NFL 2015: Week 16 Picks

Merry Christmas!

Christmas could come two days late for several teams, but for the first time in NFL history, all 12 playoff spots could be decided by the end of Week 16.

USA TODAY Sports has a terrific breakdown of the NFL playoff scenarios going into Week 16 and is well worth a read. If the season ended today, here's what the playoff picture would look like, also courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

If this is indeed the playoff picture, then we are in for one heck of a January. It could all be sorted out by Tuesday morning, so on to my picks for Week 16.

Week 16 Picks (Home team in CAPS)

OAKLAND over San Diego (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL): With the Chargers possibly playing their last game in San Diego last week, it will be the Raiders turn on Christmas Eve as they play their final game this season from the sewage pit that is O.co Coliseum. It's still up in the air as to whether the Raiders and/or Chargers or even Rams end up in Los Angeles, but my guess is at least two of them will. LA is such a big market and for the NFL not to be there just doesn't make sense. The Rams and Raiders have played in LA before, so it wouldn't be a huge stretch to see both of them back in Hollywood. I'm looking forward to seeing how it all plays out. Even with this game on Christmas Eve, I expect there to be some good ratings, I mean it's the NFL, and a bunch of families get together on December 24th so why not watch football? Oakland has the better team and they'll win on Christmas Eve.

Washington over PHILADELPHIA (Saturday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL): Hard as it is to believe, the NFC East can be clinched on Saturday with a win by the Washington Redskins. I'll admit, I didn't the Redskins at chance at all this season, but they've proved me wrong. QB Kirk Cousins has played very well in his first full season as the quarterback and when he's on, the Redskins simply win. In Washington's seven wins this season, Cousins has thrown for 2,055 yards, 15 TD, 1 INT and a has a QB Rating of 124. Not to mention he's thrown 16 TD, 2 INT and has a QB Rating of 117 at home. If the season ended today Washington would be playing Seattle in a home playoff game, which could be a closer game than people may think. Even with Saturday's game on the road, I like the Redskins chances to close out the division.

New England over NY JETS (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): This is basically a playoff game for the Jets and a loss here may be the only "playoff" game they play this season. If the season ended today, the Jets would lose the tiebreaker to the Steelers based on winning percentage in common games. The Steelers have the Ravens and Browns left on the schedule, while the other team ahead of the Jets, the Chiefs, have the Browns and Raiders left to play. On paper, the Steelers and Chiefs should win out, which is not good news for the Jets and oh by the way, the Patriots are in town this week. New York gave New England a game back in late October, holding a lead in the fourth quarter, but ultimately losing 30-23. I expect another close game on Sunday with the same result, a Patriots win, basically knocking the Jets out of the playoffs.

Brandon Weeden, yes, that Brandon Weeden, could lead the Texans to
the AFC South division crown with a win on Sunday.
(Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle)

Houston over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Houston Texans could win the AFC South this weekend with a win behind quarterback, Brandon Weeden? That's right, for as up and down as the Texans have been this season, not to mention Weeden being the fourth quarterback Houston has used through 14 games, the Houston Texans are almost playoff bound. Brian Hoyer started the season under center, but was quickly pulled in the first game for Ryan Mallet. Mallet had several chances, but poor play and missing a team flight ultimately ended his tenure with the Texans. T.J. Yates was resigned and played in four games until tearing his ACL in Sunday's win at Indianapolis, thus putting former Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden on to the field. I can't ever remember a team win the division despite starting four different players at quarterback, but the Houston Texans will do it on Sunday with a win over the Titans.


KANSAS CITY over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): If I'm the Patriots, Bengals or Broncos, I do not want to play the Chiefs in January. Kansas City has won eight straight and all of the sudden they're just a game behind Denver for the AFC West lead. That should be motivation for the Broncos on Monday night against the Bengals, but as for the Chiefs, they win a ninth straight with a win at home over woeful Cleveland.

Indianapolis over MIAMI (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Say what you want about how bad the Colts are, but the Dolphins are worse. So much is wrong with both of these teams that I don't know where to begin. Both have good young quarterbacks in Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill and both have some skills guys on offense, Lamar Miller and Jarvis Landry for Miami and T.Y. Hilton for Indianapolis, but that's about it. Both teams will be getting new head coaches this offseason as well and good luck to whoever each team brings in because they have their work cut out for them. As for the game, the Dolphins looked awful last week against the Chargers, so I'm going with the Colts.

DETROIT over San Francisco (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): For as bad as the Lions have played this season, they haven't been as bad as the 49ers. Watching the 49ers last week against the Bengals I saw a team with a lot of work to do. San Francisco lost a ton of talent in the offseason, Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith, head coach Jim Harbaugh to name a few, and you just don't replace talent like that over night. It is going to be sometime before the 49ers are good again and it starts with finding a quarterback. Colin Kaepernick will most likely be gone and Blaine Gabbert definitely isn't the answer. The Lions have Matthew Stafford, which is a start, but they have a lot of work left to do as well to return to the playoffs. I think they'll win on Sunday and Detroit, will you please get the ball to Calvin Johnson. I know he's battling an ankle injury, but he has two catches for 35 yards the past two games.

BUFFALO over Dallas (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): What has happened to the Bills defense? They have some talented players on that defense and with Rex Ryan coaching, I thought Buffalo would have a top five defense without blinking. Instead, they are 21st in the league in total yards allowed, 23rd against the pass and are giving up 24.0 PPG. I don't know if it's the coaching scheme, the personnel or key injuries, but the Bills have to play better on defense next year if they are going to catch the Patriots. Dallas will be starting their fourth quarterback this season on Sunday, first Romo, then Brandon Weeden, then Matt Cassel, now Kellen Moore. Even with the Bills struggling on defense, I like their chances against a quarterback who has never started a game in his four year NFL career.

TAMPA BAY over Chicago (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Watch out for the Buccaneers in 2016. They maybe eliminated in 2015, but with a trio of Jameis Winston, Doug Martin and Mike Evans on offense, that's quite the arsenal of weapons. If Tampa can get a few more players on defense, they're currently giving up 25.2 PPG, they could contend in 2016. The Bears are a different story and have to do a lot of work in the offseason to get back into contention. I like the Buccaneers on Sunday.

Carolina over ATLANTA (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Carolina almost let one slip away last week against the Giants, but the Panthers, lead by Cam Newton, got a 43-yard field goal from Graham Gano to remain perfect. The Panthers should be the Falcons on Sunday, but let me just comment on the Odell Beckham/Josh Norman battle last weekend.

The feud between Odell Beckham Jr. and Josh Norman got out of control
Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium.
(AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

Odell was completely out of control and deserves the one game suspension he received on Monday. He's a great player and by all accounts a great guy who made a mistake and let his emotions get the best of him. However, what should not be overlooked by all of this is Josh Norman. He was at fault just as much as Beckham for what he did and said before, during and after the game. In my opinion, both Norman and Beckham should have been ejected from the game Sunday for their actions and this is the second week in a row -- Bengals and Steelers two weeks ago got heated several times -- where the officials failed to take control of the extra circulars and fighting during the game. The league has to do a better job of stopping the fighting, I understand words will be said and game of football is emotional, but hit the guy on the next play and stop throwing punches and hitting each other in the head after the play is over. "C'mon Man!"

Pittsburgh over BALTIMORE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): In the last six games, Steelers WR Antonio Brown has 64 receptions for 868 yards and six touchdowns. Good luck to the Ravens secondary on Sunday in stopping the hottest receiver and passing attack in the league. Steelers keep their playoff hopes alive with a commanding win in Baltimore.

Jacksonville over NEW ORLEANS (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): If your a fantasy owner out there for a DraftKings frequent player, start Jaguars QB Blake Bortles and WR Allen Robinson this week. The Saints have the worse defense in football and Bortles and Pro Bowl snub Allen Robinson -- Robinson has 1,141 yards receiving and leads the league with 13 touchdowns -- are going to light up the New Orleans secondary that gives up big yards on almost every play. Drew Brees and the Saints offense will score points too, but not enough to beat the Jaguars.

SEATTLE over St. LOUIS (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): If you are talking about hottest teams in the league, the Seattle Seahawks may top the list along with the Kansas City Chiefs. No one wants to play Seattle right now. QB Russell Wilson is playing the best football of his young career, which is saying something seeing how he's been to two Super Bowls already. In the last five games -- all Seahawks wins -- Wilson has thrown for 1,420 yards, 19 touchdowns, zero interceptions and has an absurd average QB Rating of 140.1. If there is a team to upset the Panthers in the playoffs, it just might be the Seahawks who want revenge after losing to Carolina back in Week 6.

ARIZONA over Green Bay (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): These two could potential meet again come playoff time, but this should be a great game on Sunday out in the desert. The Packers have been playing much better as of late, scoring at least 27 points in each of their last three games -- one of those was the Hail Mary game against the Lions. With the Vikings at 9-5 and breathing down the Packers neck, a win here should would be nice, I just don't see it happening. Besides maybe Pittsburgh, the Cardinals have the best offense in the league and Green Bay's 22nd ranked rush defense will have their hands full with David Johnson. Johnson has filled in nicely for the injured Chris Johnson, rushing for 378 yards and four total touchdowns in the last three games. Cardinals will put up 30 on the Packers and clinch a first-round bye.

MINNESOTA over NY Giants (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): The Giants will most likely be without Odell Beckham Jr. following his suspension for his actions in last week's game against the Panthers and that's bad news for New York. Beckham is the Giants leading receiver by a country mile and their top playmaker and it's hard for me to pick them to win without their best player. They do have a chance with Vikings RB Adrian Peterson having an ankle injury, but he's expected to play, and with the Giants have the 21st ranked run defense, I'm taking the Vikings here.

Cincinnati over DENVER (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): I'm sure when ESPN scheduled this game back in April they were thinking it would a great a matchup between two playoff teams and a duel between Peyton Manning and Andy Dalton. Well, now none of that may be true. It's AJ McCarron versus Brock Osweiler and if Denver losses their last two games they might be in the playoffs at all. As hard as it is to believe, Denver could end up a Wild Card team and playing a road game in January when just a few weeks ago they were the number one seed. Now, I think Denver will make the playoffs, but a loss to the Bengals on Monday night puts the Chiefs in the driver's seat in the AFC West. Cincinnati has already clinched a playoff spot and are trying to win their final two games to secure the AFC North and a first-round bye in Andy Dalton's absence. I thought McCarron played well last week, but his offensive line and rushing attack -- 36 carries for 68 yards, a 1.9 yard -- last week won't cut it. Denver and Cincinnati have two of the best scoring defenses in the league and points will be hard to come by on Monday night. In the end, I think McCarron will do just enough to get the Bengals a late Christmas gift in a win, a division title and first-round bye.

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 136-88 (.607)