy Dalton has since broken those records -- and is third on the Bengals all-time passing list. Palmer told the media this week that,
NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): If the Patriots are to lose a game this season, this could be one of them. WR Julian Edelman, one of Tom Brady's favorite targets, is out with a broken foot. Combine that with the fact the Bills have won two-straight and have looked much better both on offense and defense since QB Tyrod Taylor returned from injury -- they've outscored their opponents 55-34 the last two games -- the Bills have a chance to upset the Patriots on Monday night. However, I just don't see it happening. New England wins a close one, most likely via a fourth quarter comeback led by Tom Brady.
Bye: Cleveland, New York Giants, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
Last Week: 5-9
Overall: 86-60 (.589)
First off, if you correctly picked the 14 NFL games last week and bet money on each, you won yourself a boatload of cash, because there were a ton of upsets.
Patriots barely beat their Achilles heel, the New York Giants, to stay undefeated.
Panthers are still undefeated too.
Bengals are not after, somehow, losing to the Texans on Monday night.
Sam Bradford got hurt, again.
Landry Jones got hurt too; good thing the Steelers backup was Ben Roethlisberger.
Lions won at Lambeau for the first time since '91. What has happened to the Packers?
Seahawks may miss the playoffs after losing, again.
 |
| How long before Rex Ryan hires his unemployed brother, Rob? (Photo by Michael DeMocker, NOLA.com) |
Cowboys can't win without Tony Romo. He should be getting MVP votes in my opinion for that very reason.
Browns are terrible. Manziel to start the rest of the season though.
Vikings are one of the best teams in football.
Bills and Jets uniforms from last Thursday were hideous and they were even worse if you're colorblind.
And Peyton Manning's career is just about over. Can't believe I just wrote that.
Did I cover everything from last week?
I think so.
On to my picks, can't get much worse than it did last week with a 5-9 performance.
Week 11 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL): Two things to talk about for this game. First, the uniforms. The NFL's "Color Rush" program is a test of new all color uniforms for four games this season. The first was last week during the Bills-Jets game that looked liked Christmas, which if you are colorblind, the game was not easy to watch. Now, it's the Jaguars and Titans turn. I like the Titans powder blue uniforms, but the Jaguars are just awful -- they are baby puke yellow/brown if you ask me. As for the game, the winner of this one is still alive for the AFC South title. Titans are 2-7 and the Jaguars are 3-6, but with the Colts and Texans atop the division at 4-5, everybody still has a chance. I think Jacksonville has a better team and they'll win at home in ugly uniforms.
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| The uniforms the Titans and Jaguars will wear on Thursday night. (Image courtesy of @Uniformswag) |
ATLANTA over Indianapolis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Atlanta is 6-3, which is good enough for a playoff spot if the season ended today, however, their three losses are against the Saints, Buccaneers and 49ers. If you are going to win in the playoffs or even make a run at the playoffs of that matter, you cannot lose games to teams under .500. The trend for the Falcons could continue on Sunday when the face the 4-5 Indianapolis Colts who will be without QB Andrew Luck. Matt Hasselbeck will again take over for the injured Luck and he's done well this season leading the Colts to two wins and throwing for 495 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. Hasselbeck will keep the Colts in the game, but I like the Falcons to win a close game.
NY Jets over HOUSTON (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Tip of the hat to defensive coordinator Romero Crennel and the Houston Texans defense. Houston has given up just 12 points in the last two games and they stifled Andy Dalton and the undefeated Bengals on Monday night to give them their first loss of the season. At 4-5, the Texans are tied with the Colts for the AFC South lead with seven games to play. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Texans win this game, but I'm going with the Jets. QB Brian Hoyer is going to be out with a concussion he suffered in Cincinnati and I don't think T.J. Yates can beat the Jets -- the only team he can seem to beat is the Bengals, who he's beaten three times.
PHILADELPHIA over Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): QB Sam Bradford is dealing not only with a shoulder injury, but a concussion as well, meaning his status for Sunday's game against the Buccaneers is up in the air. If Bradford can't go, which it doesn't seem like he will, Mark Sanchez will get the start at quarterback. Sanchez started nine games for the Eagles last season going 5-4, throwing for 2,418 yards, 14 TD, 11 INT and a QB Rating of 88.4. I thought Sanchez looked good in Chip Kelly's offense last season and I think he'll play well enough to get the Eagles the win.
Denver over CHICAGO (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Since Jay Cutler returned from injury the Bears are 4-2 and two of those wins came without RB Matt Forte. The resurgence of the Bears may be too late though as the Packers and Vikings continue to be atop the division, but Chicago could still make a run. It will have to start this Sunday against Brock Osweiler and the Broncos. Peyton Manning is out with a foot injury and Osweiler, the fourth year quarterback out of Arizona St., will be making his first career NFL start. Denver has lost two straight, but it's not time to panic yet. The Broncos still have a good defense and I really do think Osweiler will play well, well enough to lead the Broncos to a win in Chicago.
BALTIMORE over St. Louis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Normally, I would've taken the Rams here, but they're making a quarterback change and that's cause for alarm in my eyes. Nick Foles is out and Case Keenum is in for St. Louis Sunday in Baltimore. Foles doesn't have overwhelming stats -- 1,678 yards, 7 TD, 6 INT, 75.9 QB Rating -- and the Rams have lost two straight to fall to 4-5, but I don't like the change. You have to have a good quarterback to win in this league and I believe Nick Foles gives the Rams the best chance to win. Baltimore is 2-7, but they haven't lost a game by more than eight points the entire season. I like the Ravens at home to beat Keenum and the Rams.
Dallas over MIAMI (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): This game is pretty simply. If QB Tony Romo is back under center for the Cowboys, which he is expected to be, I like Dallas. They're 2-0 with Romo and 0-7 without him. WR Dez Bryant is also healthy and with him and Romo back on the field together, I like the Cowboys to end their seven game losing streak. If for whatever reason Romo does not suit up, I like the Dolphins.
CAROLINA over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): There aren't many games left on Carolina's schedule that I see them losing and this is not one of them. If this game was in Washington, I might take the Redskins here, but the game is in Charlotte on Sunday. The key for the Redskins to pull the upset is QB Kirk Cousins. At home this season, Cousins has thrown for 1,330 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT and has a QB Rating of 112.8. On the road, Cousins has thrown for 948 yards, 4 TD, 7 INT and has a QB Rating of 66.3. Quite the contrast. I haven't seen enough consistently good play from Cousins and the Redskins this season, especially on the road, to take them in an upset of the Panthers.
Kansas City over SAN DIEGO (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): Everyone, even Chiefs fans, gave up on Kansas City after their 1-5 start and the loss of RB Jamaal Charles, but they've rebounded. Kansas City has won three straight against Pittsburgh, Detroit and Denver and with a win over 2-7 San Diego, they can get back to .500. With two games against the Chargers and Raiders, plus games against the Ravens, Browns and Bills, the Chiefs may not be out of it just yet. They can't afford a loss to division rival San Diego on Sunday and I don't think that'll happen. Chiefs win.
MINNESOTA over Green Bay (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): What in the world has happened to Green Bay? Four weeks ago they were on their bye week at 6-0 and looked like the best team in the NFC. Now, they've lost three straight, including last week's horrible loss to the then 1-7 Lions at Lambeau Field. Minnesota on the other hand has won five straight and is running all over teams. The Vikings have the number one rushing attack in the league with RB Adrian Peterson and they're only giving up 17.1 PPG, second best in the league. Until I see the Packers play well, it's hard for me to pick them. I love what Mike Zimmer has done in Minnesota and I like the Vikings in this NFC North showdown.
SEATTLE over San Francisco (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Two or three years ago, this was one of the best match ups of the entire NFL season. Two of the most physical teams in football, grinding it out for 60 minutes. Oh, how times have changed. The 49ers have benched QB Colin Kaepernick for Blaine Gabbert and the two-time reigning NFC champion Seattle Seahawks may miss out on the playoffs altogether. With that being said, the 49ers are 0-4 on the road this season and Blaine Gabbert going up against the Seahawks defense on the road is not a matchup I like. Seahawks get a much-needed win.
Cincinnati over ARIZONA (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): It was going to happen eventually, I just didn't think it would be against the Houston Texans. The Cincinnati Bengals played awful on Monday night and suffered their first loss of the season. The Bengals inability to protect Andy Dalton -- aka block J.J. Watt -- run the ball and costly penalties are the reasons they lost that game. So many people are blaming Andy Dalton, yes he did throw a bad interception, but he had zero time to throw and his receivers, particularly TE Tyler Eifert, dropped too many good passes. It was a wake up call for the Bengals and now they have their third straight primetime game in a row in Arizona against former Bengal, Carson Palmer and the Cardinals.
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| Carson Palmer faces off against Andy Dalton on Sunday night. (Rob Schumacher/azcentral sports/USA TODAY Sports) |
"Any time you play a team where you spent some time, and especially for as much time as I spent there, it's not just another game. I'm solely focused on this and we're solely focused on this."Expect Palmer and the Cardinals to play well Sunday night and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won easily. I am taking the Bengals in this one though. I know Cincinnati managed only six points against Houston, but I just can't see the Bengals offense playing that poorly two weeks in a row. The loss to the Texans was a wake up call and I think the Bengals will respond with a close win out in the desert.
NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): If the Patriots are to lose a game this season, this could be one of them. WR Julian Edelman, one of Tom Brady's favorite targets, is out with a broken foot. Combine that with the fact the Bills have won two-straight and have looked much better both on offense and defense since QB Tyrod Taylor returned from injury -- they've outscored their opponents 55-34 the last two games -- the Bills have a chance to upset the Patriots on Monday night. However, I just don't see it happening. New England wins a close one, most likely via a fourth quarter comeback led by Tom Brady.
Bye: Cleveland, New York Giants, New Orleans, Pittsburgh
Last Week: 5-9
Overall: 86-60 (.589)
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