Playoff Picture; Week 14 Picks
Four weeks to go and its crunch time for most of the teams in the league.
The playoffs are a month away and before getting into picks for Week 14, let's look at where teams currently fall in the playoff picture.
Let's start with the obvious, Cleveland, Jacksonville, San Francisco, NY Jets, Chicago and Los Angeles are out. No way they'll make the playoffs.
Carolina, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Diego, New Orleans, and Arizona are barely hanging in there. All of these teams basically need to win out and have lots of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.
Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston are all still alive at 6-6 because they play in the worse division in football, the AFC South. My money is on the Titans come January, but the Texans and Colts aren't done yet.
Green Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Buffalo and Washington are alive, but they need to keep winning and could use some help along the way. Neither of these teams will win their division, in my opinion. Washington won't catch Dallas, Buffalo won't catch the Patriots and I don't see Green Bay or Minnesota catching Detroit. So, if you are a fan of one of these teams, you may not need a Christmas miracle, but you'll need something close to it.
Now, for teams who are most likely going to make the playoffs starting in the AFC.
New England and Oakland will be in and, in my opinion, be the two teams who receive byes. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are atop the AFC North, while Denver and Kansas City are currently holding down the two wild card spots. In the end, I see the Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Titans, Chiefs and Broncos making the playoffs out the AFC.
As for the NFC, Dallas is already in. Seattle should win the West, Detroit should win the North and I like Atlanta to win the South. Tampa Bay could sneak in the wild card or even overtake Atlanta for the South crown. The Giants are the final team in the mix at 8-4 and they should be in come January. I see the six teams I just mentioned representing the NFC in the playoffs. It wouldn't shock me if someone like the Vikings, Packers, or Redskins get hot and just make it in, but I don't see it happening.
So, there you have it, the 12 teams that'll make the playoffs. Why even play the next four weeks? Start the playoffs now and save us the trouble of watching Jets-49ers this weekend.
Anyway, on to my picks for this week's slate of games.
Week 14 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
KANSAS CITY over Oakland (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFLN, Twitter): Finally, a competitive Thursday night game might be in store this week. I'm not a huge fan of the TNF. The games aren't very good, the play is poor, lots of penalties, just not enjoyable football to watch. This week, however, the Raiders are 10-2 and travel to Arrowhead to face the 9-3 Chiefs. Winner of this game will have sole position of first place in the AFC West and could be on their way to a first round bye as well. With this being a Thursday night and the Chiefs being the home team, I think Kansas City will get the win.
Pittsburgh over BUFFALO (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Buffalo is mathematically still alive in the AFC playoff picture, but at 6-6, another loss will basically end their playoff hopes. Pittsburgh on the other hand is right in the thick of the AFC North race with Baltimore and when the season is over I expect it to be the Steelers, not the Ravens, as the division champs. With that being said, I like the Steelers to defeat the Bills in a close one on Sunday.
Cincinnati over CLEVELAND (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Bengals offense did not miss a beat last week against the Eagles and that's encouraging seeing how they're without their best player, WR A.J. Green. The Browns also did well last week, they didn't lose for the first time in 12 weeks, because they were on a bye. Robert Griffin III is back from an injury that has had sidelined since Week 1 and will get the start at quarterback. In a season where the Browns have seen seven players throw a pass, the Browns need to find stability at the QB position. With Griffin's injury history, I don't see it happening and I expect him to be rusty in his first start in three months. Bengals get the win.
Denver over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Tennessee needs a win here to keep pace with the Texans and Colts in the AFC South. With Houston and Indianapolis playing each other this week, one of them will jump ahead in the division. The Titans have a tough road with games against the Broncos and Chiefs the next two weeks and an upset of the Broncos this weekend would sure help them out. I just don't see it happening though.
Washington over PHILADELPHIA (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): If you watched the Eagles-Bengals game last week, name me one thing you thought the Eagles did well in that football game. I can't think of any. They gave up 32 points to a Bengals team that did not have A.J. Green or Giovani Bernard. If they can't stop the Bengals, then I don't see them stopping the Redskins either, even with this being a home game.
MIAMI over Arizona (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I know the Dolphins laid an egg in Baltimore last week, ending their winning streak, but I think they'll turn things around on Sunday. Miami is 5-1 at home this season and Arizona comes in winning just one of their last three games and they're 1-4 on the road this season. Both teams need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and I think the team that stays alive will be the Dolphins.
Minnesota over JACKSONVILLE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The Jaguars are 2-10 and have lost seven straight. QB Blake Bortles continues to turn the ball over, his 15 INT are the most in the league, and the only thing to watch in Jacksonville is if and when head coach Gus Bradley gets fired. The Vikings are coming off back-to-back losses and have lost six of their last seven games. They desperately need a win to try and stay alive in the NFC playoff race and I think they'll get one on Sunday.
INDIANAPOLIS over Houston (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): I was considering taking the Texans in this one seeing how they beat the Colts in overtime the first time these two teams played, but I changed my mind when I saw this. Houston is just 1-5 on the road this season. Not to mention QB Brock Osweiler has thrown 3 TD and 4 INT in the Texans last three games, all losses. The poor play on the road for the Texans combined with the mediocre at best play from their quarterback this entire season, I like the Colts.
CAROLINA over San Diego (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I have yet to figure both of these teams out this season. It seems like every time I pick one of these two to win, they lose. Carolina looked awful out in Seattle last week and the Chargers blew a fourth quarter lead and lost to the Buccaneers. I'm going with the Panthers in this one just because they're at home and the Chargers are flying to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. kickoff. The Panthers defense has to play better though if they're to win. They've given up 75 points in the last two games.
DETROIT over Chicago (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The Bears figured out a way to score 26 points in a snow storm last week in Chicago, but it was against the 49ers. The Lions are a much better team and behind MVP candidate QB Matthew Stafford, I think they'll get the win at home. Keep on eye an Bears RB Jordan Howard though. The rookie out of Indiana has had a great first season rushing for 883-yards and 5 TD. He has been the lone bright spot in the Bears dreadful 2016 season.
SAN FRANCISCO over NY Jets (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): Talk about a game that doesn't matter, or does it? In the grand scheme of things, this is a meaningless game, but with the Jets and 49ers being so bad, this game could affect the draft order come May. The draft is a long way from now, but I'm actually going to take the 49ers here. The Jets were so bad on Monday night and they're going with second year QB Bryce Petty for possibly the rest of the season. Good move by the Jets, might as well see if Petty is any good, but I expect him to struggle against the 49ers. San Francisco gets the win to end their 11-game losing streak.
TAMPA BAY over New Orleans (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): With the way the schedule worked out, the Buccaneers and Saints will play on Sunday and then again 13 days later on Christmas Eve. Seems weird to have two games against an opponent in that short a time frame, but anyway, I like the Buccaneers on Sunday. Tampa Bay has won four straight games and two of those wins came against the Chiefs and Seahawks. The Saints looked awful last week and with the Buccaneers clicking right now, I think they'll win.
Atlanta over LOS ANGELES (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Things have cooled off for the Atlanta Falcons the past few weeks and they now find themselves tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the division lead at 7-5. Things will turn around for them in Los Angeles this Sunday. The Rams had been playing pretty well, but they've given up 75 points in the last two games, both losses. I look for Atlanta to put up some points and get the win.
Seattle over GREEN BAY (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): The loss of safety Earl Thomas, possibly forever as he considers retirement after breaking his leg, will hurt the Seattle defense. They're still one of the best defenses in the league though and with the Packers having almost zero running game, it'll put more pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers. I think the Seattle defense, even without Thomas, will be too much for the Packers to overcome.
Dallas over NY GIANTS (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): The Cowboys are riding an 11-game winning streak and the only team to beat them this year was the New York Giants. This is a different Cowboys team now though, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott aren't rookies anymore for all intent and purposes. The Cowboys are best team in the NFC and probably all of football and I think they'll avenge their loss to the Giants on Sunday night. This game should be huge for TV ratings as well.
NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Baltimore may have blown out one of the hottest teams in football last week, the Miami Dolphins, but I don't like their chances Monday night in Foxborough. The Patriots are arguably the best team in the league and although the Ravens defense has been one of the best in the league, I think Tom Brady will make enough plays to get the win.
Last Week: 11-4
Overall: 119-73
The playoffs are a month away and before getting into picks for Week 14, let's look at where teams currently fall in the playoff picture.
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| The teams with a red X are those who have zero chance of playing in Super Bowl LI. |
Carolina, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, San Diego, New Orleans, and Arizona are barely hanging in there. All of these teams basically need to win out and have lots of help to have any chance of making the playoffs.
Tennessee, Indianapolis and Houston are all still alive at 6-6 because they play in the worse division in football, the AFC South. My money is on the Titans come January, but the Texans and Colts aren't done yet.
Green Bay, Minnesota, Miami, Buffalo and Washington are alive, but they need to keep winning and could use some help along the way. Neither of these teams will win their division, in my opinion. Washington won't catch Dallas, Buffalo won't catch the Patriots and I don't see Green Bay or Minnesota catching Detroit. So, if you are a fan of one of these teams, you may not need a Christmas miracle, but you'll need something close to it.
Now, for teams who are most likely going to make the playoffs starting in the AFC.
New England and Oakland will be in and, in my opinion, be the two teams who receive byes. Pittsburgh and Baltimore are atop the AFC North, while Denver and Kansas City are currently holding down the two wild card spots. In the end, I see the Patriots, Raiders, Steelers, Titans, Chiefs and Broncos making the playoffs out the AFC.
As for the NFC, Dallas is already in. Seattle should win the West, Detroit should win the North and I like Atlanta to win the South. Tampa Bay could sneak in the wild card or even overtake Atlanta for the South crown. The Giants are the final team in the mix at 8-4 and they should be in come January. I see the six teams I just mentioned representing the NFC in the playoffs. It wouldn't shock me if someone like the Vikings, Packers, or Redskins get hot and just make it in, but I don't see it happening.
So, there you have it, the 12 teams that'll make the playoffs. Why even play the next four weeks? Start the playoffs now and save us the trouble of watching Jets-49ers this weekend.
Anyway, on to my picks for this week's slate of games.
Week 14 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
KANSAS CITY over Oakland (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFLN, Twitter): Finally, a competitive Thursday night game might be in store this week. I'm not a huge fan of the TNF. The games aren't very good, the play is poor, lots of penalties, just not enjoyable football to watch. This week, however, the Raiders are 10-2 and travel to Arrowhead to face the 9-3 Chiefs. Winner of this game will have sole position of first place in the AFC West and could be on their way to a first round bye as well. With this being a Thursday night and the Chiefs being the home team, I think Kansas City will get the win.
Pittsburgh over BUFFALO (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Buffalo is mathematically still alive in the AFC playoff picture, but at 6-6, another loss will basically end their playoff hopes. Pittsburgh on the other hand is right in the thick of the AFC North race with Baltimore and when the season is over I expect it to be the Steelers, not the Ravens, as the division champs. With that being said, I like the Steelers to defeat the Bills in a close one on Sunday.
Cincinnati over CLEVELAND (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): The Bengals offense did not miss a beat last week against the Eagles and that's encouraging seeing how they're without their best player, WR A.J. Green. The Browns also did well last week, they didn't lose for the first time in 12 weeks, because they were on a bye. Robert Griffin III is back from an injury that has had sidelined since Week 1 and will get the start at quarterback. In a season where the Browns have seen seven players throw a pass, the Browns need to find stability at the QB position. With Griffin's injury history, I don't see it happening and I expect him to be rusty in his first start in three months. Bengals get the win.
Denver over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Tennessee needs a win here to keep pace with the Texans and Colts in the AFC South. With Houston and Indianapolis playing each other this week, one of them will jump ahead in the division. The Titans have a tough road with games against the Broncos and Chiefs the next two weeks and an upset of the Broncos this weekend would sure help them out. I just don't see it happening though.
Washington over PHILADELPHIA (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): If you watched the Eagles-Bengals game last week, name me one thing you thought the Eagles did well in that football game. I can't think of any. They gave up 32 points to a Bengals team that did not have A.J. Green or Giovani Bernard. If they can't stop the Bengals, then I don't see them stopping the Redskins either, even with this being a home game.
MIAMI over Arizona (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I know the Dolphins laid an egg in Baltimore last week, ending their winning streak, but I think they'll turn things around on Sunday. Miami is 5-1 at home this season and Arizona comes in winning just one of their last three games and they're 1-4 on the road this season. Both teams need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive and I think the team that stays alive will be the Dolphins.
Minnesota over JACKSONVILLE (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The Jaguars are 2-10 and have lost seven straight. QB Blake Bortles continues to turn the ball over, his 15 INT are the most in the league, and the only thing to watch in Jacksonville is if and when head coach Gus Bradley gets fired. The Vikings are coming off back-to-back losses and have lost six of their last seven games. They desperately need a win to try and stay alive in the NFC playoff race and I think they'll get one on Sunday.
INDIANAPOLIS over Houston (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): I was considering taking the Texans in this one seeing how they beat the Colts in overtime the first time these two teams played, but I changed my mind when I saw this. Houston is just 1-5 on the road this season. Not to mention QB Brock Osweiler has thrown 3 TD and 4 INT in the Texans last three games, all losses. The poor play on the road for the Texans combined with the mediocre at best play from their quarterback this entire season, I like the Colts.
CAROLINA over San Diego (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I have yet to figure both of these teams out this season. It seems like every time I pick one of these two to win, they lose. Carolina looked awful out in Seattle last week and the Chargers blew a fourth quarter lead and lost to the Buccaneers. I'm going with the Panthers in this one just because they're at home and the Chargers are flying to the East Coast for a 1 p.m. kickoff. The Panthers defense has to play better though if they're to win. They've given up 75 points in the last two games.
DETROIT over Chicago (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The Bears figured out a way to score 26 points in a snow storm last week in Chicago, but it was against the 49ers. The Lions are a much better team and behind MVP candidate QB Matthew Stafford, I think they'll get the win at home. Keep on eye an Bears RB Jordan Howard though. The rookie out of Indiana has had a great first season rushing for 883-yards and 5 TD. He has been the lone bright spot in the Bears dreadful 2016 season.
SAN FRANCISCO over NY Jets (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): Talk about a game that doesn't matter, or does it? In the grand scheme of things, this is a meaningless game, but with the Jets and 49ers being so bad, this game could affect the draft order come May. The draft is a long way from now, but I'm actually going to take the 49ers here. The Jets were so bad on Monday night and they're going with second year QB Bryce Petty for possibly the rest of the season. Good move by the Jets, might as well see if Petty is any good, but I expect him to struggle against the 49ers. San Francisco gets the win to end their 11-game losing streak.
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| QB Jameis Winston and WR Mike Evans have the Buccaneers in great position to make the playoffs with four games to go. (Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports) |
Atlanta over LOS ANGELES (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Things have cooled off for the Atlanta Falcons the past few weeks and they now find themselves tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the division lead at 7-5. Things will turn around for them in Los Angeles this Sunday. The Rams had been playing pretty well, but they've given up 75 points in the last two games, both losses. I look for Atlanta to put up some points and get the win.
Seattle over GREEN BAY (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): The loss of safety Earl Thomas, possibly forever as he considers retirement after breaking his leg, will hurt the Seattle defense. They're still one of the best defenses in the league though and with the Packers having almost zero running game, it'll put more pressure on QB Aaron Rodgers. I think the Seattle defense, even without Thomas, will be too much for the Packers to overcome.
Dallas over NY GIANTS (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): The Cowboys are riding an 11-game winning streak and the only team to beat them this year was the New York Giants. This is a different Cowboys team now though, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott aren't rookies anymore for all intent and purposes. The Cowboys are best team in the NFC and probably all of football and I think they'll avenge their loss to the Giants on Sunday night. This game should be huge for TV ratings as well.
NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Baltimore may have blown out one of the hottest teams in football last week, the Miami Dolphins, but I don't like their chances Monday night in Foxborough. The Patriots are arguably the best team in the league and although the Ravens defense has been one of the best in the league, I think Tom Brady will make enough plays to get the win.
Last Week: 11-4
Overall: 119-73
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