2011 NFL Preview: AFC South
Will somebody other than the Indianapolis Colts finally win the AFC South in 2011? Can Houston finally get to the playoffs? Is Peyton Manning going to be ready for the start of the season? Who will start at quarterback for the Jaguars? Are Chris Johnson and Matt Hasselbeck enough to get Tennessee back to the playoffs? Lots of questions and I have answers, let's go.
AFC South
Houston Texans: 6-10 (in 2010)
Houston enters their tenth season as a franchise in the NFL and the team has never looked more capable of reaching the playoffs. The stars are shining in Houston and some key additions to the roster have the Texans hoping 2011 will be their year.
The offense was ranked in the top ten every statistical category last season and all their firepower returns this season. QB Matt Schaub leads the Texans offensive attack and he played very well in 2010, throwing for 4,370 and 24 TD. RB Arian Foster will be one of the top fantasy players this year and for good reason. Foster had his best season as a pro rushing for 1,616 yards, 18 TD and he caught 66 passes for 604 yards. Finally, WR Andre Johnson is also back and Johnson is one of the top five receivers in the league and he catches everything thrown his way.
As good as the offense is, the only way Houston gets to the playoffs is if the defense gets better, much better. The Texans were dead last at stopping the pass in 2010 and they made some much needed changes in the off-season to make sure that doesn't happen again. Safety Daniel Manning is over from Chicago and former Cincinnati Bengal Johnathan Joseph will start at corner. Manning and Joseph will greatly improve a secondary that allowed opposing offenses to go through them like a hot knife through butter. Joseph and Manning along with DE Mario Williams, LB Brian Cushing, LB DeMeco Ryans, LB Connor Barwin (Cincinnati) and rookie DE J.J. Watt (Wisconsin), should make Houston a lot better on defense.
So will 2011 finally be the year Houston gets to the playoffs? The talent is there, the coaching is there, the fans are behind them, but Peyton Manning and the Colts are still in the division. Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville in the division, not to mention New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Atlanta on the schedule will keep the Texans out of the playoffs, again.
Indianapolis Colts: 10-6
Colts fans are starting to get concerned about the season, but take a deep breath and relax. Yes, Peyton Manning is still recovering from neck surgery and has yet to play this preseason, but he will be ready for the start of the season. Peyton hasn't missed a game since he was at Tennessee and President Clinton was in office. Peyton never plays much during the preseason and he might be rusty the first couple of weeks, but Manning is one of the best ever and he will be ready to go.
This preseason the Colts have looked absolutely awful, which is cause for concern, but the Colts always look bad in the preseason. I can't remember the last time I was impressed by a Colts team in the preseason, yet every year they win 10, 11 or 12 games. I know the preseason is important and seeing Peyton Manning on the sidelines is unsettling, but the Colts will be fine. Colts fans just need to take some aspirin and relax.
With Manning under center the Colts are a 10 or 11 win team and their is a lot of talent around Manning. WR Reggie Wayne, WR Pierre Garcon, WR Austin Collie, TE Dallas Clark and RB Joseph Addai. That's just the offense. On defense there are plenty of stars as well, DE Dwight Freeney, DE Robert Mathis, DT Tommie Harris is over from the Bears, LB Gary Brackett and S Antoine Bethea. With all those stars the Colts will however start three rookies on the line, DT Drake Nevis (LSU), T Anthony Castonzo (Boston College) and G Ben Ijalana (Villanova), so that will be something to keep on eye on.
Indianapolis is loaded with talent and that talent will be tested. Games against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and their division rivals will require nothing but the best from Peyton Manning. The Colts may be getting older in some areas, but they will win the division again and could be playing a home game February 5, 2012 on Super Bowl Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8
The biggest question in Jacksonville this season revolves around the quarterback situation, but the most important questions surround the defense. Jacksonville was 28th against the pass and 22nd against the run last season and they made major changes this off-season on both sides of the ball.
CB Rashean Mathis is the leader of the Jaguar defense and he is one of the league's best cover corners, but that was about it. So, Jacksonville went out and signed LB Clint Session (Colts), LB Paul Posluszny (Buffalo), DE Matt Roth (Browns) and S Dawan Landry (Ravens) to beef up the defensive unit. Jacksonville also will have DE Aaron Kampman, who is coming off knee surgery, for a full season and DT Tyson Alualu is in his second season after playing well his rookie year. The new faces on defense should help Mathis and the Jaguars defense put up a stiffer resistance in 2011.
As for the offense, who will start at quarterback, David Garrard or rookie Blaine Gabbert? It looks like David Garrard is the favorite for now, but if Jacksonville gets off to a bad start Gabbert will take over. I think Garrard, who threw for 2,734 yards and set a franchise records in TD (23) and completion percentage (64.5), gives Jacksonville the best chance to win. Garrard did turn the ball over last season and has been hurt by injuries, which could work in Gabbert's favor. The Jaguars future rests in the arms of Gabbert, but they should stick with Garrard for now.
Jacksonville had the third best rushing attack last season behind RB Maurice Jones-Drew and look for them to continue to hand the ball off to MJD. WR Mike Sims-Walker left for St. Louis and Jacksonville has no one to replace him, so look for TE Marcedes Lewis and rookie WR Cecil Shorts (Mount Union) to get a lot of balls thrown their way no matter who is at quarterback.
Indianapolis and Houston are a dynamic duo to get past in the division and Tennessee is no push over either. With New Orleans, New York Jets, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and San Diego on the schedule and that's enough to keep the Jaguars below the .500 mark.
Tennessee Titans: 6-10
RB Chris Johnson is no longer holding out and it only took til the fourth preseason game to end. Nonetheless, Chris Johnson got his money, a 4-year $53 million contract with a healthy sum of $30 million guaranteed. That's a huge contract to give to a guy who gets beat up week in and week out, but he certainly earned it, rushing for 4,598 yards and 34 TD in his first three seasons in the league.
Chris Johnson may be returning in the back field for Tennessee, but he will have a new quarterback handing the ball off to him. QB Kerry Collins retired then came out of retirement and signed with the Colts and QB Vince Young was released and is now in Philadelphia. Tennessee was able to grab Matt Hasselbeck out of Seattle and they also drafted QB Jake Locker (Washington) with the eighth overall pick. Hasselbeck will start this season as Locker sits and learns, but the offense has a chance to very good.
The offensive line is one of the best in the league, in large part to why offensive line coach Mike Munchak was promoted to head coach this off-season. Hasselbeck and Locker are upgrades at the quarterback position, there is of course Chris Johnson at running back, and WR Nate Washington and WR Kenny Britt are due for big seasons. Defenses will load the box to stop Johnson, so Washington and Britt will have a lot of balls thrown their way and they will benefit from having Hasselbeck at quarterback compared to Collins or Young last season.
Defensively, the Titans must be better in every facet of the game. Tennessee ranked 29th against the pass and 20th against the run, which led to the signing and drafting of some new players. LB Barrett Ruud (Tampa Bay) and DT Shaun Smith (Kansas City) were signed as free agents and both should start on defense. Also, LB Akeem Ayers (UCLA) was drafted in the second round, who plays more like a defensive end than a linebacker and he will make an impact right away. The secondary is probably the most solid unit on the defense with CB Cortland Finnegan, SS Chris Hope and FS Michael Griffin all recording over 100 tackles last season.
With the improvements on defense, two new quarterbacks, Chris Johnson under contract and a new head coach, 2011 looks very promising for the Titans. However, I don't think it will be enough to get by Houston and Indianapolis in the division. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay all appear on the schedule and Tennessee will be lucky to win more than six or seven games.
Predicted Standings
The AFC South is a very solid division top to bottom and divisional games are always a dogfight. Indianapolis, Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are all pretty evenly matched and winning the South will not be easy. Peyton Manning and the Colts have done it before and they will do it again. Houston could pull out a division title and maybe Jacksonville or Tennessee will surprise everybody, but it's hard not pick the Colts to win their eighth division crown in nine seasons.
Predicted 2011 AFC South Standings:
Indianapolis: 10-6
Houston: 8-8
Jacksonville: 6-10
Tennessee: 6-10
Next up we continue our preview of the AFC by taking a look at the AFC East, which undoubtedly will be a two team race.
AFC South
Houston Texans: 6-10 (in 2010)
Houston enters their tenth season as a franchise in the NFL and the team has never looked more capable of reaching the playoffs. The stars are shining in Houston and some key additions to the roster have the Texans hoping 2011 will be their year.
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| Houston RB Arian Foster and the Texans will be trying to break away from the Colts in 2011. (AP Photo/Dave Einsel) |
As good as the offense is, the only way Houston gets to the playoffs is if the defense gets better, much better. The Texans were dead last at stopping the pass in 2010 and they made some much needed changes in the off-season to make sure that doesn't happen again. Safety Daniel Manning is over from Chicago and former Cincinnati Bengal Johnathan Joseph will start at corner. Manning and Joseph will greatly improve a secondary that allowed opposing offenses to go through them like a hot knife through butter. Joseph and Manning along with DE Mario Williams, LB Brian Cushing, LB DeMeco Ryans, LB Connor Barwin (Cincinnati) and rookie DE J.J. Watt (Wisconsin), should make Houston a lot better on defense.
So will 2011 finally be the year Houston gets to the playoffs? The talent is there, the coaching is there, the fans are behind them, but Peyton Manning and the Colts are still in the division. Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville in the division, not to mention New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tampa Bay and Atlanta on the schedule will keep the Texans out of the playoffs, again.
Indianapolis Colts: 10-6
Colts fans are starting to get concerned about the season, but take a deep breath and relax. Yes, Peyton Manning is still recovering from neck surgery and has yet to play this preseason, but he will be ready for the start of the season. Peyton hasn't missed a game since he was at Tennessee and President Clinton was in office. Peyton never plays much during the preseason and he might be rusty the first couple of weeks, but Manning is one of the best ever and he will be ready to go.
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| The key to the Colts success will once again fall on the shoulders of QB Peyton Manning. (Photo courtesy of Colts.com) |
With Manning under center the Colts are a 10 or 11 win team and their is a lot of talent around Manning. WR Reggie Wayne, WR Pierre Garcon, WR Austin Collie, TE Dallas Clark and RB Joseph Addai. That's just the offense. On defense there are plenty of stars as well, DE Dwight Freeney, DE Robert Mathis, DT Tommie Harris is over from the Bears, LB Gary Brackett and S Antoine Bethea. With all those stars the Colts will however start three rookies on the line, DT Drake Nevis (LSU), T Anthony Castonzo (Boston College) and G Ben Ijalana (Villanova), so that will be something to keep on eye on.
Indianapolis is loaded with talent and that talent will be tested. Games against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New England, New Orleans, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and their division rivals will require nothing but the best from Peyton Manning. The Colts may be getting older in some areas, but they will win the division again and could be playing a home game February 5, 2012 on Super Bowl Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8
The biggest question in Jacksonville this season revolves around the quarterback situation, but the most important questions surround the defense. Jacksonville was 28th against the pass and 22nd against the run last season and they made major changes this off-season on both sides of the ball.
CB Rashean Mathis is the leader of the Jaguar defense and he is one of the league's best cover corners, but that was about it. So, Jacksonville went out and signed LB Clint Session (Colts), LB Paul Posluszny (Buffalo), DE Matt Roth (Browns) and S Dawan Landry (Ravens) to beef up the defensive unit. Jacksonville also will have DE Aaron Kampman, who is coming off knee surgery, for a full season and DT Tyson Alualu is in his second season after playing well his rookie year. The new faces on defense should help Mathis and the Jaguars defense put up a stiffer resistance in 2011.
As for the offense, who will start at quarterback, David Garrard or rookie Blaine Gabbert? It looks like David Garrard is the favorite for now, but if Jacksonville gets off to a bad start Gabbert will take over. I think Garrard, who threw for 2,734 yards and set a franchise records in TD (23) and completion percentage (64.5), gives Jacksonville the best chance to win. Garrard did turn the ball over last season and has been hurt by injuries, which could work in Gabbert's favor. The Jaguars future rests in the arms of Gabbert, but they should stick with Garrard for now.
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| RB Maurice Jones-Drew was the main reason Jacksonville had the third best rushing attack in the NFL last season. (Harry Scull/Jaguars.com) |
Indianapolis and Houston are a dynamic duo to get past in the division and Tennessee is no push over either. With New Orleans, New York Jets, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Pittsburgh and San Diego on the schedule and that's enough to keep the Jaguars below the .500 mark.
Tennessee Titans: 6-10
RB Chris Johnson is no longer holding out and it only took til the fourth preseason game to end. Nonetheless, Chris Johnson got his money, a 4-year $53 million contract with a healthy sum of $30 million guaranteed. That's a huge contract to give to a guy who gets beat up week in and week out, but he certainly earned it, rushing for 4,598 yards and 34 TD in his first three seasons in the league.
Chris Johnson may be returning in the back field for Tennessee, but he will have a new quarterback handing the ball off to him. QB Kerry Collins retired then came out of retirement and signed with the Colts and QB Vince Young was released and is now in Philadelphia. Tennessee was able to grab Matt Hasselbeck out of Seattle and they also drafted QB Jake Locker (Washington) with the eighth overall pick. Hasselbeck will start this season as Locker sits and learns, but the offense has a chance to very good.
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| RB Chris Johnson, one of the league's best running backs, got a monster contract after holding out much of the preseason. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull) |
Defensively, the Titans must be better in every facet of the game. Tennessee ranked 29th against the pass and 20th against the run, which led to the signing and drafting of some new players. LB Barrett Ruud (Tampa Bay) and DT Shaun Smith (Kansas City) were signed as free agents and both should start on defense. Also, LB Akeem Ayers (UCLA) was drafted in the second round, who plays more like a defensive end than a linebacker and he will make an impact right away. The secondary is probably the most solid unit on the defense with CB Cortland Finnegan, SS Chris Hope and FS Michael Griffin all recording over 100 tackles last season.
With the improvements on defense, two new quarterbacks, Chris Johnson under contract and a new head coach, 2011 looks very promising for the Titans. However, I don't think it will be enough to get by Houston and Indianapolis in the division. Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New Orleans and Tampa Bay all appear on the schedule and Tennessee will be lucky to win more than six or seven games.
Predicted Standings
The AFC South is a very solid division top to bottom and divisional games are always a dogfight. Indianapolis, Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee are all pretty evenly matched and winning the South will not be easy. Peyton Manning and the Colts have done it before and they will do it again. Houston could pull out a division title and maybe Jacksonville or Tennessee will surprise everybody, but it's hard not pick the Colts to win their eighth division crown in nine seasons.
Predicted 2011 AFC South Standings:
Indianapolis: 10-6
Houston: 8-8
Jacksonville: 6-10
Tennessee: 6-10
Next up we continue our preview of the AFC by taking a look at the AFC East, which undoubtedly will be a two team race.
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