NFL 2015: Week 14 Picks
First off, what an upset by the Philadelphia Eagles.
After giving up 90 points in the last two weeks in losses to the Lions and Buccaneers, the Eagles found a way to beat the Patriots in Foxboro.
Yes, New England was without Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis, but they still had Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The upset by the Eagles is the upset of the year in the NFL and with the Redskins losing on Monday night, the Eagles are still in the pathetic NFC East race.
Speaking of the NFC East race, with four weeks left to play, let's look at the playoff picture, starting with the NFC.
IN: Carolina (12-0): clinched the NFC South on Sunday.
WILL BE IN: Arizona (10-2), Green Bay (8-4), Minnesota (8-4): Cardinals are the second best team in the NFC and despite the recent struggles of the Packers and Vikings, both will be playing in January as well.
PROBABLY WILL BE IN: Seattle (7-5): The Seahawks are starting to play like the team that has gone to back-to-back Super Bowls.
IN THE HUNT: Atlanta (6-6), Tampa Bay (6-6), Washington (5-7), Philadelphia (5-7), NY Giants (5-7), Dallas (4-8): Someone has to win the NFC East and it's looking like whoever it is won't have a winning record. As for the Falcons and Buccaneers, they're still in the hunt, but I'd be surprised to see either of them in the playoffs.
Now for the AFC.
JUST ABOUT IN: Cincinnati (10-2), Denver (10-2), New England (10-2): It will be interesting the next four weeks to see who emerges as the number one seed. One of the key games will be in Week 16 when the Bengals travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on Monday Night Football.
WILL BE IN: Kansas City (7-5): Winners of six straight with San Diego, Cleveland, Baltimore and Oakland left on the schedule. The Chiefs could end the season on a 10-game winning streak.
IN THE HUNT: NY Jets (7-5), Pittsburgh (7-5), Buffalo (6-6), Houston (6-6), Indianapolis (6-6): The Texans or Colts will win the AFC South, most likely at 8-8, with the key game being in Week 15 when Houston travels to Indianapolis. As for the other three, my bet is on the Steelers. They have arguably the best offense in football and games against the Ravens and Browns to end the season.
The playoff intensity will only continue to grow as the remaining weeks go on and it should be an exciting race to the finish.
Up next, my picks for Week 14.
Week 14 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
ARIZONA over Minnesota (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL): Potential playoff matchup on Thursday night in Arizona between the Cardinals and Vikings. I was really high on the Vikings going into last week, but the Seahawks just annihilated them at home, 38-7, and RB Adrian Peterson ran for a pitiful 18 yards on eight carries. QB Teddy Bridgewater didn't play well either throwing for only 118 yards and an interception. Things won't get any easier for the Vikings on a short week out in Arizona. The Cardinals are more explosive on offense and arguably have a better defense than the Seahawks. I expect the Cardinals to load the box to stop Peterson and make Bridgewater beat them, which I won't think he will. Carson Palmer leads the Cardinals to another win.
PHILADELPHIA over Buffalo (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): How do you not take the Eagles here? Unless you're a diehard Bills, Cowboys, Giants or Redskins fan, I cannot see how you pick against the Philadelphia Eagles after what they did last week. No one, not even the biggest Eagles fans in Philadelphia gave their team a chance to beat the Patriots in Foxboro last week. Philly had given up 90 points the two weeks prior, but they found a way to score 21 points off a blocked punt, interception return and punt return to beat the Patriots. Bills RB LeSean McCoy will play well in his return to Philadelphia, but I can't pick against the Eagles and the momentum they will have carried over from last week.
San Francisco over CLEVELAND (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Last week I said that I would not be picking the St. Louis Rams to win another game this season. Well, add the Cleveland Browns to that list. Cleveland is the worse run organization in professional sports and who knows when they'll win another game. Johnny Manziel is back at quarterback this week and good luck to him going up against a physical 49ers defense.
Detroit over ST. LOUIS (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Not picking the Rams anymore in 2015 and sticking to that statement here. QB Nick Foles continues to struggle -- 15/35 for 146 yards and an interception last week -- and has once again lost the starting job to Case Keenum, who passed his concussion tests. I would start rookie Sean Mannion to get him some experience and see what he can do, but that's just me. Don't expect the Lions to lose on a Hail Mary at the end of this one. I think Detroit will win by two scores.
TAMPA BAY over New Orleans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Another 41 points allowed and 497 yards of offense given up for the New Orleans defense resulting in another loss. The Saints are a disaster on defense and to be honest, Drew Brees and the offense could put up 50 and it still may not be enough. Buccaneers beat the Saints for a second time.
NY JETS over Tennessee (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Jets should win this game as long as they contain Titans QB Marcus Mariota. Mariota threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another 112 yards and a score in last week's win against the Jaguars. In wins this season, Mariota has thrown 11 touchdown passes and only one interception. In losses, he's thrown eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. If the Jets can force Mariota to make mistakes and keep him contained, they should win and improve their playoff chances.
CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Big game in the Queen City on Sunday. The Bengals number one ranked scoring defense faces the hottest offense in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati was able to hold Pittsburgh to just 10 points in a win in the Steel City back on November 1st, but QB Ben Roethlisberger was banged up and threw three interceptions. The Bengals will be without their best corner, Adam Jones, on Sunday and that is not good news as the Steelers receivers have run wild the last four games. In those games, the Steelers have scored 143 points and put up 2,116 yards of offense, 35.8 PPG and 529 YPG average. With that being said, however, I like the Bengals here. Cincinnati will get the league's leading touchdown reception leader back in TE Tyler Eifert and the Bengals are 5-1 at home this season, while the Steelers are just 2-3 on the road. It'll be a tough, physical game like the first one and I like the Bengals to clinch the AFC North with a win.
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): I originally wrote Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE, but changed it because I think the Jaguars have improved enough to beat the Colts. Yes, Indianapolis has won 16 straight AFC South games and beat the Jaguars 16-13 already this season, but I'm going with the upset. Jaguars QB Blake Bortles threw for 322 yards and five touchdowns last week and continues to get better. WR Allen Robinson has also made a lot of improvements this season and is the first Jaguars receiver with 1,000 yards receiving since Jimmy Smith in 2005. I really do think the Jaguars will compete next season and build off what they've accomplished in 2015 that'll include a home win over the Colts this Sunday.
KANSAS CITY over San Diego (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): As stated earlier, the Chiefs have a very good chance of winning out and finishing the regular season on a 10-game winning streak. They've found a way to win without Pro Bowl RB Jamaal Charles and I don't think any team wants to play them right now. Good luck to the Chargers at Arrowhead on Sunday.
CHICAGO over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): What baffles my mind is the fact that Redskins RB Alfred Morris has just 494 yards rushing and zero touchdowns this season. Morris ran for 3,962 yards and 28 touchdowns in his first three seasons in the league and I cannot understand why he's not getting the ball. I know Matt Jones has emerged as another weapon at running back, but the offense of the Redskins just doesn't make sense. They played a lousy game Monday night against the Cowboys and now play three of their final four games on the road where they're 0-5. Not a chance I'm taking them in this one as their playoff chances diminish with a loss to the Bears and Jay Gruden's head coaching seat gets warmer.
CAROLINA over Atlanta (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The Panthers were able to get out of New Orleans with a win, but it wasn't easy. Cam Newton lead Carolina to a win behind five touchdown passes and 380 yards of total offense. Atlanta has lost five straight and with the way Carolina is playing I would be surprised if the Falcons pulled the upset here.
Seattle over BALTIMORE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Two games for Matt Schaub at quarterback for the Ravens and four interceptions, including two pick-sixes, in those games. With Joe Flacco and a whole host of other good Ravens players injured, the Ravens offense looks more like a M*A*S*H unit -- terrific television show if you've never seen it. Schaub injured his shoulder and knee last week against Miami and hasn't practiced much this week, which means we could see some Jimmy Clausen on Sunday. Oh boy. The Legion of Boom will be licking their chops in this one. Seahawks win big.
DENVER over Oakland (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): Oakland was a good story for a while, but I think the ship has sailed on the 2015 season. With a few more players on defense and another weapon on offense, Oakland will compete in 2016. As for this season, Denver has played great with Brook Osweiler at quarterback and they'll move to 4-0 in his starts with a win, plus keep pace in the race for a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
GREEN BAY over Dallas (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Hard to believe, but the NFC East is so bad that the 4-8 Dallas Cowboys are only a game out of first place. Now, the Cowboys play the Packers, Jets, Bills and Redskins to finish off the season and don't expect them to win out. Stranger things have happened in the NFL this season, but I would be stunned if the Cowboys won the East or Sunday's game against the Packers for that matter. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay carry the momentum from last week's Hail Mary miracle in Detroit and win a second straight game.
New England over HOUSTON (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): It's unprecedented to see the New England Patriots lose two games in a row, but this is still one of the best teams in the league. Tom Brady might be bringing a group of knives to a gun fight in terms of weapons on offense, but the Patriots will rebound in Houston. The Texans four-game winning streak came to an end last week and they're in a dog fight for the AFC South with the Colts. A win against the Patriots sure would help. I just don't think it will happen. J.J. Watt -- who broke his hand in practice but is still expected to play -- will pressure Brady, but New England does enough to get the win Sunday night.
NY Giants over MIAMI (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): I was listening to Mike and Mike on ESPN radio this week and heard a crazy stat regarding the Giants. In the Giants seven losses this season, if the game had ended with a one minute and 15 seconds left on the clock, New York would be 10-2. Stat of the year, folks. I think the Giants are the best team in the NFC East and have the talent to compete with anyone in the league, but they cannot figure out a way to play for an entire 60 minutes. It's crunch time and the Giants have to beat the Dolphins on Monday night and I think they will.
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 115-77 (.599)
After giving up 90 points in the last two weeks in losses to the Lions and Buccaneers, the Eagles found a way to beat the Patriots in Foxboro.
Yes, New England was without Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis, but they still had Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. The upset by the Eagles is the upset of the year in the NFL and with the Redskins losing on Monday night, the Eagles are still in the pathetic NFC East race.
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| Tom Brady could not tackle the Eagles Malcolm Jenkins on his way to a 99 yard interception return for a touchdown. (Steven Senne/Associated Press) |
IN: Carolina (12-0): clinched the NFC South on Sunday.
WILL BE IN: Arizona (10-2), Green Bay (8-4), Minnesota (8-4): Cardinals are the second best team in the NFC and despite the recent struggles of the Packers and Vikings, both will be playing in January as well.
PROBABLY WILL BE IN: Seattle (7-5): The Seahawks are starting to play like the team that has gone to back-to-back Super Bowls.
IN THE HUNT: Atlanta (6-6), Tampa Bay (6-6), Washington (5-7), Philadelphia (5-7), NY Giants (5-7), Dallas (4-8): Someone has to win the NFC East and it's looking like whoever it is won't have a winning record. As for the Falcons and Buccaneers, they're still in the hunt, but I'd be surprised to see either of them in the playoffs.
Now for the AFC.
JUST ABOUT IN: Cincinnati (10-2), Denver (10-2), New England (10-2): It will be interesting the next four weeks to see who emerges as the number one seed. One of the key games will be in Week 16 when the Bengals travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on Monday Night Football.
WILL BE IN: Kansas City (7-5): Winners of six straight with San Diego, Cleveland, Baltimore and Oakland left on the schedule. The Chiefs could end the season on a 10-game winning streak.
IN THE HUNT: NY Jets (7-5), Pittsburgh (7-5), Buffalo (6-6), Houston (6-6), Indianapolis (6-6): The Texans or Colts will win the AFC South, most likely at 8-8, with the key game being in Week 15 when Houston travels to Indianapolis. As for the other three, my bet is on the Steelers. They have arguably the best offense in football and games against the Ravens and Browns to end the season.
The playoff intensity will only continue to grow as the remaining weeks go on and it should be an exciting race to the finish.
Up next, my picks for Week 14.
Week 14 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
ARIZONA over Minnesota (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL): Potential playoff matchup on Thursday night in Arizona between the Cardinals and Vikings. I was really high on the Vikings going into last week, but the Seahawks just annihilated them at home, 38-7, and RB Adrian Peterson ran for a pitiful 18 yards on eight carries. QB Teddy Bridgewater didn't play well either throwing for only 118 yards and an interception. Things won't get any easier for the Vikings on a short week out in Arizona. The Cardinals are more explosive on offense and arguably have a better defense than the Seahawks. I expect the Cardinals to load the box to stop Peterson and make Bridgewater beat them, which I won't think he will. Carson Palmer leads the Cardinals to another win.
PHILADELPHIA over Buffalo (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): How do you not take the Eagles here? Unless you're a diehard Bills, Cowboys, Giants or Redskins fan, I cannot see how you pick against the Philadelphia Eagles after what they did last week. No one, not even the biggest Eagles fans in Philadelphia gave their team a chance to beat the Patriots in Foxboro last week. Philly had given up 90 points the two weeks prior, but they found a way to score 21 points off a blocked punt, interception return and punt return to beat the Patriots. Bills RB LeSean McCoy will play well in his return to Philadelphia, but I can't pick against the Eagles and the momentum they will have carried over from last week.
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| The dysfunctional Browns and head coach Mike Pettine are switching back to Johnny Manziel at quarterback. (Jason Miller/Getty Images) |
Detroit over ST. LOUIS (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Not picking the Rams anymore in 2015 and sticking to that statement here. QB Nick Foles continues to struggle -- 15/35 for 146 yards and an interception last week -- and has once again lost the starting job to Case Keenum, who passed his concussion tests. I would start rookie Sean Mannion to get him some experience and see what he can do, but that's just me. Don't expect the Lions to lose on a Hail Mary at the end of this one. I think Detroit will win by two scores.
TAMPA BAY over New Orleans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Another 41 points allowed and 497 yards of offense given up for the New Orleans defense resulting in another loss. The Saints are a disaster on defense and to be honest, Drew Brees and the offense could put up 50 and it still may not be enough. Buccaneers beat the Saints for a second time.
NY JETS over Tennessee (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Jets should win this game as long as they contain Titans QB Marcus Mariota. Mariota threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another 112 yards and a score in last week's win against the Jaguars. In wins this season, Mariota has thrown 11 touchdown passes and only one interception. In losses, he's thrown eight touchdowns and eight interceptions. If the Jets can force Mariota to make mistakes and keep him contained, they should win and improve their playoff chances.
CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Big game in the Queen City on Sunday. The Bengals number one ranked scoring defense faces the hottest offense in the league, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati was able to hold Pittsburgh to just 10 points in a win in the Steel City back on November 1st, but QB Ben Roethlisberger was banged up and threw three interceptions. The Bengals will be without their best corner, Adam Jones, on Sunday and that is not good news as the Steelers receivers have run wild the last four games. In those games, the Steelers have scored 143 points and put up 2,116 yards of offense, 35.8 PPG and 529 YPG average. With that being said, however, I like the Bengals here. Cincinnati will get the league's leading touchdown reception leader back in TE Tyler Eifert and the Bengals are 5-1 at home this season, while the Steelers are just 2-3 on the road. It'll be a tough, physical game like the first one and I like the Bengals to clinch the AFC North with a win.
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): I originally wrote Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE, but changed it because I think the Jaguars have improved enough to beat the Colts. Yes, Indianapolis has won 16 straight AFC South games and beat the Jaguars 16-13 already this season, but I'm going with the upset. Jaguars QB Blake Bortles threw for 322 yards and five touchdowns last week and continues to get better. WR Allen Robinson has also made a lot of improvements this season and is the first Jaguars receiver with 1,000 yards receiving since Jimmy Smith in 2005. I really do think the Jaguars will compete next season and build off what they've accomplished in 2015 that'll include a home win over the Colts this Sunday.
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| The Kansas City Chiefs have arguably been the league's hottest team the last seven weeks. (Photo courtesy of KCChiefs.com) |
CHICAGO over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): What baffles my mind is the fact that Redskins RB Alfred Morris has just 494 yards rushing and zero touchdowns this season. Morris ran for 3,962 yards and 28 touchdowns in his first three seasons in the league and I cannot understand why he's not getting the ball. I know Matt Jones has emerged as another weapon at running back, but the offense of the Redskins just doesn't make sense. They played a lousy game Monday night against the Cowboys and now play three of their final four games on the road where they're 0-5. Not a chance I'm taking them in this one as their playoff chances diminish with a loss to the Bears and Jay Gruden's head coaching seat gets warmer.
CAROLINA over Atlanta (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The Panthers were able to get out of New Orleans with a win, but it wasn't easy. Cam Newton lead Carolina to a win behind five touchdown passes and 380 yards of total offense. Atlanta has lost five straight and with the way Carolina is playing I would be surprised if the Falcons pulled the upset here.
Seattle over BALTIMORE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Two games for Matt Schaub at quarterback for the Ravens and four interceptions, including two pick-sixes, in those games. With Joe Flacco and a whole host of other good Ravens players injured, the Ravens offense looks more like a M*A*S*H unit -- terrific television show if you've never seen it. Schaub injured his shoulder and knee last week against Miami and hasn't practiced much this week, which means we could see some Jimmy Clausen on Sunday. Oh boy. The Legion of Boom will be licking their chops in this one. Seahawks win big.
DENVER over Oakland (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): Oakland was a good story for a while, but I think the ship has sailed on the 2015 season. With a few more players on defense and another weapon on offense, Oakland will compete in 2016. As for this season, Denver has played great with Brook Osweiler at quarterback and they'll move to 4-0 in his starts with a win, plus keep pace in the race for a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
GREEN BAY over Dallas (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Hard to believe, but the NFC East is so bad that the 4-8 Dallas Cowboys are only a game out of first place. Now, the Cowboys play the Packers, Jets, Bills and Redskins to finish off the season and don't expect them to win out. Stranger things have happened in the NFL this season, but I would be stunned if the Cowboys won the East or Sunday's game against the Packers for that matter. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay carry the momentum from last week's Hail Mary miracle in Detroit and win a second straight game.
New England over HOUSTON (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): It's unprecedented to see the New England Patriots lose two games in a row, but this is still one of the best teams in the league. Tom Brady might be bringing a group of knives to a gun fight in terms of weapons on offense, but the Patriots will rebound in Houston. The Texans four-game winning streak came to an end last week and they're in a dog fight for the AFC South with the Colts. A win against the Patriots sure would help. I just don't think it will happen. J.J. Watt -- who broke his hand in practice but is still expected to play -- will pressure Brady, but New England does enough to get the win Sunday night.
NY Giants over MIAMI (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): I was listening to Mike and Mike on ESPN radio this week and heard a crazy stat regarding the Giants. In the Giants seven losses this season, if the game had ended with a one minute and 15 seconds left on the clock, New York would be 10-2. Stat of the year, folks. I think the Giants are the best team in the NFC East and have the talent to compete with anyone in the league, but they cannot figure out a way to play for an entire 60 minutes. It's crunch time and the Giants have to beat the Dolphins on Monday night and I think they will.
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 115-77 (.599)
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