Week 12 Picks
No other professional sports league in the world is more unpredictable than the NFL. If you don't believe me, just look at last week, heck, look at the entire NFL season for that matter.
Who had St. Louis beating Denver and holding Peyton Manning to seven points? Who had Jonas Gray (who's that?) rushing for 201-yards and four touchdowns against the Colts? Who foresaw the Saints losing two straight home games and still being tied for first place in the NFC South at 4-6? Who had the Packers scoring 50 plus points for the second week in a row, a feat that had never been done before in their storied history? Who had the Arizona Cardinals having the best record in the NFL after 11 weeks and had Arizona winning four games with Drew Stanton at quarterback?
The answer to all of those questions is most likely nobody, but if for some lucky reason you did predict one of things I just mentioned, I suggest you go to Vegas or buy a lottery ticket. The NFL never seizes to amaze me and I absolutely love how the 2014 season has unfolded thus far. I predict we will see even more amazing things in Week 12, in fact, I'd bet on it, it's the NFL after all.
My picks for this week's games are below.
Week 12 Picks (Home teams in CAPS)
Kansas City over OAKLAND: With their 13-6 loss to the Chargers last week, the Raiders became the first team in the NFL to be eliminated from the playoffs. Another disappointing season continues in Oakland as the Raiders will lose their 17th game in a row to the Chiefs on Thursday night.
ATLANTA over Cleveland: The Falcons are 4-6, have yet to win a game outside the division, have a minus-17 point differential and according to ESPN, Atlanta currently has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. And yet they are in first place in the NFC South. What?! Someone has to win the division, which I still think will be the Saints, but the Falcons are in good shape, I guess. As for the Browns, they had a bad loss to the Texans last week and I'm still not sold on them as a potential playoff team. They are 6-4, but are 2-2 on the road where quarterback Brian Hoyer has struggled. On the road, Hoyer has a 53.4 completion percentage, has thrown only four touchdowns and has a QB rating of 79.9. At home, he has a 57.2 completion percentage, has thrown seven touchdowns and has a QB rating of 90.1. The Falcons always seem to play better in the Georgia Dome, so I like Atlanta in the upset, if you can even call it that.
PHILADELPHIA over Tennessee: I bet everyone is off of the Mark Sanchez bandwagon after his four turnover performance last week in Green Bay as the Eagles were annihilated by the Packers 53-20, but don't ride off the Eagle just yet. Philadelphia is still 7-3 on the season and they are tied with Dallas atop the division. The Eagles play the Cowboys next Thursday on Thanksgiving and as long as they don't look ahead to next week, they should beat the dread 2-7 Titans.
NEW ENGLAND over Detroit: Raise your hand if you had Jonas Gray rushing for 201-yards and four touchdowns on 38-carries last week in Indianapolis. Yea, I saw that coming too. Wrong. The Patriots never cease to amaze me. They have more unknown players make a significant impact on a game than any other team in football. We all knew how deadly Tom Brady and the passing game are for New England, but now, after rushing for 244-yards last week, they have a running game. The Lions have the number one run defense and the number one overall defense in the NFL, but I don't think they will be good enough to stop a Patriots team that hasn't lost in almost two months.
Green Bay over MINNESOTA: In their last two games, the Packers have outscored their opponents 108-34 (72-6 in the first half) and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 656-yards and nine touchdowns in the stretch while not playing an entire 60 minutes in either game. Not to mention, the last time the Packers played the Vikings, they won 42-10 and were up 42-0 at the end of three quarters. My prediction in this one, Packers by 20 and Rodgers doesn't play the full 60 minutes. Looking ahead to next week, Tom Brady and the Patriots visit Green Bay. Super Bowl preview, perhaps?
INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville: Ugly loss for the Colts last Sunday night against the Patriots where they were out rushed 244-19 and they lost running back Ahmad Bradshaw for the year with a broken ankle. Good news for Indianapolis is that they have two winnable games coming up with the Jaguars and Redskins visiting Lucas Oil Stadium in the next two weeks. Indy beat Jacksonville 44-17 in their first meeting in Week 3 and I expect another lopsided Colts win on Sunday.
BUFFALO over NY Jets: Bills will beat the Jets on Sunday even though the game won't be played in Buffalo due to the snow. Buffalo received up over six feet of snow this week and it was so bad that Buffalo Sabres forward Patrick Kaleta was unable to make it to the Sabres game against the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night because he was snowed in. The paid attendance for the game was 17,435, but only an estimated 6,200 were able to make it to the arena. Bills players took to social media for reactions on all the snow and head coach Doug Marrone and kicker Dan Carpenter even helped some of their fellow citizens of Buffalo with their snow troubles. We'll see if the Bill and Jets are able to play on Sunday or Monday or whatever the case may be, but whenever they do play, I like the Bills to get the win.
CHICAGO over Tampa Bay: There are three story lines for Bucs vs. Bears this week. Number one, quarterback Josh McCown returns to Chicago. McCown had a breakout year filling in for Jay Cutler last season in Chicago and it resulted in him getting a two-year, $10 million contract from Tampa Bay. I'll be curious to see how he plays in his return. Second, Bucs head coach Lovie Smith returns to Chicago where he was the coach for eight years and went to a Super Bowl. Smith was fired after going 10-6 in 2012, so I doubt it will be a warm homecoming. Third, it is the battle of giant receivers. Tampa Bay's Mike Evans -- who had seven receptions for 209-yards and two touchdowns last week -- and Vincent Jackson are both listed at 6' 5" and Chicago's Alshon Jeffrey is 6' 3", Brandon Marshall is 6' 4" and tight end Martellus Bennett is listed at 6' 6". That is an average height of 6' 4" and they all weigh an average of 234 lbs. With that being said, I like a lot of points to be scored with these huge receivers, plus both Tampa Bay and Chicago rank in the top four in points allowed this season. The Bears have more talent and with them being at home, I like Chicago.
Arizona over SEATTLE: This is the toughest game to pick this week. Both teams make a compelling argument for why they'll win this weekend. Arizona has the best record in football, they have a great defense and a brilliant head coach. Seattle has a great defense, the number one rushing attack in the NFL and the game is at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, the toughest place to play in the league. Now that quarterback Carson Palmer is out for the year, many wonder if the Cardinals chances of reaching the Super Bowl are gone. Arizona has proved that they have the team to get there, the question is, can they become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium with Drew Stanton at quarterback. Sunday will test Stanton and we will have much better understanding on whether he can lead a team to a championship. Great game should be in store on Sunday and I think Drew Stanton will play well in an Arizona win.
SAN DIEGO over St. Louis: I really thought about taking St. Louis here after what they did to Denver last week, but the Chargers are at home and they can't afford to lose this game if they are to stay alive in the AFC playoff race. At 6-4, San Diego cannot lose to a team that is 4-6 and on its backup quarterback. The Rams have a great defense, as we saw last week, and they will keep it close, but I like the Chargers to come out on top.
DENVER over Miami: Don't expect Peyton Manning to be held to seven points two weeks in a row. Bad loss for Denver in St. Louis last week and they got hit hard by the injury bug. Running back Montee Ball, receiver Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Julius Thomas all suffered injuries in Denver's 22-7 loss to St. Louis. Ball and running back Ronnie Hillman will both be out for Sunday's game against Miami and Thomas and Sanders are listed as questionable. Even with some of Peyton's weapons hurt, I just don't see the Broncos losing two in a row, especially since they are at home this week where they are 5-0 this season.
SAN FRANCISCO over Washington: One word describes the Washington Redskins season thus far, disaster. From numerous protesters at games wanting owner Dan Snyder to change the team name to the terrible play of the team, it has been a mess in Washington. There are rumors that there is a divide in the locker room between quarterback Robert Griffin III and some of the other players and to be honest, I think things in Washington are going to get worse before they get better. San Francisco has had two much needed wins on the road in the last two weeks and they need a win on Sunday to keep up with the NFC playoff race. I think the 49ers will win easily and keep an eye on rookie linebacker Chris Borland. Borland has played brilliantly filling in for the injured Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman at linebacker. He has 48 tackles in the last three game and he picked off Eli Manning twice last week. If he keeps it up, he might be bringing home Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Dallas over NY GIANTS: Before last week, Giants quarterback Eli Manning had thrown just six interceptions. Having now thrown five picks against the 49ers, Eli now ranks third in the NFL with 11 interceptions. Turnovers are a killer in the NFL and the Giants have lost five straight and they face a rested and healthier (?) Tony Romo and the Cowboys on Sunday. Dallas won 31-21 in Week 7 and I expect a similar result on Sunday.
NEW ORLEANS over Baltimore: As dominate as the Saints have been at home in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era, it is hard to fathom that they have lost two straight home games this season. The Saints just aren't the team that everyone thought they were, but the good news is that they play in the worst division in football. The playoffs aren't out of the realm of possibilities just yet, but New Orleans needs a win on Monday night. Baltimore has a decent team and they are coming off of a bye, however, the Saints can't lose three in a row at home, can they? I don't think they will, so I got the Saints in this one.
Bengals over TEXANS: Apart from a Saints fan taking away a gift from Jermaine Gresham to a Bengals fan, Cincinnati had a great Sunday in New Orleans. Andy Dalton played well, three touchdowns and no interceptions, the defense limited Jimmy Graham to just three catches for 29-yards and they held the Saints to just 75-yards rushing on 26 carries.
The Bengals did what they had to do on Sunday and that was win, now they need to keep the momentum going and get another win in Houston this week.
The last two times these teams faced off it was in the playoffs, both of which were wins for Houston. In those two games, Andy Dalton was a combined 41-72 for 384-yards, four interceptions, zero touchdowns and a QB rating of 48.1. And in those two games, the Texans J.J. Watt has two sacks and a 29-yard interception return for a touchdown. With that being said, Andy has to play well if the Bengals are to win on Sunday.
If Andy plays well and the Bengals find a way to stop J.J. Watt from making an impact on defense and offense -- according to the Elias Sport Bureau, Watt is the first player since Bears defensive back J.C. Caroline in 1956 to score multiple touchdowns on offense and defense in the same season -- then the Bengals will win in Houston. Remember, Texans quarterback Ryan Mallet is only making his second career start, so I expect the Bengals to load the box to stop the run and blitz Mallet all day. I think it will be a close game and I like the Bengals to get their seventh win of the season. Bengals 30, Texans 24.
Bye: Carolina, Pittsburgh
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 112-48-1
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| Jonas Gray (35) went all "Beast Mode" on the Colts last Sunday night. (Thomas J. Russo/USA TODAY Sports) |
The answer to all of those questions is most likely nobody, but if for some lucky reason you did predict one of things I just mentioned, I suggest you go to Vegas or buy a lottery ticket. The NFL never seizes to amaze me and I absolutely love how the 2014 season has unfolded thus far. I predict we will see even more amazing things in Week 12, in fact, I'd bet on it, it's the NFL after all.
My picks for this week's games are below.
Week 12 Picks (Home teams in CAPS)
Kansas City over OAKLAND: With their 13-6 loss to the Chargers last week, the Raiders became the first team in the NFL to be eliminated from the playoffs. Another disappointing season continues in Oakland as the Raiders will lose their 17th game in a row to the Chiefs on Thursday night.
ATLANTA over Cleveland: The Falcons are 4-6, have yet to win a game outside the division, have a minus-17 point differential and according to ESPN, Atlanta currently has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. And yet they are in first place in the NFC South. What?! Someone has to win the division, which I still think will be the Saints, but the Falcons are in good shape, I guess. As for the Browns, they had a bad loss to the Texans last week and I'm still not sold on them as a potential playoff team. They are 6-4, but are 2-2 on the road where quarterback Brian Hoyer has struggled. On the road, Hoyer has a 53.4 completion percentage, has thrown only four touchdowns and has a QB rating of 79.9. At home, he has a 57.2 completion percentage, has thrown seven touchdowns and has a QB rating of 90.1. The Falcons always seem to play better in the Georgia Dome, so I like Atlanta in the upset, if you can even call it that.
PHILADELPHIA over Tennessee: I bet everyone is off of the Mark Sanchez bandwagon after his four turnover performance last week in Green Bay as the Eagles were annihilated by the Packers 53-20, but don't ride off the Eagle just yet. Philadelphia is still 7-3 on the season and they are tied with Dallas atop the division. The Eagles play the Cowboys next Thursday on Thanksgiving and as long as they don't look ahead to next week, they should beat the dread 2-7 Titans.
NEW ENGLAND over Detroit: Raise your hand if you had Jonas Gray rushing for 201-yards and four touchdowns on 38-carries last week in Indianapolis. Yea, I saw that coming too. Wrong. The Patriots never cease to amaze me. They have more unknown players make a significant impact on a game than any other team in football. We all knew how deadly Tom Brady and the passing game are for New England, but now, after rushing for 244-yards last week, they have a running game. The Lions have the number one run defense and the number one overall defense in the NFL, but I don't think they will be good enough to stop a Patriots team that hasn't lost in almost two months.
Green Bay over MINNESOTA: In their last two games, the Packers have outscored their opponents 108-34 (72-6 in the first half) and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 656-yards and nine touchdowns in the stretch while not playing an entire 60 minutes in either game. Not to mention, the last time the Packers played the Vikings, they won 42-10 and were up 42-0 at the end of three quarters. My prediction in this one, Packers by 20 and Rodgers doesn't play the full 60 minutes. Looking ahead to next week, Tom Brady and the Patriots visit Green Bay. Super Bowl preview, perhaps?
INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville: Ugly loss for the Colts last Sunday night against the Patriots where they were out rushed 244-19 and they lost running back Ahmad Bradshaw for the year with a broken ankle. Good news for Indianapolis is that they have two winnable games coming up with the Jaguars and Redskins visiting Lucas Oil Stadium in the next two weeks. Indy beat Jacksonville 44-17 in their first meeting in Week 3 and I expect another lopsided Colts win on Sunday.
BUFFALO over NY Jets: Bills will beat the Jets on Sunday even though the game won't be played in Buffalo due to the snow. Buffalo received up over six feet of snow this week and it was so bad that Buffalo Sabres forward Patrick Kaleta was unable to make it to the Sabres game against the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night because he was snowed in. The paid attendance for the game was 17,435, but only an estimated 6,200 were able to make it to the arena. Bills players took to social media for reactions on all the snow and head coach Doug Marrone and kicker Dan Carpenter even helped some of their fellow citizens of Buffalo with their snow troubles. We'll see if the Bill and Jets are able to play on Sunday or Monday or whatever the case may be, but whenever they do play, I like the Bills to get the win.
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| Lovie Smith faces his former team when he and the 2-8 Buccaneers visit Solider Field in Chicago on Sunday. (Andrew Weber/USA TODAY Sports) |
Arizona over SEATTLE: This is the toughest game to pick this week. Both teams make a compelling argument for why they'll win this weekend. Arizona has the best record in football, they have a great defense and a brilliant head coach. Seattle has a great defense, the number one rushing attack in the NFL and the game is at CenturyLink Field in Seattle, the toughest place to play in the league. Now that quarterback Carson Palmer is out for the year, many wonder if the Cardinals chances of reaching the Super Bowl are gone. Arizona has proved that they have the team to get there, the question is, can they become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium with Drew Stanton at quarterback. Sunday will test Stanton and we will have much better understanding on whether he can lead a team to a championship. Great game should be in store on Sunday and I think Drew Stanton will play well in an Arizona win.
SAN DIEGO over St. Louis: I really thought about taking St. Louis here after what they did to Denver last week, but the Chargers are at home and they can't afford to lose this game if they are to stay alive in the AFC playoff race. At 6-4, San Diego cannot lose to a team that is 4-6 and on its backup quarterback. The Rams have a great defense, as we saw last week, and they will keep it close, but I like the Chargers to come out on top.
DENVER over Miami: Don't expect Peyton Manning to be held to seven points two weeks in a row. Bad loss for Denver in St. Louis last week and they got hit hard by the injury bug. Running back Montee Ball, receiver Emmanuel Sanders and tight end Julius Thomas all suffered injuries in Denver's 22-7 loss to St. Louis. Ball and running back Ronnie Hillman will both be out for Sunday's game against Miami and Thomas and Sanders are listed as questionable. Even with some of Peyton's weapons hurt, I just don't see the Broncos losing two in a row, especially since they are at home this week where they are 5-0 this season.
SAN FRANCISCO over Washington: One word describes the Washington Redskins season thus far, disaster. From numerous protesters at games wanting owner Dan Snyder to change the team name to the terrible play of the team, it has been a mess in Washington. There are rumors that there is a divide in the locker room between quarterback Robert Griffin III and some of the other players and to be honest, I think things in Washington are going to get worse before they get better. San Francisco has had two much needed wins on the road in the last two weeks and they need a win on Sunday to keep up with the NFC playoff race. I think the 49ers will win easily and keep an eye on rookie linebacker Chris Borland. Borland has played brilliantly filling in for the injured Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman at linebacker. He has 48 tackles in the last three game and he picked off Eli Manning twice last week. If he keeps it up, he might be bringing home Defensive Rookie of the Year honors.
Dallas over NY GIANTS: Before last week, Giants quarterback Eli Manning had thrown just six interceptions. Having now thrown five picks against the 49ers, Eli now ranks third in the NFL with 11 interceptions. Turnovers are a killer in the NFL and the Giants have lost five straight and they face a rested and healthier (?) Tony Romo and the Cowboys on Sunday. Dallas won 31-21 in Week 7 and I expect a similar result on Sunday.
NEW ORLEANS over Baltimore: As dominate as the Saints have been at home in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era, it is hard to fathom that they have lost two straight home games this season. The Saints just aren't the team that everyone thought they were, but the good news is that they play in the worst division in football. The playoffs aren't out of the realm of possibilities just yet, but New Orleans needs a win on Monday night. Baltimore has a decent team and they are coming off of a bye, however, the Saints can't lose three in a row at home, can they? I don't think they will, so I got the Saints in this one.
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| The only thing that went wrong for the Bengals on Sunday was that Jermaine Gresham's gift to a Bengals fan, after he scored a touchdown, was intercepted by a Saints fan in a gold sweatshirt. (AP Photo/Bill Haber) |
The Bengals did what they had to do on Sunday and that was win, now they need to keep the momentum going and get another win in Houston this week.
The last two times these teams faced off it was in the playoffs, both of which were wins for Houston. In those two games, Andy Dalton was a combined 41-72 for 384-yards, four interceptions, zero touchdowns and a QB rating of 48.1. And in those two games, the Texans J.J. Watt has two sacks and a 29-yard interception return for a touchdown. With that being said, Andy has to play well if the Bengals are to win on Sunday.
If Andy plays well and the Bengals find a way to stop J.J. Watt from making an impact on defense and offense -- according to the Elias Sport Bureau, Watt is the first player since Bears defensive back J.C. Caroline in 1956 to score multiple touchdowns on offense and defense in the same season -- then the Bengals will win in Houston. Remember, Texans quarterback Ryan Mallet is only making his second career start, so I expect the Bengals to load the box to stop the run and blitz Mallet all day. I think it will be a close game and I like the Bengals to get their seventh win of the season. Bengals 30, Texans 24.
Bye: Carolina, Pittsburgh
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 112-48-1
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