What was I thinking; Week 10 Picks
Half of the NFL season is in the books, which means it's time to look back at my predictions at the beginning of the season and try and figure out what the hell was I thinking?
First, let's recap my predictions for the NFC.
East: (4) New York Giants
North: (1) Green Bay Packers
South: (2) Atlanta Falcons
West: (3) Seattle Seahawks
Wild Card: (5) Dallas Cowboys, (6) Carolina Panthers
I'm still confident that either the Seahawks or Panthers will make the playoffs. Even though both struggle on offense, their defenses could have them playing football in January.
The Cowboys are right there, so the jury is still out on them. The Eagles are going to win the NFC East (totally missed that one), so the Cowboys will find themselves in a crowded Wild Card race with the aforementioned Seahawks and Panthers as well as the Falcons, Lions (easy schedule the rest of the season), Redskins, and possibly the Packers.
Speaking of the Packers, without Aaron Rodgers and a defense that is average at best, I don't see them making the playoffs. Same for the Falcons. They're not the team they were last year and with the Panthers at 6-3 and the Saints winning six straight and sitting at 6-2, they have their work cut out for them in the NFC South.
Finally, what in the world was I thinking picking the Giants to win the NFC East. They've had a lot of injuries, yes, but they didn't even play that well when Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall were healthy. Head coach Ben McAdoo is as good as fired and it might be time to blow up the whole thing and start over.
So, at best I could go 3-3 in my NFC predictions. Pitiful.
Things get a little better in the AFC.
East: (1) New England Patriots
North: (3) Pittsburgh Steelers
South: (4) Tennessee Titans
West: (2) Oakland Raiders
Wild Card: (5) Houston Texans, (6) Kansas City Chiefs
Patriots, Steelers, and Chiefs are almost locks to make the playoffs. Chiefs are probably going to win the AFC West, but I should get at least three teams in.
The Titans are still right there too. With Deshaun Watson's injury, the Texans are as good as done, so it's a two team race in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Titans both sitting at 5-3.
Still up in the air on the Raiders. They're 4-5 and still have the Patriots, Cowboys, Eagles and Chiefs left on the schedule. They'll have to play almost perfect football the rest of the way to get in, which I don't see happening.
So, I could get four teams correct in the AFC. Not bad, but not 100% either. Oh well.
Knowing what we do about each team halfway through the season, I'm going to take another stab at predicting who is going to make the playoffs.
New NFC Playoff Predictions:
East: (1) Philadelphia Eagles
North: (3) Minnesota Vikings
South: (4) New Orleans Saints
West: (2) Los Angeles Rams
Wild Card: (5) Detroit Lions, (6) Carolina Panthers
New AFC Playoff Predictions
East: (2) New England Patriots
North: (1) Pittsburgh Steelers
South: (4) Jacksonville Jaguars
West: (3) Kansas City Chiefs
Wild Card: (5) Buffalo Bills, (6) Tennessee Titans
Who had the Eagles, Lions, Saints, Rams, Jaguars, and Bills making the playoffs before the season started? Not many would be my guess. A lot of football is left, so anything could happen, but here's to hoping my predictions are better the second time around.
If my original playoff predictions weren't bad enough, I made some terrible decisions last week by picking the Packers, 49ers and Texans to win. The 49ers are just as bad as the Browns and Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't going to play, so why in the world would I expect them to win? And the Packers and Texans are completely different teams without Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson, respectively, yet I still picked both teams to win last week.
What was I thinking?
I wasn't thinking clearly, that's for sure. My mind is clear heading into this week as I've learned from my errors and won't make the same mistakes twice...maybe.
Week 10 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Seattle (5-3) over ARIZONA (4-4)
Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NBC, NFL Network, Amazon Prime)
These Thursday night games have not been good this season and I expect another dud this week. Even though the Cardinals won last week against the 49ers they're still without QB Carson Palmer and I think Drew Stanton will struggle against a very good Seattle defense. The Seahawks have their own issues on offense as well. They can't block and they can't run the football. Not an ideal situation. If Seattle is to catch the Rams in the division they're going to have to do it with their defense and that defense will be the difference on Thursday night.
New Orleans (6-2) over BUFFALO (5-3)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
Two playoff teams, perhaps? I think so. The Saints have surprised everybody winning six straight and the Bills aren't flashy, but they run the ball and their defense is solid. New Orleans has been on fire and I think they stay hot with a close win in Buffalo.
CHICAGO (3-5) over Green Bay (4-4)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Packers are struggling on offense without Aaron Rodgers, but that defense has to play better too. In the last two games the Packers defense has forced just two punts, including none on Monday night against the Lions, and has been on the field for 36 minutes each game. Even with Rodgers, you have to think the Packers might still be struggling to win games with a defense playing that poorly. Until I see improvements from the Packers defense, I'm going to have a hard time picking them. Bears get a close win.
DETROIT (4-4) over Cleveland (0-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Halfway through the season and I'm having a hard time finding a win for the Browns on their remaining schedule. It definitely won't be this week against the Lions nor next week against the Jaguars. Maybe they beat the Bengals, who look terrible, in three weeks, but that's on the road. Only win I possibly see is at the Bears on Christmas Eve and even that's a stretch. Could be an 0-16 season in Cleveland.
TENNESSEE (5-3) over Cincinnati (3-5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Cincinnati offense is abysmal. Zero running game, an offensive line that struggles in both run blocking and pass protection, zero receiving threats besides A.J. Green, and no passion whatsoever to try and win games. It's really hard to win in this league when you can't run the ball and it's even harder when you can't run the ball and your passing attack is nearly 100% reliant on one player. When Green was ejected for throwing a punch last week, Bengals fans had to know the offense was in trouble. Without Green the Bengals may have the worst offense in the league. Even with him they're dead last in yards per game (269.8) and 28th in points/game (16.1). The Titans don't have the best defense in the league, but they'll win the battle at the line of scrimmage and make it another tough day for Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense.
Pittsburgh (6-2) over INDIANAPOLIS (3-6)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Indianapolis managed to win a football game that wasn't against the Browns or 49ers. That deserves a job well done, but the team they beat did not have their two best players on defense (J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus) and their rookie sensation, QB Deshaun Watson, on offense. So, don't put too much stock in the Colts win. Jacoby Brissett though looks like a starting quarterback in this league more and more every week. The guy can flat out play. He'll have to play well and get the ball to WR T.Y. Hilton if the Colts have any chance of defeating the Steelers. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and I think they'll win by at least 10 points.
N.Y. Jets (4-5) over TAMPA BAY (2-6)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
QB Jameis Winston will be out for a "few" weeks with a shoulder injury, which means the Bucs losing streak will hit six this week. Jets improve to 5-5?! Never saw that coming.
Minnesota (6-2) over WASHINGTON (4-4)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
During the Vikings four-game winning streak, Mike Zimmer's defense has given up just 14.8 points/game and have been the key to Minnesota's success this season. QB Sam Bradford went on IR this week, but Teddy Bridgewater was placed on the active roster. Could still be a few weeks before we see Bridgewater back on an NFL field, but Case Keenum has done an admirable job filling in. With Aaron Rodgers out, the NFC North is the Vikings to lose at this point. Washington got a big win out in Seattle last week, but they have a ton of injuries, especially on the offensive line, and I expect the Vikings to get the win.
JACKSONVILLE (5-3) over L.A. Chargers (3-5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Jacksonville has the third best defense in the league and they run the ball better than anyone with 166.5 rushing yards/game. That's a recipe for success in the NFL and I see the Jaguars winning on Sunday and the next three Sunday's after that. In fact, I could see Jacksonville winning 11 games this season. They haven't done that since the George W. Bush administration.
L.A. RAMS (6-2) over Houston (3-5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Texans may not win another game if Tom Savage is their quarterback the rest of the season. He was terrible in their loss to the dreadful Colts last week and it just goes to show important Deshaun Watson was to that team. The Rams meanwhile, put up 51 on the Giants last week and are averaging 32.9 points/game. Houston gives up 26.0/game, third worst in the league. The over/under on this game is currently 46.5 and I'll take the over as I see the Rams scoring at least 42 in yet another win.
Dallas (5-3) over ATLANTA (4-4)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Something is different about the Atlanta Falcons and I can't seem to put my finger on it. They basically have the same roster that went to the Super Bowl a year ago, but they've lost four of their last five games and are 17th in the league in scoring (21.3 points/game). The offense just isn't putting up points like they were last season and until they play better or if they play better, I don't see the Falcons winning on Sunday against the Cowboys (even with Ezekiel Elliott suspended) or making the playoffs.
N.Y. Giants (1-7) over SAN FRANCISCO (0-9)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
The winner in this one will be the New York Giants, but at the end of the day there are no winners in this game. Both these teams are going nowhere this season and in fact, the 49ers are probably in better shape even though they've yet to win a game and will lose on Sunday. They have some young players to build around, a head coach who just needs some players to get his system up and rolling and they'll have one of the first two picks in the draft. Oh and they have Jimmy Garoppolo who is expected to be the backup again this week. The Giants need to fire their head coach and need so many players that it's probably easier to blow things up and start over. They may even part ways with Eli Manning. Giants win on Sunday, but lose for the foreseeable future. Makes sense.
New England (6-2) over DENVER (3-5)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Embarrassing loss for the Broncos in Philadelphia last Sunday. The Broncos haven't looked this bad in a long time and until they find a quarterback, things won't be getting any better. I'd start Paxton Lynch and see if he's any good. They used a first round pick on him, so now is the time to see if he's the future or if they need to look somewhere else. A well-rested Patriots team coming into town on Sunday night probably isn't the best spot to give Lynch a shot, but at 3-5, no time is good. Patriots win big.
CAROLINA (6-3) over Miami (4-4)
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Even though the Panthers are 6-3, that offense still is not very good. Cam Newton was 13 of 24 for 137-yards and completed pass to only three players and one of those guys was RB Christian McCaffrey. Good thing the Carolina defense is giving up just 17.7 points/game because besides Devin Funchess and McCaffrey (when they decide to get him the football) the Panthers have no weapons on offense. The Dolphins looked better with Jay Cutler back at quarterback last week, but every time I don't pick the Panthers they win, so not going to make that mistake this week. Carolina in a close game.
Bye: Baltimore, Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia
Last Week: 6-7
Overall: 82-50 (.621)
First, let's recap my predictions for the NFC.
East: (4) New York Giants
North: (1) Green Bay Packers
South: (2) Atlanta Falcons
West: (3) Seattle Seahawks
Wild Card: (5) Dallas Cowboys, (6) Carolina Panthers
I'm still confident that either the Seahawks or Panthers will make the playoffs. Even though both struggle on offense, their defenses could have them playing football in January.
The Cowboys are right there, so the jury is still out on them. The Eagles are going to win the NFC East (totally missed that one), so the Cowboys will find themselves in a crowded Wild Card race with the aforementioned Seahawks and Panthers as well as the Falcons, Lions (easy schedule the rest of the season), Redskins, and possibly the Packers.
Speaking of the Packers, without Aaron Rodgers and a defense that is average at best, I don't see them making the playoffs. Same for the Falcons. They're not the team they were last year and with the Panthers at 6-3 and the Saints winning six straight and sitting at 6-2, they have their work cut out for them in the NFC South.
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| Eli Manning and the Giants have been knocked down by everyone this season. (Al Bello/Getty Images) |
Finally, what in the world was I thinking picking the Giants to win the NFC East. They've had a lot of injuries, yes, but they didn't even play that well when Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall were healthy. Head coach Ben McAdoo is as good as fired and it might be time to blow up the whole thing and start over.
So, at best I could go 3-3 in my NFC predictions. Pitiful.
Things get a little better in the AFC.
East: (1) New England Patriots
North: (3) Pittsburgh Steelers
South: (4) Tennessee Titans
West: (2) Oakland Raiders
Wild Card: (5) Houston Texans, (6) Kansas City Chiefs
Patriots, Steelers, and Chiefs are almost locks to make the playoffs. Chiefs are probably going to win the AFC West, but I should get at least three teams in.
The Titans are still right there too. With Deshaun Watson's injury, the Texans are as good as done, so it's a two team race in the AFC South with the Jaguars and Titans both sitting at 5-3.
Still up in the air on the Raiders. They're 4-5 and still have the Patriots, Cowboys, Eagles and Chiefs left on the schedule. They'll have to play almost perfect football the rest of the way to get in, which I don't see happening.
So, I could get four teams correct in the AFC. Not bad, but not 100% either. Oh well.
Knowing what we do about each team halfway through the season, I'm going to take another stab at predicting who is going to make the playoffs.
New NFC Playoff Predictions:
East: (1) Philadelphia Eagles
North: (3) Minnesota Vikings
South: (4) New Orleans Saints
West: (2) Los Angeles Rams
Wild Card: (5) Detroit Lions, (6) Carolina Panthers
New AFC Playoff Predictions
East: (2) New England Patriots
North: (1) Pittsburgh Steelers
South: (4) Jacksonville Jaguars
West: (3) Kansas City Chiefs
Wild Card: (5) Buffalo Bills, (6) Tennessee Titans
Who had the Eagles, Lions, Saints, Rams, Jaguars, and Bills making the playoffs before the season started? Not many would be my guess. A lot of football is left, so anything could happen, but here's to hoping my predictions are better the second time around.
If my original playoff predictions weren't bad enough, I made some terrible decisions last week by picking the Packers, 49ers and Texans to win. The 49ers are just as bad as the Browns and Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't going to play, so why in the world would I expect them to win? And the Packers and Texans are completely different teams without Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson, respectively, yet I still picked both teams to win last week.
What was I thinking?
I wasn't thinking clearly, that's for sure. My mind is clear heading into this week as I've learned from my errors and won't make the same mistakes twice...maybe.
Week 10 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Seattle (5-3) over ARIZONA (4-4)
Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NBC, NFL Network, Amazon Prime)
These Thursday night games have not been good this season and I expect another dud this week. Even though the Cardinals won last week against the 49ers they're still without QB Carson Palmer and I think Drew Stanton will struggle against a very good Seattle defense. The Seahawks have their own issues on offense as well. They can't block and they can't run the football. Not an ideal situation. If Seattle is to catch the Rams in the division they're going to have to do it with their defense and that defense will be the difference on Thursday night.
New Orleans (6-2) over BUFFALO (5-3)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
Two playoff teams, perhaps? I think so. The Saints have surprised everybody winning six straight and the Bills aren't flashy, but they run the ball and their defense is solid. New Orleans has been on fire and I think they stay hot with a close win in Buffalo.
CHICAGO (3-5) over Green Bay (4-4)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Packers are struggling on offense without Aaron Rodgers, but that defense has to play better too. In the last two games the Packers defense has forced just two punts, including none on Monday night against the Lions, and has been on the field for 36 minutes each game. Even with Rodgers, you have to think the Packers might still be struggling to win games with a defense playing that poorly. Until I see improvements from the Packers defense, I'm going to have a hard time picking them. Bears get a close win.
DETROIT (4-4) over Cleveland (0-8)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Halfway through the season and I'm having a hard time finding a win for the Browns on their remaining schedule. It definitely won't be this week against the Lions nor next week against the Jaguars. Maybe they beat the Bengals, who look terrible, in three weeks, but that's on the road. Only win I possibly see is at the Bears on Christmas Eve and even that's a stretch. Could be an 0-16 season in Cleveland.
TENNESSEE (5-3) over Cincinnati (3-5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Cincinnati offense is abysmal. Zero running game, an offensive line that struggles in both run blocking and pass protection, zero receiving threats besides A.J. Green, and no passion whatsoever to try and win games. It's really hard to win in this league when you can't run the ball and it's even harder when you can't run the ball and your passing attack is nearly 100% reliant on one player. When Green was ejected for throwing a punch last week, Bengals fans had to know the offense was in trouble. Without Green the Bengals may have the worst offense in the league. Even with him they're dead last in yards per game (269.8) and 28th in points/game (16.1). The Titans don't have the best defense in the league, but they'll win the battle at the line of scrimmage and make it another tough day for Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati offense.
Pittsburgh (6-2) over INDIANAPOLIS (3-6)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Indianapolis managed to win a football game that wasn't against the Browns or 49ers. That deserves a job well done, but the team they beat did not have their two best players on defense (J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus) and their rookie sensation, QB Deshaun Watson, on offense. So, don't put too much stock in the Colts win. Jacoby Brissett though looks like a starting quarterback in this league more and more every week. The guy can flat out play. He'll have to play well and get the ball to WR T.Y. Hilton if the Colts have any chance of defeating the Steelers. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye and I think they'll win by at least 10 points.
N.Y. Jets (4-5) over TAMPA BAY (2-6)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
QB Jameis Winston will be out for a "few" weeks with a shoulder injury, which means the Bucs losing streak will hit six this week. Jets improve to 5-5?! Never saw that coming.
Minnesota (6-2) over WASHINGTON (4-4)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox)
During the Vikings four-game winning streak, Mike Zimmer's defense has given up just 14.8 points/game and have been the key to Minnesota's success this season. QB Sam Bradford went on IR this week, but Teddy Bridgewater was placed on the active roster. Could still be a few weeks before we see Bridgewater back on an NFL field, but Case Keenum has done an admirable job filling in. With Aaron Rodgers out, the NFC North is the Vikings to lose at this point. Washington got a big win out in Seattle last week, but they have a ton of injuries, especially on the offensive line, and I expect the Vikings to get the win.
JACKSONVILLE (5-3) over L.A. Chargers (3-5)
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)
Jacksonville has the third best defense in the league and they run the ball better than anyone with 166.5 rushing yards/game. That's a recipe for success in the NFL and I see the Jaguars winning on Sunday and the next three Sunday's after that. In fact, I could see Jacksonville winning 11 games this season. They haven't done that since the George W. Bush administration.
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| Jared Goff is leading the best offense in the NFL in his second season. (K.C. Alfred/San Diego-Union Tribune) |
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Texans may not win another game if Tom Savage is their quarterback the rest of the season. He was terrible in their loss to the dreadful Colts last week and it just goes to show important Deshaun Watson was to that team. The Rams meanwhile, put up 51 on the Giants last week and are averaging 32.9 points/game. Houston gives up 26.0/game, third worst in the league. The over/under on this game is currently 46.5 and I'll take the over as I see the Rams scoring at least 42 in yet another win.
Dallas (5-3) over ATLANTA (4-4)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Something is different about the Atlanta Falcons and I can't seem to put my finger on it. They basically have the same roster that went to the Super Bowl a year ago, but they've lost four of their last five games and are 17th in the league in scoring (21.3 points/game). The offense just isn't putting up points like they were last season and until they play better or if they play better, I don't see the Falcons winning on Sunday against the Cowboys (even with Ezekiel Elliott suspended) or making the playoffs.
N.Y. Giants (1-7) over SAN FRANCISCO (0-9)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
The winner in this one will be the New York Giants, but at the end of the day there are no winners in this game. Both these teams are going nowhere this season and in fact, the 49ers are probably in better shape even though they've yet to win a game and will lose on Sunday. They have some young players to build around, a head coach who just needs some players to get his system up and rolling and they'll have one of the first two picks in the draft. Oh and they have Jimmy Garoppolo who is expected to be the backup again this week. The Giants need to fire their head coach and need so many players that it's probably easier to blow things up and start over. They may even part ways with Eli Manning. Giants win on Sunday, but lose for the foreseeable future. Makes sense.
New England (6-2) over DENVER (3-5)
Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Embarrassing loss for the Broncos in Philadelphia last Sunday. The Broncos haven't looked this bad in a long time and until they find a quarterback, things won't be getting any better. I'd start Paxton Lynch and see if he's any good. They used a first round pick on him, so now is the time to see if he's the future or if they need to look somewhere else. A well-rested Patriots team coming into town on Sunday night probably isn't the best spot to give Lynch a shot, but at 3-5, no time is good. Patriots win big.
CAROLINA (6-3) over Miami (4-4)
Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Even though the Panthers are 6-3, that offense still is not very good. Cam Newton was 13 of 24 for 137-yards and completed pass to only three players and one of those guys was RB Christian McCaffrey. Good thing the Carolina defense is giving up just 17.7 points/game because besides Devin Funchess and McCaffrey (when they decide to get him the football) the Panthers have no weapons on offense. The Dolphins looked better with Jay Cutler back at quarterback last week, but every time I don't pick the Panthers they win, so not going to make that mistake this week. Carolina in a close game.
Bye: Baltimore, Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia
Last Week: 6-7
Overall: 82-50 (.621)
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