Thoughts on the NFL Ratings Decline; Week 7 Picks
The Wall Street Journal once said that the NFL was "The League That Runs TV." Not anymore.
For the first time, basically in history, the TV ratings for the NFL are down.
An article on TheRinger.com by Kevin Clark does a great job going over the NFL's TV ratings nightmare in 2016. The article states that in 2014, 28 of the top 30 programs on TV were NFL games. Last season, the top 25 programs and 46 of the top 50 were NFL games.
In 2016, however, things have changed.
Last week's Colts-Texans game saw a 38 percent decline from last season's Week 6 Sunday night game between the Patriots and Colts. The decline was so bad that it was the least watched Sunday Night Football game since 2011. Sunday night games use to be the most watched show every single week, not anymore.
Monday Night Football has been even worse. The September 26th game between the Falcons and Saints drew just 8 million viewers. Granted it was opposite the presidential debate, but the ratings haven't been much better for the other five weeks this season. The October 10th game between the Buccaneers and Panthers was the worst-ever Monday Night Football game aired on ESPN.
Why? What has happened to the NFL's TV ratings?
Some say it is because of the presidential debates. I would agree that hasn't helped matters. Trump and Hillary are must watch television for a lot of Americans as election season is in full swing. Come Week 10 when the elections are over, ratings may pick back up.
I have two other theories though. First, the NFL needs to change the way it streams games.
I know the television networks, ESPN, CBS and FOX pay billions of dollars to broadcast NFL games, but the way people watch television and shows is changing. Millennials want to watch shows on Hulu, Netflix, YouTube and Twitter rather than on a traditional television network.
The NFL has started broadcasting Thursday night games on Twitter this season, which I think is a fabulous idea and one that should be expanded for next season. Pick a couple games each week or even the Thursday night game, a 1 p.m. game, a 4:25 p.m. game and the Sunday and Monday night games and live stream them on Twitter. The networks won't like it, but if the NFL wants to boost ratings they have to adapt.
People are on the go so much nowadays and being able to watch an NFL anywhere via Twitter would bring in more viewers. I myself am a millennial and I would definitely watch NFL games on Twitter rather than in my living room on CBS or FOX.
My second theory is this; the NFL is missing a TV ratings megastar. The NFL has plenty of star players, but none the caliber of what Peyton Manning was for so many years. Tom Brady is probably the closest to being on the same level as Peyton and with him being suspended the first four weeks probably didn't help ratings. Now, that he is back you know more people are going to tune in to Patriots games.
Same could be said for Tony Romo being hurt in Dallas. The Cowboys draw a large TV audience just about every week. According to SportsMediaWatch.com, five of the top 10 watched NFL games this season have involved the Dallas Cowboys, but could the ratings be even better if Romo was playing. As well as Dak Prescott has played, are some non-Cowboys fans not tuning in because Romo isn't on the field? Maybe.
The poor play of other megastars such as Cam Newton in Carolina and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay haven't helped ratings either. Newton has been hurt and the Panthers are 1-5, while Rodgers and the Packers offense have been anything but entertaining to watch this season. Don't forget about J.J. Watt and Adrian Peterson who have missed most of the season due to injury either.
The NFL needs megastars who create storylines that entice fans to tune in and so far, this season, there haven't been very many of them.
It's only Week 7, so not time to push the panic button just yet. With Tom Brady back and the elections almost over, I think the TV ratings will increase for the second half of the season.
On to my picks for Week 7.
Week 7 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
GREEN BAY over Chicago (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS/NFLN/Twitter): I don't know what is wrong with the Packers offense, but they better figure it out and fast. It'll be a short week after losing to the Cowboys at home on Sunday and the Packers better come ready to play. Bears QB Brian Hoyer has been excellent since taking over as the starter, 1,318-yards, 6 TD, 0 INT, QB rating of 103.2. Packers in a close one, but wouldn't stun me at all if Hoyer and the Bears pull off the upset.
NY Giants over LOS ANGELES (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX, from London): Going with the Giants in the second game over in London for the NFL this season. The Rams have not played good the last two weeks, giving up 61 points, and QB Case Keenum has thrown 3 INT, including one that was returned for a touchdown. WR Odell Beckham Jr. exploded last week with 222-yards receiving and I think he'll play well again this week across the pond.
KANSAS CITY over New Orleans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I was super impressed with what the Saints offense was able to do to the Panthers last week. 41 points and 523-yards of offense is just insane, but the sad part is they almost lost. Carolina had 38 points and 406-yards of offense of their own to make it a game. The Chiefs may not put up those kinds of numbers offensively, but their defense is certainly better than the Panthers right now. Kansas City will get some stops to hold Drew Brees and that Saints offense at bay to get the win.
TENNESSEE over Indianapolis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Colts haven't won a road game this season, although they should've won last week in Houston, and I think they'll lose again this week at the Titans. Tennessee has been playing much better the past two weeks, albeit against Miami and Cleveland, but Marcus Mariota has seven total touchdowns in that stretch and RB DeMarco Murray has run the ball effectively as well. Indianapolis is just too inconsistent for me to pick here; I like the Titans.
Minnesota over PHILADELPHIA (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): As long as the Vikings defense continues to play like they have through the first five games, then I'm going to take Minnesota every week the rest of the season.
CINCINNATI over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Bengals need a win in the worst way this weekend and playing the Browns should help matters. With Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger out for possibly the next 4-6 weeks, the Bengals have to take advantage of the opportunity to climb back into the race in the AFC North. Pittsburgh will struggle without Big Ben and if the Bengals can win their next two games (Cleveland on Sunday, then Washington over in London) they'll be right back in the hunt. As for Cleveland, they'll have to wait another week for their first win.
Washington over DETROIT (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I wasn't sold on the Redskins, but four straight wins has my attention. Three of their four wins have been by a touchdown or less, so it hasn't been easy, but the Redskins are finally starting to click. The Lions won't make it easy, but I like the Redskins on Sunday in Detroit.
Oakland over JACKSONVILLE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Raiders are 3-0 on the road and 1-2 at home this season. With this game being in Jacksonville, I like the Raiders to win on the road, again. Big game for the Jaguars here as they need to rack up some wins to keep pace in the AFC South.
Buffalo over MIAMI (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Buffalo has won four straight thanks in large part to their running game. The Bills lead the league in rushing with 998-yards and are averaging a league best 5.6 yards per rush this season. Since the Bills fired their offensive coordinator in Week 3, they've averaged 212 YPG on the ground. If those number keep up, the Bills will win a lot of football games, including the game on Sunday in Miami.
Baltimore over NY JETS (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Ravens lost a close one at MetLife Stadium last week, probably would've helped if they remembered to cover Odell Beckham Jr., but they'll get another chance to win in New Jersey this week against the 1-5 Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick will still be the starting QB after getting benched on Monday night, but the Jets are a mess regardless. Ravens get the win.
Tampa Bay over SAN FRANCISCO (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): The 49ers have lost five straight and there is no end in sight. San Francisco made the switch to Colin Kaepernick at quarterback last week in Buffalo, but Kaepernick completed just 44.8 percent of his passes for 187-yards. He did run for 66-yards on eight carries, but the problem was the 49ers defense gave up 312-yards on the ground to the Bills. The Buccaneers are well rested after a bye week and I think they'll get the win on the road.
ATLANTA over San Diego (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): After a long road trip, the Falcons finally return home. If not for a late interception, the Falcons would've gone 2-0 on their trip to Denver and then Seattle. The Chargers played better last week, defeating Denver, but I like the Falcons at home. The Atlanta offense is the best in the league and San Diego defense will struggle to stop them.
New England over PITTSBURGH (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): I was shocked the Steelers lost to the Dolphins last week, but two turnovers and giving up 222-yards rushing doesn't help you win many ball games. QB Ben Roethilsberger will be out the next few weeks after having surgery for a torn meniscus, so Landry Jones will start Sunday against Tom Brady and the Patriots. Going to go with the Patriots in this one with no Big Ben for the Steelers. This is probably be the highest rated NFL game of the week with Tom Brady going up against the Steelers who will have fans tuning in across the entire country.
Seattle over ARIZONA (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): This should be a great game Sunday night. Seattle and Arizona have both been very good the past several seasons and these games are tough and physical, much like the Seahawks/49ers matchups earlier this decade. The Cardinals have played better the last two weeks, after starting 1-3, but those two games were against the 49ers and Jets, who are a combined 2-10. Still unsure if the Cardinals are as good as we thought they would be when the season started, so for that reason, I'm taking the Seahawks in a close game.
DENVER over Houston (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): I know the Broncos have struggled to score points the last two weeks, both losses, but I like them on Monday night in Houston. The Denver defense will want to pressure former Broncos QB Brock Osweiler and make his night miserable. A little pay back for leaving the Broncos for Houston. Denver's defense stifles Houston's offense to end the losing streak.
Byes: Carolina, Dallas
Last Week: 8-7
Overall: 51-41 (.554)
For the first time, basically in history, the TV ratings for the NFL are down.
An article on TheRinger.com by Kevin Clark does a great job going over the NFL's TV ratings nightmare in 2016. The article states that in 2014, 28 of the top 30 programs on TV were NFL games. Last season, the top 25 programs and 46 of the top 50 were NFL games.
In 2016, however, things have changed.
Last week's Colts-Texans game saw a 38 percent decline from last season's Week 6 Sunday night game between the Patriots and Colts. The decline was so bad that it was the least watched Sunday Night Football game since 2011. Sunday night games use to be the most watched show every single week, not anymore.
Monday Night Football has been even worse. The September 26th game between the Falcons and Saints drew just 8 million viewers. Granted it was opposite the presidential debate, but the ratings haven't been much better for the other five weeks this season. The October 10th game between the Buccaneers and Panthers was the worst-ever Monday Night Football game aired on ESPN.
Why? What has happened to the NFL's TV ratings?
Some say it is because of the presidential debates. I would agree that hasn't helped matters. Trump and Hillary are must watch television for a lot of Americans as election season is in full swing. Come Week 10 when the elections are over, ratings may pick back up.
I have two other theories though. First, the NFL needs to change the way it streams games.
I know the television networks, ESPN, CBS and FOX pay billions of dollars to broadcast NFL games, but the way people watch television and shows is changing. Millennials want to watch shows on Hulu, Netflix, YouTube and Twitter rather than on a traditional television network.
The NFL has started broadcasting Thursday night games on Twitter this season, which I think is a fabulous idea and one that should be expanded for next season. Pick a couple games each week or even the Thursday night game, a 1 p.m. game, a 4:25 p.m. game and the Sunday and Monday night games and live stream them on Twitter. The networks won't like it, but if the NFL wants to boost ratings they have to adapt.
People are on the go so much nowadays and being able to watch an NFL anywhere via Twitter would bring in more viewers. I myself am a millennial and I would definitely watch NFL games on Twitter rather than in my living room on CBS or FOX.
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| Television networks have missed Peyton Manning and Tom Brady this season. (Getty Images) |
Same could be said for Tony Romo being hurt in Dallas. The Cowboys draw a large TV audience just about every week. According to SportsMediaWatch.com, five of the top 10 watched NFL games this season have involved the Dallas Cowboys, but could the ratings be even better if Romo was playing. As well as Dak Prescott has played, are some non-Cowboys fans not tuning in because Romo isn't on the field? Maybe.
The poor play of other megastars such as Cam Newton in Carolina and Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay haven't helped ratings either. Newton has been hurt and the Panthers are 1-5, while Rodgers and the Packers offense have been anything but entertaining to watch this season. Don't forget about J.J. Watt and Adrian Peterson who have missed most of the season due to injury either.
The NFL needs megastars who create storylines that entice fans to tune in and so far, this season, there haven't been very many of them.
It's only Week 7, so not time to push the panic button just yet. With Tom Brady back and the elections almost over, I think the TV ratings will increase for the second half of the season.
On to my picks for Week 7.
Week 7 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
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| Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense have yet to get in sync this season. (Matt Ludtke/AP) |
NY Giants over LOS ANGELES (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX, from London): Going with the Giants in the second game over in London for the NFL this season. The Rams have not played good the last two weeks, giving up 61 points, and QB Case Keenum has thrown 3 INT, including one that was returned for a touchdown. WR Odell Beckham Jr. exploded last week with 222-yards receiving and I think he'll play well again this week across the pond.
KANSAS CITY over New Orleans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I was super impressed with what the Saints offense was able to do to the Panthers last week. 41 points and 523-yards of offense is just insane, but the sad part is they almost lost. Carolina had 38 points and 406-yards of offense of their own to make it a game. The Chiefs may not put up those kinds of numbers offensively, but their defense is certainly better than the Panthers right now. Kansas City will get some stops to hold Drew Brees and that Saints offense at bay to get the win.
TENNESSEE over Indianapolis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Colts haven't won a road game this season, although they should've won last week in Houston, and I think they'll lose again this week at the Titans. Tennessee has been playing much better the past two weeks, albeit against Miami and Cleveland, but Marcus Mariota has seven total touchdowns in that stretch and RB DeMarco Murray has run the ball effectively as well. Indianapolis is just too inconsistent for me to pick here; I like the Titans.
Minnesota over PHILADELPHIA (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): As long as the Vikings defense continues to play like they have through the first five games, then I'm going to take Minnesota every week the rest of the season.
CINCINNATI over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Bengals need a win in the worst way this weekend and playing the Browns should help matters. With Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger out for possibly the next 4-6 weeks, the Bengals have to take advantage of the opportunity to climb back into the race in the AFC North. Pittsburgh will struggle without Big Ben and if the Bengals can win their next two games (Cleveland on Sunday, then Washington over in London) they'll be right back in the hunt. As for Cleveland, they'll have to wait another week for their first win.
Washington over DETROIT (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I wasn't sold on the Redskins, but four straight wins has my attention. Three of their four wins have been by a touchdown or less, so it hasn't been easy, but the Redskins are finally starting to click. The Lions won't make it easy, but I like the Redskins on Sunday in Detroit.
Oakland over JACKSONVILLE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Raiders are 3-0 on the road and 1-2 at home this season. With this game being in Jacksonville, I like the Raiders to win on the road, again. Big game for the Jaguars here as they need to rack up some wins to keep pace in the AFC South.
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| RB LeSean McCoy (left) and QB Tyrod Taylor are the leaders of the Bills top ranked rushing attack. (Photo Courtesy of BillsWire.USATODAY.com) |
Baltimore over NY JETS (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Ravens lost a close one at MetLife Stadium last week, probably would've helped if they remembered to cover Odell Beckham Jr., but they'll get another chance to win in New Jersey this week against the 1-5 Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick will still be the starting QB after getting benched on Monday night, but the Jets are a mess regardless. Ravens get the win.
Tampa Bay over SAN FRANCISCO (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): The 49ers have lost five straight and there is no end in sight. San Francisco made the switch to Colin Kaepernick at quarterback last week in Buffalo, but Kaepernick completed just 44.8 percent of his passes for 187-yards. He did run for 66-yards on eight carries, but the problem was the 49ers defense gave up 312-yards on the ground to the Bills. The Buccaneers are well rested after a bye week and I think they'll get the win on the road.
ATLANTA over San Diego (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): After a long road trip, the Falcons finally return home. If not for a late interception, the Falcons would've gone 2-0 on their trip to Denver and then Seattle. The Chargers played better last week, defeating Denver, but I like the Falcons at home. The Atlanta offense is the best in the league and San Diego defense will struggle to stop them.
New England over PITTSBURGH (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): I was shocked the Steelers lost to the Dolphins last week, but two turnovers and giving up 222-yards rushing doesn't help you win many ball games. QB Ben Roethilsberger will be out the next few weeks after having surgery for a torn meniscus, so Landry Jones will start Sunday against Tom Brady and the Patriots. Going to go with the Patriots in this one with no Big Ben for the Steelers. This is probably be the highest rated NFL game of the week with Tom Brady going up against the Steelers who will have fans tuning in across the entire country.
Seattle over ARIZONA (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): This should be a great game Sunday night. Seattle and Arizona have both been very good the past several seasons and these games are tough and physical, much like the Seahawks/49ers matchups earlier this decade. The Cardinals have played better the last two weeks, after starting 1-3, but those two games were against the 49ers and Jets, who are a combined 2-10. Still unsure if the Cardinals are as good as we thought they would be when the season started, so for that reason, I'm taking the Seahawks in a close game.
DENVER over Houston (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): I know the Broncos have struggled to score points the last two weeks, both losses, but I like them on Monday night in Houston. The Denver defense will want to pressure former Broncos QB Brock Osweiler and make his night miserable. A little pay back for leaving the Broncos for Houston. Denver's defense stifles Houston's offense to end the losing streak.
Byes: Carolina, Dallas
Last Week: 8-7
Overall: 51-41 (.554)
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