Why the Patriots will win Super Bowl LI
The Super Bowl is here and we should be in for of the most entertaining Super Bowl's in recent memory. Here's my prediction.
NEW ENGLAND over ATLANTA (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX): That's right. Tom Brady will win his fifth Super Bowl trophy on Sunday, a record for the most by any quarterback in NFL history. So, how are the Patriots going to win, you ask? Well, in part because of Brady, obviously, but mainly because of their defense and history.
Defense wins champions. We all know this. Time and time again, the team with the better defense wins it all. It's happened before and here are a few recent examples:
Super Bowl XXXV: Baltimore Ravens defeat the New York Giants, 34-7, behind one of the greatest defenses in the history of the NFL. The Giants recorded only 134-yards of offense (third-lowest in Super Bowl history), and turned the ball over five times.
Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots hold the St. Louis Rams, then known as "The Greatest Show on Turf," to just 17-points and force three turnovers. It was Tom Brady's first Super Bowl win.
Super Bowl XXXVII: Tampa Bay Buccaneers dominate Rich Gannon and the Oakland Raiders, 48-21, behind another all-time great defense that featured Hall of Fame players like Derrick Brooks, John Lynch (he'll be in the Hall of Fame eventually), and Warren Sapp. The Raiders had the number one offense in the league and the Buccaneers had the number one ranked defense coming in. The game was never close.
Super Bowl XLII: The David Tyree "Helmet Catch" game. The Patriots came in with the number one offense in the league and Brady had thrown then a league record 50 TD passes, 23 of those going to WR Randy Moss, also an NFL record. New England also had set then a record for most points scored in a season with 589 and was considered the greatest team in NFL history going into the Super Bowl. The Giants were able to hold the Patriots to just 14-points by getting tremendous pressure on Brady, sacking him five times. It took a miracle catch from David Tyree's helmet to setup the game winning score, but the Giants defense kept them in the game and ended the Patriots bid for a perfect season.
Super Bowl XLIII: The resurgent Kurt Warner got back to the Super Bowl with a high octane Cardinals offense that featured three 1,000-yard receivers -- Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston -- just the fifth team to accomplish such a feat. The key to the Steelers win in this one was a play from their, you guessed it, defense at the end of the first half. James Harrison returned an interception 100-yards, then-longest play in Super Bowl history, for a touchdown.
Super Bowl XLIV: Saints Tracey Porter picks off Peyton Manning as the Colts are driving to tie the game with less than four minutes left and returns it 74-yards for a touchdown.
Super Bowl XLVI: Giants defeat the Patriots, again, as history repeats itself with another great performance from the New York defense.
Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver Broncos, led by Peyton Manning, come in having set the record for most points scored in a season (606) and the most yards gained (7,313). Seattle held Denver to just 7 points and at one point led 36-0. Denver managed just 306-yards of offense, only 27 of the yards coming on the ground, and they committed four turnovers. The 43-8 final score was the third largest point differential in Super Bowl history.
Super Bowl XLIX: Malcolm Butler. Need a say more.
Super Bowl 50: Von Miller. Need a say more. Denver recorded seven sacks and forced four turnovers. Panthers MVP QB Cam Newton was 18 of 41 for 265-yards, threw an interception and fumbled twice, both were forced by Miller.
What's my point? Look at all the Super Bowl's I just mentioned, what do they all have in common? Defense.
In each game, the team with the better defense won the game and in several cases the games weren't even close. Historic offenses, like the Rams, Patriots and Broncos, were shut down on the biggest stage in sports.
Defense wins championships and the Patriots led the league in scoring defense at 15.6 points/game. The Falcons led the league in scoring offense at 33.8 points/game. Something has to give on Sunday and if history is any indication, it'll be the Patriots hoisting the Lombardi Trophy because of their defense. Patriots 31, Falcons 26.
And plus, wouldn't it be great to see commissioner Roger Goodell hand the Lombardi Trophy to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Talk about an awkward moment. If the Patriots do win, the post-game will be the highest rated trophy presentation in sports history.
Last Week: 1-1
Playoffs: 8-2
Overall: 171-95 (.643)
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| Tom Brady will win his fifth Super Bowl today not because of his play at quarterback, but because of play of his defense. (Michael Conroy/AP) |
Defense wins champions. We all know this. Time and time again, the team with the better defense wins it all. It's happened before and here are a few recent examples:
Super Bowl XXXV: Baltimore Ravens defeat the New York Giants, 34-7, behind one of the greatest defenses in the history of the NFL. The Giants recorded only 134-yards of offense (third-lowest in Super Bowl history), and turned the ball over five times.
Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots hold the St. Louis Rams, then known as "The Greatest Show on Turf," to just 17-points and force three turnovers. It was Tom Brady's first Super Bowl win.
Super Bowl XXXVII: Tampa Bay Buccaneers dominate Rich Gannon and the Oakland Raiders, 48-21, behind another all-time great defense that featured Hall of Fame players like Derrick Brooks, John Lynch (he'll be in the Hall of Fame eventually), and Warren Sapp. The Raiders had the number one offense in the league and the Buccaneers had the number one ranked defense coming in. The game was never close.
Super Bowl XLII: The David Tyree "Helmet Catch" game. The Patriots came in with the number one offense in the league and Brady had thrown then a league record 50 TD passes, 23 of those going to WR Randy Moss, also an NFL record. New England also had set then a record for most points scored in a season with 589 and was considered the greatest team in NFL history going into the Super Bowl. The Giants were able to hold the Patriots to just 14-points by getting tremendous pressure on Brady, sacking him five times. It took a miracle catch from David Tyree's helmet to setup the game winning score, but the Giants defense kept them in the game and ended the Patriots bid for a perfect season.
Super Bowl XLIII: The resurgent Kurt Warner got back to the Super Bowl with a high octane Cardinals offense that featured three 1,000-yard receivers -- Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston -- just the fifth team to accomplish such a feat. The key to the Steelers win in this one was a play from their, you guessed it, defense at the end of the first half. James Harrison returned an interception 100-yards, then-longest play in Super Bowl history, for a touchdown.
Super Bowl XLIV: Saints Tracey Porter picks off Peyton Manning as the Colts are driving to tie the game with less than four minutes left and returns it 74-yards for a touchdown.
Super Bowl XLVI: Giants defeat the Patriots, again, as history repeats itself with another great performance from the New York defense.
Super Bowl XLVIII: Denver Broncos, led by Peyton Manning, come in having set the record for most points scored in a season (606) and the most yards gained (7,313). Seattle held Denver to just 7 points and at one point led 36-0. Denver managed just 306-yards of offense, only 27 of the yards coming on the ground, and they committed four turnovers. The 43-8 final score was the third largest point differential in Super Bowl history.
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| Malcolm Butler's interception with 26 seconds left won the Patriots Super Bowl XLIX. (David Wallace/The Republic) |
Super Bowl 50: Von Miller. Need a say more. Denver recorded seven sacks and forced four turnovers. Panthers MVP QB Cam Newton was 18 of 41 for 265-yards, threw an interception and fumbled twice, both were forced by Miller.
What's my point? Look at all the Super Bowl's I just mentioned, what do they all have in common? Defense.
In each game, the team with the better defense won the game and in several cases the games weren't even close. Historic offenses, like the Rams, Patriots and Broncos, were shut down on the biggest stage in sports.
Defense wins championships and the Patriots led the league in scoring defense at 15.6 points/game. The Falcons led the league in scoring offense at 33.8 points/game. Something has to give on Sunday and if history is any indication, it'll be the Patriots hoisting the Lombardi Trophy because of their defense. Patriots 31, Falcons 26.
And plus, wouldn't it be great to see commissioner Roger Goodell hand the Lombardi Trophy to Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Talk about an awkward moment. If the Patriots do win, the post-game will be the highest rated trophy presentation in sports history.
Last Week: 1-1
Playoffs: 8-2
Overall: 171-95 (.643)
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