NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Picks
What a weekend of football we just had and another one is on the way.
Aside from the Patriots doing what they do best, and that is winning at home in convincing fashion, we had three terrific football games in the Divisional Round -- never been a fan of that name -- including one for the ages.
Two things stand out to me as we look to the Conference Championships this weekend, first, the quarterbacks, and second, the defense's.
Every year during the draft you hear how you need an elite quarterback to have any chance at winning the Super Bowl. Well, apparently not, not this year at least.
There is a real possibility that after what transpired in the Divisional Round that we could see a Blake Bortles vs. Case Keenum or Blake Bortles vs. Nick Foles Super Bowl in two weeks and that just blows my mind.
To put in perspective just how unique this quarterback final four is, Tom Brady has 35 career postseason starts with a 26-9 record. Foles, Bortles and Keenum are a combined 4-1. I mean Brady has more Super Bowl wins (5) than Foles, Bortles and Keenum have combined playoff wins (4)!
Don't overlook what these "other guys" have been able to accomplish to get within one game of the Super Bowl. Keenum has played like an MVP this season, while Foles and Bortles overcame the "game manager" status and have done what they needed to do to get their teams to this point. Neither of them are nor ever will be Brady, but they do deserve some credit for their teams being where they are.
But let's not forget why else these teams are one win away from the Super Bowl. Defense.
As I wrote back in my prediction for last year's Super Bowl, I thought the Patriots would win last year not because of Tom Brady -- okay in addition to Brady -- but because they had a better defense than the Falcons going into that game. Now, the Patriots did give up 28 points and 344-yards of offense, but they held the Falcons to zero points over the final 23 minutes and forced a key fumble that setup a Tom Brady touchdown pass that cut the lead to 28-20. If the Patriots defense doesn't play well in the second half, Brady doesn't get a fifth Super Bowl ring. It's that simple.
There have been so many Super Bowls won with defense and if either the Jaguars, Vikings or Eagles are to dethrone Tom Brady and the Patriots they'll do it with their defenses. And all three defenses are really good too by the way.
During the regular season the Minnesota Vikings were 1st in total defense (275.9 yds/game), 1st in points allowed (15.8/game), 2nd in pass defense (169.9 yds/game), and 2nd in rush defense (83.6 yds/game). The Jacksonville Jaguars were 1st against the pass (169.9 yds/game), 2nd in total defense (286.1 yds/game), and 2nd in points allowed (16.8/game). They also led the league with five defensive touchdowns. The Philadelphia Eagles was in the top five in most of those categories as well, finishing 4th in total defense (306.5 yds/game), 4th in points allowed (18.4/game), and 1st against the run (79.2 yds/game).
Let's not forget the New England Patriots either who despite giving up 366 yds/game (29th in the league), they finished 5th in points allowed (18.5/game). That bend, but don't break defense has worked and is one of the contributing factors into defensive coordinator Matt Patricia reportedly getting the Detroit Lions head coaching job.
In my humble opinion, two of these defenses, in particular, could go down as one of the all-time greats if they win the Super Bowl, and those two defenses would be the Minnesota Vikings and the Jacksonville Jaguars. But will either of those teams even get to Super Bowl LII? My Conference Championship predictions are next.
Conference Championship Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Jacksonville over NEW ENGLAND
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
It's going to happen. Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars will defeat Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, in Foxborough, and advance to Super Bowl LII. There's a sentence I thought I would never write.
If indeed the Jaguars are to pull the upset they have to do two things. First, run the football. Jacksonville led the league in rushing and New England was 20th in stopping it. It's obvious, but keeping Tom Brady on the sidelines only increases your chances of winning the game. The Chiefs, Panthers, and Dolphins -- the only teams to beat the Patriots this season -- all ran the ball at least 27 times and rushed for at least 120-yards.
Second, the Jaguars defense has to get pressure on Brady. In the Patriots three losses this season, Brady was sacked a total of eight times and was hit a total of 20 times. If he stands back there has all day to throw, as good as the Jacksonville secondary is they can't cover Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski and Co. forever. The Jaguars only had two sacks for seven yards against the Steelers and Big Ben threw for 469-yards and 5 TD against them. Get pressure on Brady, get the lead, run the ball to kill the clock -- something the Atlanta Falcons failed to do in Super Bowl LI -- and maybe, just maybe, the Jaguars advance to the Super Bowl. It's so unfathomable to imagine Blake Bortles in the Super Bowl that I think it'll happen.
Minnesota over PHILADELPHIA
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET (Fox)
Hard to imagine a better ending than what Vikings fans are calling the "Minneapolis Miracle." The Vikings walked off on the Saints last week as WR Stefon Diggs caught a 61-yard TD pass from QB Case Keenum to send the Vikings to Philadelphia. Minnesota is now just one win away from becoming the first team to host a Super Bowl and I think they'll make history on Sunday.
The Eagles have a great team. Terrific defense, solid running game, and QB Nick Foles played well enough to get his team to the NFC Championship with Carson Wentz watching from the sidelines. I just think the Vikings have something special going this season. To win a game like that against New Orleans and now with a chance to host the Super Bowl, I expect the Vikings to have plenty of momentum and motivation to play well. Look for their defense to have one of their best games of the season. It'll be a low scoring game and I look for the Vikings to prevail. The Skol chant is going to be rocking U.S. Bank Stadium on Super Bowl Sunday.
There you have it. Super Bowl LII featuring the Jacksonville Jaguars going up against the "home" team Minnesota Vikings with Blake Bortles and Case Keenum starting at quarterback. The most unlikely Super Bowl matchup of all-time without a doubt.
Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 4-4
Overall: 168-96 (.636)
Aside from the Patriots doing what they do best, and that is winning at home in convincing fashion, we had three terrific football games in the Divisional Round -- never been a fan of that name -- including one for the ages.
Two things stand out to me as we look to the Conference Championships this weekend, first, the quarterbacks, and second, the defense's.
Every year during the draft you hear how you need an elite quarterback to have any chance at winning the Super Bowl. Well, apparently not, not this year at least.
There is a real possibility that after what transpired in the Divisional Round that we could see a Blake Bortles vs. Case Keenum or Blake Bortles vs. Nick Foles Super Bowl in two weeks and that just blows my mind.
 |
| That pretty much sums it up. (Image Courtesy of @CBSSports Twitter account) |
Don't overlook what these "other guys" have been able to accomplish to get within one game of the Super Bowl. Keenum has played like an MVP this season, while Foles and Bortles overcame the "game manager" status and have done what they needed to do to get their teams to this point. Neither of them are nor ever will be Brady, but they do deserve some credit for their teams being where they are.
But let's not forget why else these teams are one win away from the Super Bowl. Defense.
As I wrote back in my prediction for last year's Super Bowl, I thought the Patriots would win last year not because of Tom Brady -- okay in addition to Brady -- but because they had a better defense than the Falcons going into that game. Now, the Patriots did give up 28 points and 344-yards of offense, but they held the Falcons to zero points over the final 23 minutes and forced a key fumble that setup a Tom Brady touchdown pass that cut the lead to 28-20. If the Patriots defense doesn't play well in the second half, Brady doesn't get a fifth Super Bowl ring. It's that simple.
There have been so many Super Bowls won with defense and if either the Jaguars, Vikings or Eagles are to dethrone Tom Brady and the Patriots they'll do it with their defenses. And all three defenses are really good too by the way.
During the regular season the Minnesota Vikings were 1st in total defense (275.9 yds/game), 1st in points allowed (15.8/game), 2nd in pass defense (169.9 yds/game), and 2nd in rush defense (83.6 yds/game). The Jacksonville Jaguars were 1st against the pass (169.9 yds/game), 2nd in total defense (286.1 yds/game), and 2nd in points allowed (16.8/game). They also led the league with five defensive touchdowns. The Philadelphia Eagles was in the top five in most of those categories as well, finishing 4th in total defense (306.5 yds/game), 4th in points allowed (18.4/game), and 1st against the run (79.2 yds/game).
Let's not forget the New England Patriots either who despite giving up 366 yds/game (29th in the league), they finished 5th in points allowed (18.5/game). That bend, but don't break defense has worked and is one of the contributing factors into defensive coordinator Matt Patricia reportedly getting the Detroit Lions head coaching job.
In my humble opinion, two of these defenses, in particular, could go down as one of the all-time greats if they win the Super Bowl, and those two defenses would be the Minnesota Vikings and the Jacksonville Jaguars. But will either of those teams even get to Super Bowl LII? My Conference Championship predictions are next.
Conference Championship Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Jacksonville over NEW ENGLAND
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
It's going to happen. Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars will defeat Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, in Foxborough, and advance to Super Bowl LII. There's a sentence I thought I would never write.
If indeed the Jaguars are to pull the upset they have to do two things. First, run the football. Jacksonville led the league in rushing and New England was 20th in stopping it. It's obvious, but keeping Tom Brady on the sidelines only increases your chances of winning the game. The Chiefs, Panthers, and Dolphins -- the only teams to beat the Patriots this season -- all ran the ball at least 27 times and rushed for at least 120-yards.
Second, the Jaguars defense has to get pressure on Brady. In the Patriots three losses this season, Brady was sacked a total of eight times and was hit a total of 20 times. If he stands back there has all day to throw, as good as the Jacksonville secondary is they can't cover Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski and Co. forever. The Jaguars only had two sacks for seven yards against the Steelers and Big Ben threw for 469-yards and 5 TD against them. Get pressure on Brady, get the lead, run the ball to kill the clock -- something the Atlanta Falcons failed to do in Super Bowl LI -- and maybe, just maybe, the Jaguars advance to the Super Bowl. It's so unfathomable to imagine Blake Bortles in the Super Bowl that I think it'll happen.
 |
| The "Minneapolis Miracle." What was Saints safety Marcus Williams thinking? (Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) |
Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET (Fox)
Hard to imagine a better ending than what Vikings fans are calling the "Minneapolis Miracle." The Vikings walked off on the Saints last week as WR Stefon Diggs caught a 61-yard TD pass from QB Case Keenum to send the Vikings to Philadelphia. Minnesota is now just one win away from becoming the first team to host a Super Bowl and I think they'll make history on Sunday.
The Eagles have a great team. Terrific defense, solid running game, and QB Nick Foles played well enough to get his team to the NFC Championship with Carson Wentz watching from the sidelines. I just think the Vikings have something special going this season. To win a game like that against New Orleans and now with a chance to host the Super Bowl, I expect the Vikings to have plenty of momentum and motivation to play well. Look for their defense to have one of their best games of the season. It'll be a low scoring game and I look for the Vikings to prevail. The Skol chant is going to be rocking U.S. Bank Stadium on Super Bowl Sunday.
There you have it. Super Bowl LII featuring the Jacksonville Jaguars going up against the "home" team Minnesota Vikings with Blake Bortles and Case Keenum starting at quarterback. The most unlikely Super Bowl matchup of all-time without a doubt.
Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 4-4
Overall: 168-96 (.636)
Comments
Post a Comment