Eight teams already in trouble after two games, plus Week 3 picks
Two games into the season and for some teams the season is already over.
Okay, it's the NFL, so anything can happen, but history is not on the side of those teams who are 0-2 to start the season.
Since the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, only 12 percent of teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs. And it gets even worse if you start 0-3.
According to an article by The Buffalo News, since 2002, none of the 69 teams to start the season 0-3 made the playoffs. Who was the last team to start 0-3 and make the playoffs, you ask? The 1998 Buffalo Bills, who went 10-3 the rest of the season.
The Bills are one of eight teams to start this season 0-2, so you can see why the Buffalo media is on top of the historical data against the Bills chances for the 2016 season. It's not looking good. Have to wonder if Rex Ryan will get fired if the Bills miss the playoffs, again.
As for all you fans out there, if you root for the Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars, Colts, Browns, Redskins, Bears, or Saints, you will have to hope history does not repeat itself.
If I was a betting man, my money would be on none of these teams to make the playoffs.
The AFC teams have a tougher road in my eyes with the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders all likely to be in contention for the playoffs. Doesn't leave much room for error if you're one of the teams I mentioned above.
In the NFC, the road isn't as tough. Carolina and the New York Giants look like the best teams after two weeks, with the Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Cardinals ultimately being in contention come December. We'll see about the Vikings. They're going to miss Adrian Peterson, but they do have a great defense. Anyway, there's a little more room for losses, but not much.
Come December I expect none of the 0-2 teams to be in contention for the playoffs. A team could get hot and win six or seven in a row to get back in it, but I'd doubt it. Stranger things have happened though.
On to Week 3 and my picks.
Week 3 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Houston over NEW ENGLAND (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network, Twitter): No Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo in this one, so the Patriots will start Jacoby Brissett, a rookie from N.C. State, at quarterback. The emergency QB in case you're wondering will be WR Julian Edelman -- he played QB in college at Kent State. This is a classic game where the Patriots come out with a rookie quarterback against a top five defense and somehow find a way to win. I'll probably regret it, but I'm not picking the Patriots this week. Bill Belichick may be a genius but, the Texans defense leads the league with nine sacks and I believe they have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They won't make it easy on Brissett and I like Houston to win. With that being said, the Patriots will win and I'll be proven wrong by them, again.
Arizona over BUFFALO (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): It's never a good sign when you fire your offensive coordinator after just two games. The Bills did just that this past week though after falling to the Jets, 37-31, and you have to wonder what in the world is going on in Buffalo. I don't think the Bills will turn things around, which could mean the end of the Rex Ryan era in Buffalo. Arizona played much better last week after losing to the Tom Bradyless Patriots in Week 1 and I like them to send Buffalo to that dreaded 0-3 record.
Oakland over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Good news for the Raiders is that they have the number one offense in the NFL, averaging 470 YPG. Bad news is they have the worst defense in the league, giving up a whopping 517.5 YPG! If the Raiders can figure it out on defense, they'll continue to win games. Maybe they'll figure it out in Nashville against the Titans. Anyway, I'm going with the Raiders on the road.
MIAMI over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Season is over for the loser of this one and I think that team will be the Browns. Cleveland played better last week against the Ravens, but you can't give up a 20-point lead at home against a divisional opponent. As for the Dolphins, they're desperate for a win. Maybe their first home game will bring them some luck. That and the fact they're playing the Browns.
JACKSONVILLE over Baltimore (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Common Jaguars! I picked you to be my dark horse and this is how you start off the season?! I still think Jacksonville has the talent to make the playoffs. Yes, they're 0-2, but they had to play Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 1 and had to fly all the way out to San Diego last week. I'm still not sold on the Ravens, they've beaten the Bills and Browns, not exactly signature wins, and I think (hope) the Jaguars turn it around this week.
GREEN BAY over Detroit (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The Packers just didn't look right on offense Sunday night. I know the Vikings have a great defense, but I expected more Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense. After two road games, the Packers finally get to have a home game at Lambeau Field against the Lions, who never seem to play well in Green Bay. Rodgers and the offense will play better as the Packers turn things around at home.
CINCINNATI over Denver (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Big game for the Bengals on Sunday. Having played terrible last week against the Steelers, the Bengals need a win to avoid falling to 1-2 and having a losing record, something they're not very familiar with since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback. Two things need to happen if the Bengals are to defeat the defending Super Bowl champs. One, the defensive line has to get pressure on Trevor Siemian. The Bengals recorded only one sack last week against Ben Roethlisberger and they need to pressure Siemian and force him to make some bad throws. Second, the Bengals have to run the football. Cincinnati has only rushed for 103-yards in two games and is averaging 2.8-yards per carry. Abysmal. Denver has the best defense in the league and even though they'll be without LB DeMarcus Ware (broken forearm) they're going to make it hard on the Bengals. If the Bengals do the two things I mentioned above, I think they'll win this game, but it won't be easy.
CAROLINA over Minnesota (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Could be a low scoring game with two of the best defenses in the league going at it Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. I'm going with the Panthers in this one, because they have more talent on the offensive side of the ball. I know RB Adrian Peterson has been a non-factor so far, but the lack of his presence in the backfield will hurt the Vikings as he'll miss several months with a torn meniscus. The Panthers are going to blitz QB Sam Bradford a ton and I'm not sure he and that offensive line, who is built to run block, can hold up for 60 minutes. Panthers win a low scoring, offensive struggle.
NY GIANTS over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): It's early, but through two games, the Giants have one of the best defenses in football. I was stunned they held Drew Brees and the Saints to just 288-yards and 13 points last week. Last year the Giants gave up 52 points in a losing effort to the Saints. New York spent a lot of money in the offseason on their defense and so far it's paying off. Washington on the other hand, is looking square in the face at an 0-3 start. Giants defense will be too much for Kirk Cousins as the Redskins fall. Also, how could I forget, it's Josh Norman vs. Odell Beckham Jr Act II on Sunday. That should be fun to watch.
TAMPA BAY over Los Angeles (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): As bad as the Buccaneers looked last week in Arizona, getting destroyed 40-7, I'm picking them this Sunday. The Rams have looked awful on offense, scoring just nine points in two games. Their defense looked great against the Seahawks, but it's hard to win many games when the offense can't score points. Tampa rebounds with a win led by QB Jameis Winston.
SEATTLE over San Francisco (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): What is wrong with the Seahawks offense? They've only scored 15 points in two games and failed to score a touchdown last week against the Rams. The defense has played great, allowing only 19 points in two games and are giving up just 248.5 YPG. Two problems I see with the Seahawks. One, they have to run the football. Seattle has averaged just 89.5 YPG on the ground. Not terrible, but that's a low number for the Seahawks. They are built to run the ball and that's how they've won so many games the past few years, running the ball and playing defense. Second, get Jimmy Graham the football. Two games and he has four catches for 53-yards. The guy shouldn't be in there to block. Throw him the ball! I don't think there is a player in the NFL misused more than Jimmy Graham. I mean look at what he did in New Orleans. He's a terrific weapon in the passing game. Get him the ball and that could open up the running game. I think the Seahawks will play better on Sunday against the 49ers who will be lucky to score 13 points.
KANSAS CITY over NY Jets (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): Week 3 and already this game could have playoff implications. Come late December this could be a game that decides a tiebreaker and you don't want to be the losing team in this one. Both the Jets and Chiefs have been inconsistent the first two games and I'm taking the Chiefs here for the simple reason that they're at home. Should be a close game and your guess on an outcome is as good as mine.
San Diego over INDIANAPOLIS (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): Normally, with the Chargers coming east and missing RB Danny Woodhead and WR Keenan Allen for the season with ACL injuries, I'd take the Colts here. However, the Indianapolis defense is awful and they have six guys in the secondary either questionable or out for Sunday's game. Who is left? Too many injuries and the poor play from the defense the first two weeks have me picking the Chargers in this one.
Pittsburgh over PHILADELPHIA (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): I'm not on the Carson Wentz bandwagon just yet. The rookie has lead the Eagles to a 2-0 start, but let's step back and look who Wentz has beaten, Cleveland and Chicago. The Browns are the worst team in the NFL and the Bears aren't exactly a juggernaut. The Steelers are one of the better teams in the NFL and I think they'll open Wentz's eyes into just how difficult the NFL can be. Pittsburgh wins the Battle for Pennsylvania.
NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): The Saints got to win a game soon and why not on Monday night against the Falcons. It's hard to believe, but did you know it'll be 10-years on Sunday since these two teams played in the first game back in the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina? I think we all remember what happened in the opening minutes, Saints special teamer Steve Gleason blocked a punt that was recovered for a touchdown rocking the Superdome. It was more than just a blocked punt, it signified the rebirth of the city of New Orleans. One of the best moments in NFL history and the Saints will use that anniversary as momentum to defeat the Falcons once again on Monday night.
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 19-13 (.594)
Okay, it's the NFL, so anything can happen, but history is not on the side of those teams who are 0-2 to start the season.
Since the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, only 12 percent of teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs. And it gets even worse if you start 0-3.
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| Rex Ryan's sad face explains it all. He and the Bills are in big trouble. (AP Photo) |
The Bills are one of eight teams to start this season 0-2, so you can see why the Buffalo media is on top of the historical data against the Bills chances for the 2016 season. It's not looking good. Have to wonder if Rex Ryan will get fired if the Bills miss the playoffs, again.
As for all you fans out there, if you root for the Bills, Dolphins, Jaguars, Colts, Browns, Redskins, Bears, or Saints, you will have to hope history does not repeat itself.
If I was a betting man, my money would be on none of these teams to make the playoffs.
The AFC teams have a tougher road in my eyes with the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Broncos and Raiders all likely to be in contention for the playoffs. Doesn't leave much room for error if you're one of the teams I mentioned above.
In the NFC, the road isn't as tough. Carolina and the New York Giants look like the best teams after two weeks, with the Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Cardinals ultimately being in contention come December. We'll see about the Vikings. They're going to miss Adrian Peterson, but they do have a great defense. Anyway, there's a little more room for losses, but not much.
Come December I expect none of the 0-2 teams to be in contention for the playoffs. A team could get hot and win six or seven in a row to get back in it, but I'd doubt it. Stranger things have happened though.
On to Week 3 and my picks.
Week 3 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Houston over NEW ENGLAND (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS, NFL Network, Twitter): No Tom Brady or Jimmy Garoppolo in this one, so the Patriots will start Jacoby Brissett, a rookie from N.C. State, at quarterback. The emergency QB in case you're wondering will be WR Julian Edelman -- he played QB in college at Kent State. This is a classic game where the Patriots come out with a rookie quarterback against a top five defense and somehow find a way to win. I'll probably regret it, but I'm not picking the Patriots this week. Bill Belichick may be a genius but, the Texans defense leads the league with nine sacks and I believe they have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They won't make it easy on Brissett and I like Houston to win. With that being said, the Patriots will win and I'll be proven wrong by them, again.
Arizona over BUFFALO (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): It's never a good sign when you fire your offensive coordinator after just two games. The Bills did just that this past week though after falling to the Jets, 37-31, and you have to wonder what in the world is going on in Buffalo. I don't think the Bills will turn things around, which could mean the end of the Rex Ryan era in Buffalo. Arizona played much better last week after losing to the Tom Bradyless Patriots in Week 1 and I like them to send Buffalo to that dreaded 0-3 record.
Oakland over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Good news for the Raiders is that they have the number one offense in the NFL, averaging 470 YPG. Bad news is they have the worst defense in the league, giving up a whopping 517.5 YPG! If the Raiders can figure it out on defense, they'll continue to win games. Maybe they'll figure it out in Nashville against the Titans. Anyway, I'm going with the Raiders on the road.
MIAMI over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Season is over for the loser of this one and I think that team will be the Browns. Cleveland played better last week against the Ravens, but you can't give up a 20-point lead at home against a divisional opponent. As for the Dolphins, they're desperate for a win. Maybe their first home game will bring them some luck. That and the fact they're playing the Browns.
JACKSONVILLE over Baltimore (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Common Jaguars! I picked you to be my dark horse and this is how you start off the season?! I still think Jacksonville has the talent to make the playoffs. Yes, they're 0-2, but they had to play Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 1 and had to fly all the way out to San Diego last week. I'm still not sold on the Ravens, they've beaten the Bills and Browns, not exactly signature wins, and I think (hope) the Jaguars turn it around this week.
GREEN BAY over Detroit (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The Packers just didn't look right on offense Sunday night. I know the Vikings have a great defense, but I expected more Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense. After two road games, the Packers finally get to have a home game at Lambeau Field against the Lions, who never seem to play well in Green Bay. Rodgers and the offense will play better as the Packers turn things around at home.
CINCINNATI over Denver (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Big game for the Bengals on Sunday. Having played terrible last week against the Steelers, the Bengals need a win to avoid falling to 1-2 and having a losing record, something they're not very familiar with since Andy Dalton took over at quarterback. Two things need to happen if the Bengals are to defeat the defending Super Bowl champs. One, the defensive line has to get pressure on Trevor Siemian. The Bengals recorded only one sack last week against Ben Roethlisberger and they need to pressure Siemian and force him to make some bad throws. Second, the Bengals have to run the football. Cincinnati has only rushed for 103-yards in two games and is averaging 2.8-yards per carry. Abysmal. Denver has the best defense in the league and even though they'll be without LB DeMarcus Ware (broken forearm) they're going to make it hard on the Bengals. If the Bengals do the two things I mentioned above, I think they'll win this game, but it won't be easy.
CAROLINA over Minnesota (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Could be a low scoring game with two of the best defenses in the league going at it Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. I'm going with the Panthers in this one, because they have more talent on the offensive side of the ball. I know RB Adrian Peterson has been a non-factor so far, but the lack of his presence in the backfield will hurt the Vikings as he'll miss several months with a torn meniscus. The Panthers are going to blitz QB Sam Bradford a ton and I'm not sure he and that offensive line, who is built to run block, can hold up for 60 minutes. Panthers win a low scoring, offensive struggle.
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| The matchup between Norman and Beckham was intense last season. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson) |
TAMPA BAY over Los Angeles (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): As bad as the Buccaneers looked last week in Arizona, getting destroyed 40-7, I'm picking them this Sunday. The Rams have looked awful on offense, scoring just nine points in two games. Their defense looked great against the Seahawks, but it's hard to win many games when the offense can't score points. Tampa rebounds with a win led by QB Jameis Winston.
SEATTLE over San Francisco (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): What is wrong with the Seahawks offense? They've only scored 15 points in two games and failed to score a touchdown last week against the Rams. The defense has played great, allowing only 19 points in two games and are giving up just 248.5 YPG. Two problems I see with the Seahawks. One, they have to run the football. Seattle has averaged just 89.5 YPG on the ground. Not terrible, but that's a low number for the Seahawks. They are built to run the ball and that's how they've won so many games the past few years, running the ball and playing defense. Second, get Jimmy Graham the football. Two games and he has four catches for 53-yards. The guy shouldn't be in there to block. Throw him the ball! I don't think there is a player in the NFL misused more than Jimmy Graham. I mean look at what he did in New Orleans. He's a terrific weapon in the passing game. Get him the ball and that could open up the running game. I think the Seahawks will play better on Sunday against the 49ers who will be lucky to score 13 points.
KANSAS CITY over NY Jets (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): Week 3 and already this game could have playoff implications. Come late December this could be a game that decides a tiebreaker and you don't want to be the losing team in this one. Both the Jets and Chiefs have been inconsistent the first two games and I'm taking the Chiefs here for the simple reason that they're at home. Should be a close game and your guess on an outcome is as good as mine.
San Diego over INDIANAPOLIS (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): Normally, with the Chargers coming east and missing RB Danny Woodhead and WR Keenan Allen for the season with ACL injuries, I'd take the Colts here. However, the Indianapolis defense is awful and they have six guys in the secondary either questionable or out for Sunday's game. Who is left? Too many injuries and the poor play from the defense the first two weeks have me picking the Chargers in this one.
Pittsburgh over PHILADELPHIA (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): I'm not on the Carson Wentz bandwagon just yet. The rookie has lead the Eagles to a 2-0 start, but let's step back and look who Wentz has beaten, Cleveland and Chicago. The Browns are the worst team in the NFL and the Bears aren't exactly a juggernaut. The Steelers are one of the better teams in the NFL and I think they'll open Wentz's eyes into just how difficult the NFL can be. Pittsburgh wins the Battle for Pennsylvania.
DALLAS over Chicago (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Back-to-back primetime games for the Bears and back-to-back primetime losses forthcoming. Chicago had three costly turnovers on Monday night against the Eagles and it's hard to win if you turn the ball over like that. With QB Jay Cutler banged up with a thumb injury and those costly turnovers sure to occur at some point in Dallas, I like the Cowboys to send the Bears back to Chicago with a second-straight primetime loss.
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| A "Rebirth" statue commemorating Steve Gleason's blocked punt and the rebirth of the city of New Orleans now sits outside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. (John David Mercer/USA TODAY Sports) |
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 19-13 (.594)
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