Week 11 Picks
10 weeks down, seven weeks to go.
We are at that point in the season where some teams are clearly out of it, some are alive, barely, while the rest look to be contention for the playoffs. I decided to take a look at all 32 teams and have grouped them into different categories based on their chances of reaching the playoffs. No team is completely out of contention...yet, but here are the chances I gave each team of making the playoffs.
"Playoffs?! You Kidding Me?!" (.0000001%):
-Oakland Raiders (0-9)
-Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
-Tennessee Titans (2-7)
-New York Jets (2-8)
-St. Louis Rams (3-6)
Mathematically alive, but otherwise out of it (10%):
-Chicago Bears (3-6)
-Washington Redskins (3-6)
-New York Giants (3-6)
NFC South...who knows??? (33.3%): Someone has to win this division, which I think will be New Orleans, but nonetheless, every team in the division is below .500.
-New Orleans Saints (4-5)
-Carolina Panthers (3-6-1)
-Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
In the hunt for a Wild Card spot, but need some help (50%):
-Houston Texans (4-5)
-San Diego Chargers (5-4)
-Buffalo Bills (5-4)
-Miami Dolphins (5-4)
-Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
-Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)
-San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
-Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
Battling it out for a division title (70%):
-Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
-Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
-Green Bay Packers (6-3)
-Detroit Lions (7-2)
-Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
-Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
-Cleveland Browns (6-3)
-Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1)
Super Bowl Favorites (95%):
-Denver Broncos (7-2)
-Arizona Cardinals (8-1, even without Carson Palmer)
-New England Patriots (7-2)
-Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
A lot could change from now until January, but it should be a fun last seven weeks of football. There are several games this week that are de facto elimination games, Buffalo-Miami, Atlanta-Carolina, Chicago-Minnesota, plus Detroit-Arizona, Philadelphia-Green Bay and New England-Indianapolis could play a key role when it comes to seeding for the playoffs.
Who will win these games you ask, see my predictions below.
Week 11 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
MIAMI over Buffalo: A de facto playoff game. Now, I know there is a lot of football left to be played, but seven teams in the AFC have at least six wins already and the entire AFC North is above .500. The Dolphins and Bills need as many wins as they can get and the loser of this one is not out of it, but the winner will be in much better shape. It's a short week and although Miami lost to Buffalo back in Week 2, 29-10, I like the Dolphins.
Atlanta over CAROLINA: The NFC South is without question, the worst division in the NFL. Amazingly, Atlanta (3-6) and Carolina (3-6-1) are still alive in the division because New Orleans is in first at 4-5. Now, like I stated earlier, I think the Saints will ultimately win the division, but the Falcons or Panthers can improve their chances with a win on Sunday. The Panthers have a terrible defense and in their last five games they have given up 141-points and have gone 0-4-1 in that stretch. Atlanta has won just one road game all year, but I like the Falcons, Sunday, in Carolina.
CHICAGO over Minnesota: Not that either of these teams will be making the playoffs, but with the Vikings at 4-5 and the Bears at 3-6, the loser of this one can start thinking about their offseason plans. The Bears have given up 106 points in the last two games and are currently last in the NFC North. The Vikings have won two straight and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been playing better, but I like the Bears. Chicago has more talent on offense and they have to start playing better eventually, right?
CLEVELAND over Houston: Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton played the worst game of his career last week against the Browns, so you have to wonder how Ryan Mallet will do in his first career NFL start against Cleveland. The Browns are in first place in the AFC North -- still can't believe I'm saying that -- and with being at home behind that defense and the solid play of quarterback Brian Hoyer, I like the Browns in this one.
Denver over ST. LOUIS: Peyton Manning got off to a slow start last week against the Raiders, but Manning went on to throw for five touchdown passes in a 41-17 win. Besides the brilliant play of Peyton, the story in Denver has been the defense, who ranks number one in stopping the run. I like the Broncos big over the Rams.
Seattle over KANSAS CITY: Don't expect the Seahawks to run for 350-yards like they did last week against the Giants, but expect them to run early and often. The Chiefs have the number one pass defense in the league, but they rank 20th when it comes to stopping the run. Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson have combined for 1,189-yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground and if the Seahawks are to get back to the Super Bowl, they have to continue running the ball. Kansas City has won four straight and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, but I like Seattle in a close game.
San Francisco over NY GIANTS: In the last four games, the NY Giants have given up 136-points (all losses) and they gave up 350-yards rushing to the Seahawks last week. Not surprisingly, the Giants rank dead last in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run at 144.7-yards per game. The 49ers got a much needed win last week in New Orleans they will keep their season alive with a win on Sunday.
WASHINGTON over Tampa Bay: Tampa and Washington are a combined 4-14 and both are in last place. In a meaningless game, I like the Redskins for the simple fact that they are at home and because the Buccaneers are terrible.
SAN DIEGO over Oakland: The Raiders get one game closer to becoming the third team in NFL history to go 0-16.
ARIZONA over Detroit: It is a shame that quarterback Carson Palmer is now out for the year after tearing his ACL for the second time in his career last Sunday, but don't count out the Cardinals just yet. I think Arizona still has a great chance to make it to the Super Bowl because of two things, their defense and their head coach. The Arizona defense is ranked 15th in total defense, but they are third in stopping the run and they make plays when they need too. Even with injuries to Darnell Dockett and others, they still rank third in the league in points allowed. Also, head coach Bruce Arians is a great coach and should run away with Coach of the Year honors. I believe he can win with whoever is at quarterback, even if it's Drew Stanton.
GREEN BAY over Philadelphia: Six touchdowns passes for Aaron Rodgers in one half?! That's how bad the Bears have been this season, but it also shows just how good Rodgers and the Packers are on offense. I know that Mark Sanchez played well last week for the Eagles, but that was against the Panthers, one of the worst teams in football. Green Bay has won five of their past six and they are 4-0 at home this season. I think it will be a good game, but I like Rodgers and the Packers.
New England over INDIANAPOLIS: Game of the Week. Tom Brady vs. Andrew Luck. This could be one of the best games of the year. I can see both teams winning this game, but I took the Patriots here for two reasons. First, ever since the debacle on Monday night against the Chiefs, the Patriots have won five in a row and are averaging 40.2 points per game. In that span, Tom Brady has thrown 18 touchdowns and one interception. Second, the Colts have struggled in games against good opponents. The three best teams Indy has played this year, Denver, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, they lost to them all. New England is one of the best teams in football and with Tom Brady on fire at the moment, it's hard to pick against the Patriots this week.
Pittsburgh over TENNESSEE: A very surprising turn of events last Sunday in the Meadowlands for the Steelers, losing to the NY Jets, but I don't expect another upset on Monday night. The Titans are going to have a top five pick in next year's draft and I look for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to have a big game and lead Pittsburgh to a win before heading into the bye week.
SAINTS over Bengals: Andy, Andy, Andy. Use any adjective you want to describe the play of quarterback Andy Dalton last Thursday night against the Browns, pathetic, terrible, bad, horrible, abysmal, frustrating, humiliating, embarrassing, dreadful, appalling and maybe even predictable. The game last Thursday night was in prime time and Bengals fans know how their team plays on the national stage. Most of the time it looks like they didn't even practice, watched film or even had a game plan going into the game.
Instead of improving, Dalton seems to be regressing. He is missing open receivers, he as overthrown a ball too many times to count, he has terrible ball security and the fact of the matter is he does not look like an NFL quarterback. Personally, I like Andy, I think he has the potential to be a great quarterback, but in the most pressure situations aka big games and playoffs, he has failed every time. And that is unacceptable.
On Sunday, Andy will go up against one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Drew Brees. The Saints haven't had a good season thus far, but they are still in control of the NFC South. The Bengals defense has not been playing well since the bye week and the Bengals have historically struggled in covering tight ends. This season alone they have allowed 52 receptions for 678-yards and four touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including a 100-yard performance by Rob Gronkowski. Along with Gronk, Jimmy Graham is the other top tight end in the NFL. He and Drew Brees are probably licking their chops with the struggling Bengals coming to town.
If Andy plays well, then the Bengals have a chance, but I think Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham will dominate the Bengals defense and get the win. Saints 31, Bengals 24.
Bye: Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville, NY Jets
Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 103-43-1
We are at that point in the season where some teams are clearly out of it, some are alive, barely, while the rest look to be contention for the playoffs. I decided to take a look at all 32 teams and have grouped them into different categories based on their chances of reaching the playoffs. No team is completely out of contention...yet, but here are the chances I gave each team of making the playoffs.
 |
| It has been a long season for Derek Carr (4) and the winless Oakland Raiders. (Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America) |
-Oakland Raiders (0-9)
-Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
-Tennessee Titans (2-7)
-New York Jets (2-8)
-St. Louis Rams (3-6)
Mathematically alive, but otherwise out of it (10%):
-Chicago Bears (3-6)
-Washington Redskins (3-6)
-New York Giants (3-6)
NFC South...who knows??? (33.3%): Someone has to win this division, which I think will be New Orleans, but nonetheless, every team in the division is below .500.
-New Orleans Saints (4-5)
-Carolina Panthers (3-6-1)
-Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
In the hunt for a Wild Card spot, but need some help (50%):
-Houston Texans (4-5)
-San Diego Chargers (5-4)
-Buffalo Bills (5-4)
-Miami Dolphins (5-4)
-Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
-Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)
-San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
-Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
Battling it out for a division title (70%):
-Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
-Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
-Green Bay Packers (6-3)
-Detroit Lions (7-2)
-Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
-Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
-Cleveland Browns (6-3)
-Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1)
Super Bowl Favorites (95%):
-Denver Broncos (7-2)
-Arizona Cardinals (8-1, even without Carson Palmer)
-New England Patriots (7-2)
-Indianapolis Colts (6-3)
A lot could change from now until January, but it should be a fun last seven weeks of football. There are several games this week that are de facto elimination games, Buffalo-Miami, Atlanta-Carolina, Chicago-Minnesota, plus Detroit-Arizona, Philadelphia-Green Bay and New England-Indianapolis could play a key role when it comes to seeding for the playoffs.
Who will win these games you ask, see my predictions below.
Week 11 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
MIAMI over Buffalo: A de facto playoff game. Now, I know there is a lot of football left to be played, but seven teams in the AFC have at least six wins already and the entire AFC North is above .500. The Dolphins and Bills need as many wins as they can get and the loser of this one is not out of it, but the winner will be in much better shape. It's a short week and although Miami lost to Buffalo back in Week 2, 29-10, I like the Dolphins.
Atlanta over CAROLINA: The NFC South is without question, the worst division in the NFL. Amazingly, Atlanta (3-6) and Carolina (3-6-1) are still alive in the division because New Orleans is in first at 4-5. Now, like I stated earlier, I think the Saints will ultimately win the division, but the Falcons or Panthers can improve their chances with a win on Sunday. The Panthers have a terrible defense and in their last five games they have given up 141-points and have gone 0-4-1 in that stretch. Atlanta has won just one road game all year, but I like the Falcons, Sunday, in Carolina.
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| Jay Cutler turned it over three times, including this 82-yard interception return for a touchdown by Casey Hayward (29), in a 55-14 loss to the Packers last week. (AP Photo) |
CLEVELAND over Houston: Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton played the worst game of his career last week against the Browns, so you have to wonder how Ryan Mallet will do in his first career NFL start against Cleveland. The Browns are in first place in the AFC North -- still can't believe I'm saying that -- and with being at home behind that defense and the solid play of quarterback Brian Hoyer, I like the Browns in this one.
Denver over ST. LOUIS: Peyton Manning got off to a slow start last week against the Raiders, but Manning went on to throw for five touchdown passes in a 41-17 win. Besides the brilliant play of Peyton, the story in Denver has been the defense, who ranks number one in stopping the run. I like the Broncos big over the Rams.
Seattle over KANSAS CITY: Don't expect the Seahawks to run for 350-yards like they did last week against the Giants, but expect them to run early and often. The Chiefs have the number one pass defense in the league, but they rank 20th when it comes to stopping the run. Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson have combined for 1,189-yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground and if the Seahawks are to get back to the Super Bowl, they have to continue running the ball. Kansas City has won four straight and Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to play, but I like Seattle in a close game.
San Francisco over NY GIANTS: In the last four games, the NY Giants have given up 136-points (all losses) and they gave up 350-yards rushing to the Seahawks last week. Not surprisingly, the Giants rank dead last in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run at 144.7-yards per game. The 49ers got a much needed win last week in New Orleans they will keep their season alive with a win on Sunday.
WASHINGTON over Tampa Bay: Tampa and Washington are a combined 4-14 and both are in last place. In a meaningless game, I like the Redskins for the simple fact that they are at home and because the Buccaneers are terrible.
SAN DIEGO over Oakland: The Raiders get one game closer to becoming the third team in NFL history to go 0-16.
ARIZONA over Detroit: It is a shame that quarterback Carson Palmer is now out for the year after tearing his ACL for the second time in his career last Sunday, but don't count out the Cardinals just yet. I think Arizona still has a great chance to make it to the Super Bowl because of two things, their defense and their head coach. The Arizona defense is ranked 15th in total defense, but they are third in stopping the run and they make plays when they need too. Even with injuries to Darnell Dockett and others, they still rank third in the league in points allowed. Also, head coach Bruce Arians is a great coach and should run away with Coach of the Year honors. I believe he can win with whoever is at quarterback, even if it's Drew Stanton.
GREEN BAY over Philadelphia: Six touchdowns passes for Aaron Rodgers in one half?! That's how bad the Bears have been this season, but it also shows just how good Rodgers and the Packers are on offense. I know that Mark Sanchez played well last week for the Eagles, but that was against the Panthers, one of the worst teams in football. Green Bay has won five of their past six and they are 4-0 at home this season. I think it will be a good game, but I like Rodgers and the Packers.
New England over INDIANAPOLIS: Game of the Week. Tom Brady vs. Andrew Luck. This could be one of the best games of the year. I can see both teams winning this game, but I took the Patriots here for two reasons. First, ever since the debacle on Monday night against the Chiefs, the Patriots have won five in a row and are averaging 40.2 points per game. In that span, Tom Brady has thrown 18 touchdowns and one interception. Second, the Colts have struggled in games against good opponents. The three best teams Indy has played this year, Denver, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, they lost to them all. New England is one of the best teams in football and with Tom Brady on fire at the moment, it's hard to pick against the Patriots this week.
Pittsburgh over TENNESSEE: A very surprising turn of events last Sunday in the Meadowlands for the Steelers, losing to the NY Jets, but I don't expect another upset on Monday night. The Titans are going to have a top five pick in next year's draft and I look for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to have a big game and lead Pittsburgh to a win before heading into the bye week.
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| Andy Dalton had a historically bad game against the Browns, going 10-of-33 for 86-yards, three interceptions and a quarterback rating of 2.0. (The Cincinnati Enquirer/Jeff Swinger) |
Instead of improving, Dalton seems to be regressing. He is missing open receivers, he as overthrown a ball too many times to count, he has terrible ball security and the fact of the matter is he does not look like an NFL quarterback. Personally, I like Andy, I think he has the potential to be a great quarterback, but in the most pressure situations aka big games and playoffs, he has failed every time. And that is unacceptable.
On Sunday, Andy will go up against one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Drew Brees. The Saints haven't had a good season thus far, but they are still in control of the NFC South. The Bengals defense has not been playing well since the bye week and the Bengals have historically struggled in covering tight ends. This season alone they have allowed 52 receptions for 678-yards and four touchdowns to opposing tight ends, including a 100-yard performance by Rob Gronkowski. Along with Gronk, Jimmy Graham is the other top tight end in the NFL. He and Drew Brees are probably licking their chops with the struggling Bengals coming to town.
If Andy plays well, then the Bengals have a chance, but I think Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham will dominate the Bengals defense and get the win. Saints 31, Bengals 24.
Bye: Baltimore, Dallas, Jacksonville, NY Jets
Last Week: 10-3
Overall: 103-43-1
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