Round 2: Who will be the 32 starting QB's in Week 1
Now that the dust of free agency has begun to settle and the draft this week, let's revisit my earlier post about who the 32 starting quarterbacks will be in Week 1 come September.
To recap, below are the main guys I focused on before free agency began with my prediction on where each of them would end up.
Kirk Cousins → Broncos
Drew Brees → Saints
Case Keenum → Vikings
Teddy Bridgewater → Vikings
Sam Bradford → Bears
Nick Foles → Eagles
A.J. McCarron → Browns
Josh Allen (Wyoming) → Browns
Josh Rosen (UCLA) → Giants
Sam Darnold (USC) → Cardinals
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) → Jets
Lamar Jackson (Louisville) → Jaguars
Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma St.) → Saints
I'll admit that most of my earlier predictions were completely wrong. I'll give myself a ✅ next to each team that looks like my prediction will indeed be correct and a ✖ next to each team that I missed. If it's still too early to make a call on who the starting quarterback will be, I'll give myself a ❔. Final score, before we head into the draft of course, will be at the end.
Alright, let's try this again.
Pre-free agency prediction: Tyrod Taylor
Current Prediction: A.J. McCarron
I still believe the Bills have a massive gap at quarterback even with the signing of McCarron and Nathan Peterman still on the roster. I'd be surprised if they don't take a QB with the 12nd pick or make a trade to move up in the draft.
Miami Dolphins ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Ryan Tannehill
Current Prediction: Tannehill
I would not be surprised at all if the Dolphins take a quarterback in the first round even though they've said they're going with Tannehill. Baker Mayfield on South Beach, perhaps?
New England Patriots ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Brian Hoyer (jokingly, before predicting Tom Brady)
Current Prediction: Brady
New York Jets ❔
Pre-free agency prediction: Baker Mayfield
Current Prediction: Josh McCown, with Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold as the backups.
The Jets brought back McCown on a one-year deal and signed former Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater to a one-year deal as well. New York also gave up the farm to move up three spots in the draft to number three overall after a trade with the Colts. Moving up can only mean one thing, the Jets are going to take a quarterback and I think they'll take Darnold instead of Mayfield.
Pre-free agency prediction: Joe Flacco
Current Prediction: Flacco
Flacco will have a bit of competition in training camp as the Ravens signed Robert Griffin III, who was out of football in 2017.
Cincinnati Bengals ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Andy Dalton
Current Prediction: Dalton
Matt Barkley was signed to be the backup, but maybe the Bengals will surprise us and draft Dalton's eventual replacement. MMQB's Peter King thinks it could be Lamar Jackson.
Cleveland Browns ✖
Pre-free agency prediction: A.J. McCarron
Current Prediction: Tyrod Taylor
After trading for the veteran, I expect the Browns to start the season with Taylor under center. Cleveland also acquired WR Jarvis Landry via a trade with the Dolphins and signed free-agent RB Carlos Hyde. Cleveland is at least making an effort to improve the team and that has to be encouraging to Browns fans. They still have to take a QB number one and I'm sticking with my earlier pick of Josh Allen.
Pittsburgh Steelers ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Ben Roethlisberger
Current Prediction: Roethlisberger
Pre-free agency prediction: Deshaun Watson
Current Prediction: Watson
Indianapolis Colts ❔
Pre-free agency prediction: Andrew Luck
Current Prediction: Luck
Rumors are Luck still hasn't thrown a football since his shoulder surgery last fall. That's concerning if I'm a Colts fan. Jacoby Brissett was a solid backup last year, so Indianapolis does have him to fall back on if Luck isn't healthy.
Jacksonville Jaguars ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Blake Bortles
Current Prediction: Bortles
Still think Jaguars will draft Lamar Jackson. Leonard Fournette and Lamar Jackson in the backfield is too good of an opportunity to pass up.
Tennessee Titans ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Marcus Mariota
Current Prediction: Mariota
Prescott won't be throwing the ball to Dez Bryant though as the Cowboys released the often outspoken wide receiver on April 13.
Minnesota Vikings ✖
Pre-free agency prediction: Case Keenum
Current Prediction: Kirk Cousins
Cousins set a new precedent for quarterback's by getting his entire $84 million contract guaranteed. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, who will be the next top free agent quarterbacks, should benefit greatly from Cousins contract. Cousins though immediately turns the Vikings into an even bigger Super Bowl favorite. They got to the NFC Championship game last year and they return almost all of their key players from a year ago while upgrading at quarterback. The Vikings also signed DT Sheldon Richardson, which makes that terrific defense even better.
Arizona Cardinals ✖
Pre-free agency prediction: Sam Darnold
Current prediction: Sam Bradford
I got the Sam part right, but I never would've given Bradford a $20 million contract. After all the other top free agent quarterbacks signed elsewhere, however, the Cardinals were left in a bind. Arizona also signed Mike Glennon to backup Bradford -- good idea -- and judging by Bradford's injury history, Glennon will start several games in 2018. The Cardinals would be wise to draft a quarterback as well.
To recap, below are the main guys I focused on before free agency began with my prediction on where each of them would end up.
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| I did not foresee John Elway signing Case Keenum when free agency began. (John Leyba/The Denver Post) |
Drew Brees → Saints
Case Keenum → Vikings
Teddy Bridgewater → Vikings
Sam Bradford → Bears
Nick Foles → Eagles
A.J. McCarron → Browns
Josh Allen (Wyoming) → Browns
Josh Rosen (UCLA) → Giants
Sam Darnold (USC) → Cardinals
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) → Jets
Lamar Jackson (Louisville) → Jaguars
Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma St.) → Saints
I'll admit that most of my earlier predictions were completely wrong. I'll give myself a ✅ next to each team that looks like my prediction will indeed be correct and a ✖ next to each team that I missed. If it's still too early to make a call on who the starting quarterback will be, I'll give myself a ❔. Final score, before we head into the draft of course, will be at the end.
Alright, let's try this again.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills ✖Pre-free agency prediction: Tyrod Taylor
Current Prediction: A.J. McCarron
I still believe the Bills have a massive gap at quarterback even with the signing of McCarron and Nathan Peterman still on the roster. I'd be surprised if they don't take a QB with the 12nd pick or make a trade to move up in the draft.
Miami Dolphins ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Ryan Tannehill
Current Prediction: Tannehill
I would not be surprised at all if the Dolphins take a quarterback in the first round even though they've said they're going with Tannehill. Baker Mayfield on South Beach, perhaps?
New England Patriots ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Brian Hoyer (jokingly, before predicting Tom Brady)
Current Prediction: Brady
New York Jets ❔
Pre-free agency prediction: Baker Mayfield
Current Prediction: Josh McCown, with Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold as the backups.
The Jets brought back McCown on a one-year deal and signed former Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater to a one-year deal as well. New York also gave up the farm to move up three spots in the draft to number three overall after a trade with the Colts. Moving up can only mean one thing, the Jets are going to take a quarterback and I think they'll take Darnold instead of Mayfield.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens ✅Pre-free agency prediction: Joe Flacco
Current Prediction: Flacco
Flacco will have a bit of competition in training camp as the Ravens signed Robert Griffin III, who was out of football in 2017.
Cincinnati Bengals ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Andy Dalton
Current Prediction: Dalton
Matt Barkley was signed to be the backup, but maybe the Bengals will surprise us and draft Dalton's eventual replacement. MMQB's Peter King thinks it could be Lamar Jackson.
Cleveland Browns ✖
Pre-free agency prediction: A.J. McCarron
Current Prediction: Tyrod Taylor
After trading for the veteran, I expect the Browns to start the season with Taylor under center. Cleveland also acquired WR Jarvis Landry via a trade with the Dolphins and signed free-agent RB Carlos Hyde. Cleveland is at least making an effort to improve the team and that has to be encouraging to Browns fans. They still have to take a QB number one and I'm sticking with my earlier pick of Josh Allen.
Pittsburgh Steelers ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Ben Roethlisberger
Current Prediction: Roethlisberger
AFC South
Houston Texans ✅Pre-free agency prediction: Deshaun Watson
Current Prediction: Watson
Indianapolis Colts ❔
Pre-free agency prediction: Andrew Luck
Current Prediction: Luck
Rumors are Luck still hasn't thrown a football since his shoulder surgery last fall. That's concerning if I'm a Colts fan. Jacoby Brissett was a solid backup last year, so Indianapolis does have him to fall back on if Luck isn't healthy.
Pre-free agency prediction: Blake Bortles
Current Prediction: Bortles
Still think Jaguars will draft Lamar Jackson. Leonard Fournette and Lamar Jackson in the backfield is too good of an opportunity to pass up.
Tennessee Titans ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Marcus Mariota
Current Prediction: Mariota
AFC West
Denver Broncos ✖
Pre-free agency prediction: Kirk Cousins
Current Prediction: Case Keenum
The Broncos lost out on Cousins, so they signed the next best available QB in Keenum. With Keenum only getting a two-year deal, the Broncos will probably take a hard look at drafting someone early on to learn behind Keenum.
Pre-free agency prediction: Kirk Cousins
Current Prediction: Case Keenum
The Broncos lost out on Cousins, so they signed the next best available QB in Keenum. With Keenum only getting a two-year deal, the Broncos will probably take a hard look at drafting someone early on to learn behind Keenum.
Kansas City Chiefs ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Patrick Mahomes
Current Prediction: Mahomes
Pre-free agency prediction: Patrick Mahomes
Current Prediction: Mahomes
Los Angeles Chargers ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Philip Rivers
Current Prediction: Rivers
Pre-free agency prediction: Philip Rivers
Current Prediction: Rivers
Oakland Raiders ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Derek Carr
Current Prediction: Carr
Pre-free agency prediction: Derek Carr
Current Prediction: Carr
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Dak Prescott
Current Prediction: Prescott
Pre-free agency prediction: Dak Prescott
Current Prediction: Prescott
Prescott won't be throwing the ball to Dez Bryant though as the Cowboys released the often outspoken wide receiver on April 13.
New York Giants ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Eli Manning
Current Prediction: Manning
I like the Giants to take Josh Rosen with the second overall pick, but they could go with Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. Or they might trade out of that spot to say, Buffalo, and move down to acquire more picks. It'll be interesting to see what the Giants do on Thursday.
Pre-free agency prediction: Eli Manning
Current Prediction: Manning
I like the Giants to take Josh Rosen with the second overall pick, but they could go with Penn State RB Saquon Barkley. Or they might trade out of that spot to say, Buffalo, and move down to acquire more picks. It'll be interesting to see what the Giants do on Thursday.
Philadelphia Eagles ❔
Pre-free agency prediction: Carson Wentz
Current Prediction: Wentz
Nick Foles restructured his contract with the Eagles last week, which means he'll remain on the team and it would not surprise me at all if he starts Week 1. Wentz may need some more time to recover from ACL surgery. We probably won't know until the preseason gets underway if Wentz is healthy enough to be the starter or not, but the Eagles have a Super Bowl MVP backup just in case.
Pre-free agency prediction: Carson Wentz
Current Prediction: Wentz
Nick Foles restructured his contract with the Eagles last week, which means he'll remain on the team and it would not surprise me at all if he starts Week 1. Wentz may need some more time to recover from ACL surgery. We probably won't know until the preseason gets underway if Wentz is healthy enough to be the starter or not, but the Eagles have a Super Bowl MVP backup just in case.
Washington Redskins ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Alex Smith
Current Prediction: Smith
Pre-free agency prediction: Alex Smith
Current Prediction: Smith
NFC North
Chicago Bears ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Mitchell Trubisky
Current Prediction: Trubisky
The Bears brought in wide receivers Allen Robinson (Jaguars) and Taylor Gabriel (Falcons) to give Trubisky some more options to throw the ball too. Chicago also signed TE Trey Burton (Eagles), who threw the TD pass to Nick Foles in the Super Bowl. Bears are improving and they should be fun to watch on offense in Trubisky's second season.
Pre-free agency prediction: Mitchell Trubisky
Current Prediction: Trubisky
The Bears brought in wide receivers Allen Robinson (Jaguars) and Taylor Gabriel (Falcons) to give Trubisky some more options to throw the ball too. Chicago also signed TE Trey Burton (Eagles), who threw the TD pass to Nick Foles in the Super Bowl. Bears are improving and they should be fun to watch on offense in Trubisky's second season.
Detroit Lions ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Matthew Stafford
Current Prediction: Stafford
Pre-free agency prediction: Matthew Stafford
Current Prediction: Stafford
Green Bay Packers ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Aaron Rodgers
Current Prediction: Rodgers
Cannot wait to see Rodgers throwing TD passes to Jimmy Graham this season. Graham should return to the type of player we saw when Graham was in New Orleans. He'll be high on fantasy owners draft boards come August.
Pre-free agency prediction: Aaron Rodgers
Current Prediction: Rodgers
Cannot wait to see Rodgers throwing TD passes to Jimmy Graham this season. Graham should return to the type of player we saw when Graham was in New Orleans. He'll be high on fantasy owners draft boards come August.
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| I'd be smiling too if I just got $84 million guaranteed. (Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated) |
Pre-free agency prediction: Case Keenum
Current Prediction: Kirk Cousins
Cousins set a new precedent for quarterback's by getting his entire $84 million contract guaranteed. Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, who will be the next top free agent quarterbacks, should benefit greatly from Cousins contract. Cousins though immediately turns the Vikings into an even bigger Super Bowl favorite. They got to the NFC Championship game last year and they return almost all of their key players from a year ago while upgrading at quarterback. The Vikings also signed DT Sheldon Richardson, which makes that terrific defense even better.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Matt Ryan
Current Prediction: Ryan
Pre-free agency prediction: Matt Ryan
Current Prediction: Ryan
Carolina Panthers ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Cam Newton
Current Prediction: Newton
Pre-free agency prediction: Cam Newton
Current Prediction: Newton
New Orleans Saints ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Drew Brees
Current Prediction: Brees
Looks like Brees will finish his career as a Saint after signing a two-year, $50 million contract. New Orleans is high on second year QB Taysom Hill, who had four tackles on special teams this past season, so I'll be curious to see if they try and develop Hill to eventually replace Brees, or draft a quarterback in the later rounds. I like Mason Rudolph in New Orleans, just saying.
Pre-free agency prediction: Drew Brees
Current Prediction: Brees
Looks like Brees will finish his career as a Saint after signing a two-year, $50 million contract. New Orleans is high on second year QB Taysom Hill, who had four tackles on special teams this past season, so I'll be curious to see if they try and develop Hill to eventually replace Brees, or draft a quarterback in the later rounds. I like Mason Rudolph in New Orleans, just saying.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Jameis Winston
Current Prediction: Winston
Pre-free agency prediction: Jameis Winston
Current Prediction: Winston
NFC West
Pre-free agency prediction: Sam Darnold
Current prediction: Sam Bradford
I got the Sam part right, but I never would've given Bradford a $20 million contract. After all the other top free agent quarterbacks signed elsewhere, however, the Cardinals were left in a bind. Arizona also signed Mike Glennon to backup Bradford -- good idea -- and judging by Bradford's injury history, Glennon will start several games in 2018. The Cardinals would be wise to draft a quarterback as well.
Los Angeles Rams ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Jared Goff
Current prediction: Goff
Current prediction: Goff
San Francisco 49ers ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Jimmy Garoppolo
Current prediction: Garoppolo
Pre-free agency prediction: Jimmy Garoppolo
Current prediction: Garoppolo
Seattle Seahawks ✅
Pre-free agency prediction: Russell Wilson
Current prediction: Wilson
Totals:
24 - ✅
5 - ✖
3 - ❔
So, to summarize thus far, only Drew Brees ended up where I thought he would.
Kirk Cousins → Broncos ✖
Drew Brees → Saints ✅
Case Keenum → Vikings ✖
Teddy Bridgewater → Vikings ✖
Sam Bradford → Bears ✖
Nick Foles → Eagles ❔
A.J. McCarron → Browns ✖
Josh Allen (Wyoming) → Browns ❔
Josh Rosen (UCLA) → Giants ❔
Sam Darnold (USC) → Jets ❔
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) → Dolphins ❔
Lamar Jackson (Louisville) → Jaguars ❔
Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma St.) → Saints ❔
A lot of uncertainty still remains, but it's nice to know that even in the offseason, no one has an easy time predicting what will happen in the NFL.
I'll have another look at the quarterback landscape once the draft is completed.
Enjoy the draft.
Pre-free agency prediction: Russell Wilson
Current prediction: Wilson
Totals:
24 - ✅
5 - ✖
3 - ❔
So, to summarize thus far, only Drew Brees ended up where I thought he would.
Kirk Cousins → Broncos ✖
Drew Brees → Saints ✅
Case Keenum → Vikings ✖
Teddy Bridgewater → Vikings ✖
Sam Bradford → Bears ✖
Nick Foles → Eagles ❔
A.J. McCarron → Browns ✖
Josh Allen (Wyoming) → Browns ❔
Josh Rosen (UCLA) → Giants ❔
Sam Darnold (USC) → Jets ❔
Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma) → Dolphins ❔
Lamar Jackson (Louisville) → Jaguars ❔
Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma St.) → Saints ❔
A lot of uncertainty still remains, but it's nice to know that even in the offseason, no one has an easy time predicting what will happen in the NFL.
I'll have another look at the quarterback landscape once the draft is completed.
Enjoy the draft.
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