Let it Snow; Week 15 Picks
How great was the snow game in Buffalo on Sunday?
Any diehard football fan would love to have played in that game. Playing football in the snow was so much fun growing up. I mean what's better than being tackled and having a soft pile of snow on the ground to pad your fall.
In a game that saw the Colts not attempt a pass in the first quarter, the Bills were able to keep their playoff hopes alive by dashing through the snow.
RB LeSean McCoy ran the ball 32 times for 156-yards, including a game-winning 21-yard run in overtime as the Bills rushed for 227-yards as a team. Buffalo sits at 7-6 and right in the thick of a very intriguing AFC Wild Card race.
Speaking of playoffs, it's time once again to take a current look at the playoff race.
Tennessee, Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, L.A, Oakland and with their win against New England on Monday, Miami, are all still in the hunt for three playoff spots. Someone is going to win the AFC West -- big game Saturday night in Kansas City as its Chargers vs. Chiefs -- and then there are the two Wild Card spots.
Oakland has Dallas, Philadelphia and Kansas City remaining. Miami has Buffalo twice and Kansas City. Both teams almost have to win out being 6-7 and I don't see that happening. So, it's really a five team race for those three spots. Should be interesting and if you want to take a look at all the different scenarios for yourself, FiveThirtyEight has a great playoff predictor that you can spend hours going over. I'm addicted to it.
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are the only teams to have clinched playoff spots so far as each clinched their respective divisions this past weekend, but the Eagles lost MVP QB Carson Wentz to a torn ACL, so there wasn't much celebrating there. Both these teams have work left to do in the regular season as both want the playoffs to have to go through Pennsylvania en route to the Super Bowl in Minneapolis.
We have NFL games on four different days this week with the addition of two games on Saturday and apart from Thursday night, which is meaningless, we'll have three days of very meaningful football.
I was dreadful in picks last week, so let's see if I can do better this week.
Week 15 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
INDIANAPOLIS (3-10) over Denver (4-9)
Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NBC, Amazon Prime)
Pointless game on Thursday night and I'll go with the home team. The Colts, especially kicker Adam Vinatieri who missed two field goals in the snow last week, are at least happy this one will be indoors.
DETROIT (7-6) over Chicago (4-9)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
Lions better come ready to play because the Bears can run the football. They rushed for 232-yards against the Bengals last week and second year RB Jordan Howard is fourth in the NFL in rushing at 1,032-yards. Lions win, but Bears keep it close.
L.A. Chargers (7-6) over KANSAS CITY (7-6)
Saturday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
Great game Saturday night in Kansas City as this game has enormous playoff implications. L.A. lost to Kansas City earlier in the season, 24-10, in which QB Philip Rivers threw 3 INT, but that was a different Chargers team. L.A. has won seven of their last nine and have looked really good doing it. Chargers get the win, which puts them in the driver's seat for the AFC West division title.
BUFFALO (7-6) over Miami (6-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
As impressive as the Dolphins win over the Patriots was on Monday night, they're just 2-5 on the road this season and Sunday's forecast in Buffalo is calling for temperatures in the mid-30's. Not exactly 70 and sunny like it typical is in Miami, advantage Bills. I look for RB LeSean McCoy to have another big day as the Bills playoff hopes stay alive and the Dolphins hopes come to an end.
Baltimore (7-6) over CLEVELAND (0-13)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Browns were so close to getting their first win of the season, but a demoralizing overtime loss to the Packers kept Cleveland winless. Time is running out on winning a game this season and it won't happen on Sunday against a Ravens team that beat them by 14 points once already this season.
MINNESOTA (10-3) over Cincinnati (5-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bengals performance last Sunday was pathetic and this team has given up on the season. Time to make a change at head coach as a former Bengals coach comes to town this week in Mike Zimmer. We'll see if Marvin Lewis gets fired or not, but the Bengals will get shellacked by the Vikings up in Minnesota as the Vikings have their eye set on home-field advantage. And dare I say that the Super Bowl is in Minneapolis this year. Could Minnesota be the first team to play the Super Bowl on their home field?
NEW ORLEANS (9-4) over N.Y. Jets (5-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
With QB Josh McCown now out for the year after breaking his hand, Jets fans should finally get a chance to see Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg take some meaningful snaps. Hackenberg has never attempted an NFL pass and Petty has only started four career games. Petty will most likely get the start and he'll face a very good Saints team down in New Orleans. Good luck. Saints rebound with a win.
Philadelphia (11-2) over N.Y. GIANTS (2-11)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
I really feel for Carson Wentz. The second year QB out of North Dakota State was having an MVP caliber season and now the Eagles, who look like Super Bowl contenders, will have to try and win it without him. With Wentz out for the year with a torn ACL, Nick Foles will be tasked with leading this team. He's played well in the past and he's got talent around him, so don't count the Eagles out just yet. They clinched the NFC East last week and a win against the Giants this week will get them a first-round bye.
Arizona (6-7) over WASHINGTON (5-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Cardinals rank 8th in total defense at 320.6-yards/game and have knocked off the Jaguars and Titans two of the last three weeks. If QB Carson Palmer were healthy you have to wonder if Arizona would be right in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC. Washington has looked awful the last two weeks and I like Arizona to get the win. Also, it's great to see WR Larry Fitzgerald having another terrific season. Fitzgerald has 87 receptions for 922-yards and 5 TD at 34 years old. He'll certainly be walking into Canton someday.
CAROLINA (9-4) over Green Bay (7-6)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
Aaron Rodgers is back, but it's a bit too late. The Packers need to win out to have any shot at making the playoffs and those hopes will end on Sunday when they lose in Charlotte to the Panthers.
JACKSONVILLE (9-4) over Houston (4-9)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Jaguars build off last week's monster win against the Seahawks and beat a banged up Texans team as they clinch a playoff spot for the first time in a decade.
SEATTLE (8-5) over L.A. Rams (9-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
The last time these two played it was a low scoring game, a 16-10 Seahawks victory as five turnovers really hurt the Rams. I expect a much higher scoring game this week in Seattle, but with the same outcome. The Seattle defense is not the same without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor as last week showed with Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars put up 30 points and 424-yards of offense. L.A. has one of the best offenses in the league, so I don't expect them to score just 10 points this time around. QB Russell Wilson will be the difference though as I think he'll make some plays in the fourth quarter, where he has a passer rating of 137.4 this season, and lead the Seahawks to a win and first place in the NFC West.
PITTSBURGH (11-2) over New England (10-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I was shocked at how the Patriots played Monday night against the Dolphins. They looked flat on offense, Tom Brady threw 2 INT -- he had 4 INT the entire season going into the game -- and the defense has been hit hard with injuries. The Steelers have the number one rusher and receiver in the league, in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, respectively, and the number two passer in Ben Roethlisberger -- Tom Brady is in first by 121-yards. With the game being in Pittsburgh, a short week for the Patriots, all that firepower on offense for the Steelers, and injuries on the New England side, I think the Steelers will win. This means that the AFC playoffs will have to go through Pittsburgh, not Foxborough.
SAN FRANCISCO (3-10) over Tennessee (8-5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Since QB Jimmy Garoppolo took over at quarterback, the 49ers are 2-0 -- both of those wins coming on the road -- and he's thrown for 627-yards, while completing 65.7% of his passes. That has to be so encouraging if you're a 49ers fan and fans will get to see Jimmy start his first home game for the 49ers this weekend against the Titans. Tennessee on the other hand has been playing a very uninspiring brand of football for what seems like the last two months and it all starts with QB Marcus Mariota. Mariota hasn't thrown for more than 200-yards in each of his last three games and has thrown only 2 TD and 4 INT in those games. Titans aren't playing well, the 49ers are, so I'm going with Garoppolo and San Francisco at home.
Dallas (7-6) over OAKLAND (6-7)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Huge loss for the Raiders last week and with Dallas, Philadelphia and the L.A. Chargers left on the schedule, I could honestly see Oakland not winning a game the rest of the season. This will be the last game that the Cowboys will be without RB Ezekiel Elliott and he'll come back to a Dallas team that is still in the playoff race after they defeat Oakland on Sunday.
Atlanta (8-5) over TAMPA BAY (4-9)
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
One of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season has to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A lot of people had them contending for a playoff spot when the season started and now you have to imagine head coach Dirk Koetter is on the hot seat. Falcons win big as they continue to be right in the middle of the jam packed NFC playoff race.
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 130-78 (.625)
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| Only 18 passes were completed in the Buffalo blizzard last Sunday. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) |
In a game that saw the Colts not attempt a pass in the first quarter, the Bills were able to keep their playoff hopes alive by dashing through the snow.
RB LeSean McCoy ran the ball 32 times for 156-yards, including a game-winning 21-yard run in overtime as the Bills rushed for 227-yards as a team. Buffalo sits at 7-6 and right in the thick of a very intriguing AFC Wild Card race.
Speaking of playoffs, it's time once again to take a current look at the playoff race.
Tennessee, Buffalo, Baltimore, Kansas City, L.A, Oakland and with their win against New England on Monday, Miami, are all still in the hunt for three playoff spots. Someone is going to win the AFC West -- big game Saturday night in Kansas City as its Chargers vs. Chiefs -- and then there are the two Wild Card spots.
Oakland has Dallas, Philadelphia and Kansas City remaining. Miami has Buffalo twice and Kansas City. Both teams almost have to win out being 6-7 and I don't see that happening. So, it's really a five team race for those three spots. Should be interesting and if you want to take a look at all the different scenarios for yourself, FiveThirtyEight has a great playoff predictor that you can spend hours going over. I'm addicted to it.
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are the only teams to have clinched playoff spots so far as each clinched their respective divisions this past weekend, but the Eagles lost MVP QB Carson Wentz to a torn ACL, so there wasn't much celebrating there. Both these teams have work left to do in the regular season as both want the playoffs to have to go through Pennsylvania en route to the Super Bowl in Minneapolis.
We have NFL games on four different days this week with the addition of two games on Saturday and apart from Thursday night, which is meaningless, we'll have three days of very meaningful football.
I was dreadful in picks last week, so let's see if I can do better this week.
Week 15 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
INDIANAPOLIS (3-10) over Denver (4-9)
Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NBC, Amazon Prime)
Pointless game on Thursday night and I'll go with the home team. The Colts, especially kicker Adam Vinatieri who missed two field goals in the snow last week, are at least happy this one will be indoors.
DETROIT (7-6) over Chicago (4-9)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
Lions better come ready to play because the Bears can run the football. They rushed for 232-yards against the Bengals last week and second year RB Jordan Howard is fourth in the NFL in rushing at 1,032-yards. Lions win, but Bears keep it close.
L.A. Chargers (7-6) over KANSAS CITY (7-6)
Saturday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
Great game Saturday night in Kansas City as this game has enormous playoff implications. L.A. lost to Kansas City earlier in the season, 24-10, in which QB Philip Rivers threw 3 INT, but that was a different Chargers team. L.A. has won seven of their last nine and have looked really good doing it. Chargers get the win, which puts them in the driver's seat for the AFC West division title.
BUFFALO (7-6) over Miami (6-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
As impressive as the Dolphins win over the Patriots was on Monday night, they're just 2-5 on the road this season and Sunday's forecast in Buffalo is calling for temperatures in the mid-30's. Not exactly 70 and sunny like it typical is in Miami, advantage Bills. I look for RB LeSean McCoy to have another big day as the Bills playoff hopes stay alive and the Dolphins hopes come to an end.
Baltimore (7-6) over CLEVELAND (0-13)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Browns were so close to getting their first win of the season, but a demoralizing overtime loss to the Packers kept Cleveland winless. Time is running out on winning a game this season and it won't happen on Sunday against a Ravens team that beat them by 14 points once already this season.
MINNESOTA (10-3) over Cincinnati (5-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bengals performance last Sunday was pathetic and this team has given up on the season. Time to make a change at head coach as a former Bengals coach comes to town this week in Mike Zimmer. We'll see if Marvin Lewis gets fired or not, but the Bengals will get shellacked by the Vikings up in Minnesota as the Vikings have their eye set on home-field advantage. And dare I say that the Super Bowl is in Minneapolis this year. Could Minnesota be the first team to play the Super Bowl on their home field?
NEW ORLEANS (9-4) over N.Y. Jets (5-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
With QB Josh McCown now out for the year after breaking his hand, Jets fans should finally get a chance to see Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg take some meaningful snaps. Hackenberg has never attempted an NFL pass and Petty has only started four career games. Petty will most likely get the start and he'll face a very good Saints team down in New Orleans. Good luck. Saints rebound with a win.
Philadelphia (11-2) over N.Y. GIANTS (2-11)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
I really feel for Carson Wentz. The second year QB out of North Dakota State was having an MVP caliber season and now the Eagles, who look like Super Bowl contenders, will have to try and win it without him. With Wentz out for the year with a torn ACL, Nick Foles will be tasked with leading this team. He's played well in the past and he's got talent around him, so don't count the Eagles out just yet. They clinched the NFC East last week and a win against the Giants this week will get them a first-round bye.
Arizona (6-7) over WASHINGTON (5-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Cardinals rank 8th in total defense at 320.6-yards/game and have knocked off the Jaguars and Titans two of the last three weeks. If QB Carson Palmer were healthy you have to wonder if Arizona would be right in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC. Washington has looked awful the last two weeks and I like Arizona to get the win. Also, it's great to see WR Larry Fitzgerald having another terrific season. Fitzgerald has 87 receptions for 922-yards and 5 TD at 34 years old. He'll certainly be walking into Canton someday.
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| Packers fans will be smiling on Sunday when Aaron Rodgers returns to the field as he tries to lead the Packers into the playoffs. (Photo Courtesy of SI.com) |
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
Aaron Rodgers is back, but it's a bit too late. The Packers need to win out to have any shot at making the playoffs and those hopes will end on Sunday when they lose in Charlotte to the Panthers.
JACKSONVILLE (9-4) over Houston (4-9)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Jaguars build off last week's monster win against the Seahawks and beat a banged up Texans team as they clinch a playoff spot for the first time in a decade.
SEATTLE (8-5) over L.A. Rams (9-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
The last time these two played it was a low scoring game, a 16-10 Seahawks victory as five turnovers really hurt the Rams. I expect a much higher scoring game this week in Seattle, but with the same outcome. The Seattle defense is not the same without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor as last week showed with Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars put up 30 points and 424-yards of offense. L.A. has one of the best offenses in the league, so I don't expect them to score just 10 points this time around. QB Russell Wilson will be the difference though as I think he'll make some plays in the fourth quarter, where he has a passer rating of 137.4 this season, and lead the Seahawks to a win and first place in the NFC West.
PITTSBURGH (11-2) over New England (10-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I was shocked at how the Patriots played Monday night against the Dolphins. They looked flat on offense, Tom Brady threw 2 INT -- he had 4 INT the entire season going into the game -- and the defense has been hit hard with injuries. The Steelers have the number one rusher and receiver in the league, in Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, respectively, and the number two passer in Ben Roethlisberger -- Tom Brady is in first by 121-yards. With the game being in Pittsburgh, a short week for the Patriots, all that firepower on offense for the Steelers, and injuries on the New England side, I think the Steelers will win. This means that the AFC playoffs will have to go through Pittsburgh, not Foxborough.
SAN FRANCISCO (3-10) over Tennessee (8-5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Since QB Jimmy Garoppolo took over at quarterback, the 49ers are 2-0 -- both of those wins coming on the road -- and he's thrown for 627-yards, while completing 65.7% of his passes. That has to be so encouraging if you're a 49ers fan and fans will get to see Jimmy start his first home game for the 49ers this weekend against the Titans. Tennessee on the other hand has been playing a very uninspiring brand of football for what seems like the last two months and it all starts with QB Marcus Mariota. Mariota hasn't thrown for more than 200-yards in each of his last three games and has thrown only 2 TD and 4 INT in those games. Titans aren't playing well, the 49ers are, so I'm going with Garoppolo and San Francisco at home.
Dallas (7-6) over OAKLAND (6-7)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Huge loss for the Raiders last week and with Dallas, Philadelphia and the L.A. Chargers left on the schedule, I could honestly see Oakland not winning a game the rest of the season. This will be the last game that the Cowboys will be without RB Ezekiel Elliott and he'll come back to a Dallas team that is still in the playoff race after they defeat Oakland on Sunday.
Atlanta (8-5) over TAMPA BAY (4-9)
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
One of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season has to be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A lot of people had them contending for a playoff spot when the season started and now you have to imagine head coach Dirk Koetter is on the hot seat. Falcons win big as they continue to be right in the middle of the jam packed NFC playoff race.
Last Week: 7-9
Overall: 130-78 (.625)
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