Playoff Picture; Week 13 Picks
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| A look at who still has a chance to play for Super Bowl LII. I'll update this image each week as teams get eliminated from playoff contention. (Image courtesy of NFLRush.com) |
In the image on the right, I've taken the liberty of putting red over the logos of those teams who will be looking towards the draft in January, not the playoffs.
Starting in the NFC, San Francisco, Chicago, Tampa Bay and the New York Giants are out. Thanks for playing.
You could argue that all the 5-6 teams, Washington, Dallas, Green Bay, and Arizona are also out, but with five games left to play they still have a slim chance.
New Orleans, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia and the L.A. Rams look like locks to make the playoffs as each of them has at least eight wins. Atlanta and Seattle are right there at 7-4 and Detroit is still in the picture at 6-5. The NFC is really good this year, someone may end up 10-6 and miss the playoffs, which almost never happens. Whatever does happen it'll be nice to see some new teams in the playoffs in the NFC. Nothing against the Cowboys, Giants and Packers, but seeing some new teams in the playoffs will be nice.
On to the AFC where we have a lot more teams already out of contention.
No surprise that Cleveland leads the way at 0-11, followed by Denver, Indianapolis, Houston, Miami, and the New York Jets -- bad football season in the Big Apple -- who are out of the playoff picture. A lot of people had either or both Miami and Houston making the playoffs. The Dolphins have struggled with Jay Cutler at quarterback and injuries have really hurt the Texans. The Broncos are a mess too. They went from winning the Super Bowl to now looking like a team that needs to rebuild in two years. They need a quarterback and you can bet John Elway will find them one this offseason. Eli Manning, perhaps?
As for the teams still in the playoff picture, New England and Pittsburgh are locks and will probably face each other in the AFC Championship game. Kansas City, despite their recent struggles, still lead the West, but Oakland and L.A. are right on their heels. Baltimore, Buffalo, and Cincinnati are still alive in the Wild Card race, Bengals by the slimmest of margins, and Tennessee and Jacksonville are neck and neck in the South. I think whoever doesn't win the South, which I think will be Titans, will still make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
There you go, all caught up.
It'll be interesting to see how the playoff picture unfolds over the coming weeks and I'd imagine that we'll have some teams eliminate themselves this week. On to picks for Week 13.
Week 13 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Washington (5-6) over DALLAS (5-6)
Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NBC, NFL Network, Amazon Prime)
In the three games RB Ezekiel Elliott has missed due to his suspension, the Cowboys have managed to score just 22 points and have lost all three games. QB Dak Prescott has also struggled without Elliott throwing 0 TD and 5 INT during the losing streak. With Elliott still suspended and the Cowboys best player on defense, LB Sean Lee, likely out for a third-straight game, I like the Redskins to keep their slim playoff hopes alive with a win. Dallas's playoff hopes meanwhile end Thursday night.
Minnesota (9-2) over ATLANTA (7-4)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
Atlanta has finally found their offense from last season having scored 95 points (31.5 points/game) the last three weeks, all wins. If Atlanta can keep putting up those kind of points they're going to make the playoffs. They have a tough schedule the rest of the season though as they face a top 5 defense in Minnesota on Sunday followed by New Orleans twice and Carolina in Week 17. It may take 10 wins to get into the Wild Card in the NFC, so the Falcons can't afford many slip ups. QB Case Keenum has been playing really well for the Vikings and with that top 5 defense I like the Vikings on Sunday in Atlanta.
New England (9-2) over BUFFALO (6-5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bills never should have benched QB Tyrod Taylor. That loss out in L.A. to the Chargers could be the difference in them making the playoffs, but either way I still don't think we'll see Buffalo playing football in January. This is the first of two meetings with the Patriots over the next five weeks. In fact the Bills only play three teams the rest of the season, New England twice, Miami twice and Indianapolis. Sunday will be the first of two losses to Tom Brady and the Patriots this season.
CHICAGO (3-8) over San Francisco (1-10)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Jimmy Garoppolo will get his first start for the 49ers on Sunday as he takes over for C.J. Beathard who left last week's game against the Seahawks with an injury. I would bet that Garoppolo will start the rest of the season and that should give us some idea on what he's capable of. Now, the 49ers are still a bad team, they don't have many weapons, and they've yet to win a game on the road this season. I'm going with the Bears in what could be an ugly game. I'll be curious to see how not only Garoppolo plays, but Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky as well. Trubisky had been improving, but last week he was 17 of 33 for 147-yards and 2 INT. It was against a very good Eagles team, but Trubisky needs to keep taking steps forward and last week was definitely a step back.
GREEN BAY (5-6) over Tampa Bay (4-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
It's looking like the Wild Card teams in the NFC will have to be at least 9-7 if not 10-6, so the Packers have to play just about perfect football the rest of the way to get in. That won't be easy with QB Aaron Rodgers still out, but Green Bay does have two very winnable games the next two weeks. They get a bad Buccaneers team at home this week and then go to the Browns next week. Then Week 15 against the Panthers is when Rodgers is eligible to come off injured reserve. If he's healthy and the Packers are still in the hunt he could come back, and just maybe the Packers can win out and make the playoffs. One game at a time though and Green Bay will get the win on Sunday.
TENNESSEE (7-4) over Houston (4-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Since QB Tom Savage took over for the injured Deshaun Watson in Houston, he's 81 for 149 (54.4%) with 4 TD, 5 INT, 8 fumbles and a QB Rating of 69.1 in four games. The Texans are 1-3 in those games. I'd start T.J. Yates if I'm Bill O'Brien this week or dare I mention it again, sign Colin Kaepernick. Savage is not an NFL quarterback, but no matter who starts with all the injuries the Texans have they won't beat the Titans 57-14 like they did the last time these two teams met and won't win the game period.
Denver (3-8) over MIAMI (4-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
Not a great game down in South Beach on Sunday. The Broncos have lost seven-straight and the Dolphins have lost five-straight. Denver will once again go back to Trevor Siemian at quarterback with Paxton Lynch getting hurt in last week's game against the Raiders and Brock Osweiler looking terrible in his three starts this season. Both teams have been so bad it's hard to pick a winner in this one. Maybe Siemian will play better after riding the bench for a few weeks. I'll go with the Broncos.
Kansas City (6-5) over N.Y. JETS (4-7)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Chiefs are 1-5 in their last six games and have not looked good in most of those games. I think they're going to turn things around though and use a very favorable remaining schedule, at Jets, vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, vs. Dolphins, and at Broncos to win enough games to clinch the AFC West. The Jets are a lot better than people thought they would be, so Kansas City better come ready to play or they'll lose yet again.
JACKSONVILLE (7-4) over Indianapolis (3-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Jacksonville missed an opportunity to keep a one game lead on Tennessee in the division with their loss out in the desert to Arizona, but they'll turn things around against Indianapolis. They better not look past the Colts to next week when the Seahawks come to town or Jacoby Brissett just might upset the Jaguars at home.
Detroit (6-5) over BALTIMORE (6-5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
The only reason the Baltimore Ravens currently hold the final Wild Card spot in the AFC is because of their defense. QB Joe Flacco has been mediocre at best and the lack of firepower on the Ravens offense is the reason why they rank dead last in passing at just 164.3 yards/game. Detroit is 4-1 on the road this season and they can pass the ball with the 10th best passing attack in the league at 255.6 yards/game. The Ravens offense won't score enough points to win this one, but Baltimore could still make the playoffs with an easy schedule down the stretch. After the Lions at home this week and at the Steelers next week, the Ravens finish the season at Browns, and home games against the Colts and Bengals. They could get to 9-7, which just might be good enough to make the playoffs.
L.A. CHARGERS (5-6) over Cleveland (0-11)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
After starting the season 0-4, the L.A. Chargers have won five of their last seven games and now find themselves just a game back in the AFC West. With as poorly as the Chiefs have been playing the Chargers could still win the division. They'll stay hot and get to .500 with a win over the Browns on Sunday.
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| Eli Manning, who won two Super Bowls for the Giants, may have played his last game in New York. (Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) |
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
QB Eli Manning's streak of starting 210 consecutive games, the second-longest streak by a quarterback in NFL history, will end on Sunday out in Oakland. The Giants with their season all but over, have decided to give backups Geno Smith and rookie Davis Webb an opportunity to show what they can do. Manning was given the chance to start to keep his streak alive, but he declined. If the Giants were starting rookie Davis Webb to see if he's any good, because he just might be the future at quarterback in New York, I would get that to an extent, but why head coach Ben McAdoo is starting Geno Smith makes no sense. Eli Manning gives you the best chance to win even though the Giants are going nowhere. Benching Eli for Geno Smith is a slap in the face and McAdoo has no idea what he's doing. Fire him now. We've seen Geno Smith play and it's hasn't been pretty. Eli might have played his last game in a Giants uniform and I wouldn't blame him for wanting to leave this offseason. Maybe a reunion with Tom Coughlin in Jacksonville or follow his brother's footsteps and head to Denver? We'll see, but I'm picking the Raiders in this one with Eli not playing.
NEW ORLEANS (8-3) over Carolina (8-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
New Orleans beat Carolina once already this season and this game is in New Orleans, so I'm going with the Saints. Despite the loss to a very good Rams team last week, the Saints have been playing great football. The defense has been solid and rookie RB Alvin Kamara has been sensational putting up 1,094-yards from scrimmage and 9 TD in his first 11 games. The Panthers have the second best defense in the league in terms of yards allowed per game at 288.3, so the Saints may have trouble moving the ball, but they put up 362-yards and 34 points on the Panthers back in Week 3. Saints are a much better team than they were then and I think it'll be a close game on Sunday afternoon.
L.A. Rams (8-3) over ARIZONA (5-6)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Huge win for the Rams last Sunday against the Saints and I'd love to see both of those two teams meet again in the playoffs. Arizona will not be an easy test for the Rams as they upset the Jaguars last week. Arizona is still without Carson Palmer and although Blaine Gabbert has played quite well I like the Rams to get the win and clinch a winning season for the first time since 2003.
Philadelphia (10-1) over SEATTLE (7-4)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
We could see this matchup again in January, but for Sunday night I like the Eagles. The Seahawks continue to find ways to win and they need to keep getting TE Jimmy Graham the football. He's scored 8 TD in his last seven games. They'll have to stop Eagles QB Carson Wentz though, who has been shredding defense's this season with a league leading 28 TD passes. With Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor out for the Seahawks, Wentz will expose the Seattle secondary as the Eagles win their 11th game of the year.
Pittsburgh (9-2) over CINCINNATI (5-6)
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Cincinnati finally found a running game last week with rookie RB Joe Mixon rushing for a career-high 114-yards and the Bengals rushed for 152-yards as a team. Now, that was against the Browns, so say what you want about the lack of competition, but if the Bengals can continue to run the football, they'll keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The last time the Bengals faced the Steelers they rushed for just 71-yards and gave up 152-yards to Le'Veon Bell and the Pittsburgh rushing attack. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati once already this season and with this game being on national television, which never seems to go well for the Bengals, they'll beat them again Monday night.
Last Week: 13-3
Overall: 113-63 (.642)
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