2013 AFC Preview

Time for the AFC. Having made my predictions in the NFC, with Washington, Green Bay, Atlanta, San Francisco, Seattle, and the New York Giants getting to the playoffs, here is who I see coming out of the AFC. Teams in each division are listed in my projected order of finish.

PROJECTED STANDINGS
Tom-brady-bill-belichick
QB Tom Brady and head coach Bill
Belichick are going for their fourth
Super Bowl ring together in 2013.
(Photo Courtesy of Getty Images)

AFC East
New England Patriots: Projected 2013 record, 11-5 (12-4 in 2012): Tom Brady may be a little short on weapons, but don't expect that to stop him from guiding the Patriots to another division title. Gone are WR Wes Welker and troubled TE Aaron Hernandez, and TE Rob Gronkowski has had an offseason full of injuries and surgeries. Whether he will return to his dominating form, and how soon he gets back on the field in general, are still up in the air, but he will return and WR Danny Amendola comes over from the Rams to replace Welker. I expect Gronk to be fine and Amendola is a solid replacement, who will quickly become one of Brady's favorite targets, trust me. The one thing that you can count on in New England again in 2013 is that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be leaders of this team. Belichick will have this team ready to play and I expect Brady to have an MVP caliber season. Four games against the woeful Bills and Jets will help as well. And then there is Tim Tebow. Tebow didn't make the final 53-man roster cut, so one has to wonder if we've seen the last of Tim Tebow on a football field. I hope not, because like him or not, the guy sure is interesting to watch.

Miami Dolphins: 8-8 (7-9): I really like this Dolphins team and here's why they have a chance to make the playoffs. QB Ryan Tannehill showed at times last year that he is capable of being a very good starting quarterback in the NFL. Miami went out and got hit a deep threat in WR Mike Wallace and although TE Dustin Keller is lost for the year, WR Brian Hartline is a very solid second target for him to throw to. Then there is RB Lamar Miller. Analysts have been raving about the second year back out of Miami (FL), aka "The U," and expectations are high for him this season. If Tannehill and the offense can improve and score some points, I think Miami just might find themselves in the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills: 5-11 (6-10): Don't expect the headlines in the Buffalo newspapers this season to read, "Tuel Fuels Bills to Winning Season." Undrafted rookie QB Jeff Tuel, out of Washington State, will make NFL history September 8th, when he starts for Buffalo against New England. Well, that was the plan, until rookie E.J. Manuel's knee healed quicker than anticipated and now he will start the opener. Either way, with Tuel or Manuel at quarterback, I think the Bills are in for a long season. Maybe they will surprise us all and Manuel will lead the Bills to some early wins to get the season off on the right foot. Stranger things have happen. However, the Bills have the Patriots and Dolphins on the schedule twice, plus the NFC South and the AFC North. Not going to be an easy road even with Manuel under center.

New York Jets: 4-12 (6-10): The J-E-T-S, JETS! JETS! JETS! Will be T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E, TERRIBLE! TERRIBLE! TERRIBLE! The Jets have a ton of problems going into 2013, but the two biggest -- and they're not small problems -- are the head coach and the quarterback. Head coach Rex Ryan continues to, well, entertain isn't the right word, let's say, be flamboyant in his press conferences. Here's a prime example. Turning your back at reporters? "C'mon Man!" Rex got grilled by analysts and the media for putting QB Mark Sanchez into their preseason game against the Giants with the second string offense, which resulted in Sanchez hurting his right shoulder, and he deserves to be criticized for it. His decision to start rookie QB Geno Smith was a poor one -- three interceptions against the Giants is proof enough that Geno is not ready to play in the NFL -- and to be honest, most of his decisions are bad ones, e.g. the Tim Tebow circus last season. Mark Sanchez looks like he won't be able to start the opener with a shoulder injury, so Geno Smith will get the start -- whether he's ready or not. The Jets are in for a terrible season regardless of who is at quarterback. Bold prediction: Rex Ryan does not finish the season as the Jets head coach.

AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals: ??? (10-6): Prediction still to come in my Bengals preview.
Ed Reed and Ray Lewis
Ed Reed and Ray Lewis had 22 combined Pro Bowl
selections while in a Ravens uniform.
(Doug Kapustin/MCT/Getty Images)

Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (10-6): Super Bowl repeat? Going to be pretty tough and here's why. The Ravens had their share of luck (see Denver Broncos preview) in the playoffs last year, but they got the job done and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. The only problem is that some major contributors on last year's team are now gone. LB Ray Lewis has retired. Safety Ed Reed is in Houston, LB Paul Kruger went to Cleveland, Dannell Ellerbe took his talents to South Beach, and Bernard Pollard is now in Tennessee. Ellerbe and Pollard were Baltimore's top two leading tacklers, Kruger had nine sacks, and Ed Reed and Ray Lewis were the leaders of the defense. That's a lot to replace in one offseason and although Baltimore still has Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Elvis Dumervil comes over from Denver, but the defense probably won't be as good as last year. On offense, the Ravens best receiver, Anquan Boldin, got traded to San Francisco, so Torrey Smith will be QB Joe Flacco's number one target. As for Flacco, he got paid big time with a 6-year, $120.6 million contract with $52 million guaranteed and he will have to play even better if the Ravens are to repeat.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-7 (8-8): Despite having the number one pass defense and number two rush defense, the Steelers only managed to go .500 last season. In Steeler country, that just doesn't cut it. I think the Steelers will improve upon last season record for the simple fact that they are the Steelers. They usually have a good season after a poor one and the franchise as a whole just seems to win year in and year out. The key for Pittsburgh though is to get back to running the football. The Steelers ranked 26th in rushing last season and rookie RB Le'Veon Bell should help Pittsburgh improve the run game when he returns from injury. RB Isaac Redman will get the start in the opener in the meantime. The Steelers do have a tough schedule and the Ravens and Bengals will most likely finish ahead of them, but I expect this division to be extremely close the entire season.

Cleveland Browns: 6-10 (5-11): The success of the Cleveland Browns in 2013 will depend on QB Brandon Weeden. Period. The second-year player out of Oklahoma State struggled at times last season throwing 14 touchdowns and 17 interceptions while only completing 57.4% of his passes. Weeden looked better this preseason, but if he struggles the Browns are in trouble. One thing going for the Browns though is RB Trent Richardson. The former Alabama running back had a decent rookie season, but Richardson was never 100% healthy and still managed to rush for 950-yards and 11 touchdowns. With a healthy Richardson and improved play from Weeden, the Browns should be an improved team. However, I don't see them getting past Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

AFC South
Houston Texans: 12-4 (12-4): If not now, when? Everything in Houston is aligned for the Texans to have a great season and contend for the Super Bowl. They have good talent on both sides of the ball and they are coming off back-to-back division championships. The two things that could keep Houston from the best season in franchise history are their schedule and injuries. Houston does have some very favorable games (Jacksonville twice), but they have to play San Francisco, Seattle, New England, Denver, Baltimore, a much improved Kansas City team on the road, and Indianapolis twice. I think the Texans will win most of those games, but it won't be easy. Secondly, their key players must stay healthy. RB Arian Foster has been dealing with injuries all preseason and WR Andre Johnson has been injury prone the last couple seasons as well. Besides, DE J.J. Watt, they are the most important players on the team, so if they stay healthy, there will be no problems in Houston in 2013.
Andrew Luck
Can Andrew Luck get the Colts back
 to the playoffs in 2013?
(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

Indianapolis Colts: 9-7 (11-5): Originally, I had the Colts out of the playoffs, but upon further examination, I think they will return to the playoffs this season. What QB Andrew Luck was able to do with this team last year as a rookie was remarkable. The Colts head coach was gone most of the year, they had a rushing attack ranked 22nd in the league, and the defense was ranked 21st against the pass and 29th against the rush. Of all the young quarterbacks, RGIII, Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, etc...I think Luck has the greatest chance to be a Hall of Famer. With a better running game and better play from the defense, Luck should be able to guide the Colts back to the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans: 6-10 (6-10): It's make or break for QB Jake Locker this season in Tennessee. Locker played in just 11 games last season, but if he can stay healthy he will get a chance to show the Titans if he is the answer at quarterback. He struggled though at times last season throwing 11 interceptions and completing just 56.4% of his passes, good for 28th in the league among qualified quarterbacks. The team also struggled last season going 6-10 and ranking in the bottom half of most offensive and defensive categories. The most notable was 21st in rushing yards per game and this is a team that has one of the best running backs in the league in Chris Johnson. Locker needs help from Johnson and the running game if he is going to have some success and if CJ can score more than six touchdowns this season, the Titans should be better on offense. Indianapolis and Houston will be tough to beat in the division, however.

Jacksonville Jaguars: 3-13 (2-14): Don't expect much improvement in the Jaguars this season. Jacksonville was dreadful last season with the one of worst offenses and defenses in the league, but the good news is not too many people had to suffer through their games because no one goes to their home games. EverBank Field looks like a ghost town most of the time and why several of the sections are covered with tarps. The only good thing the Jaguars have going for them this season is that they should have a healthy Maurice Jones-Drew for an entire season. QB Blaine Gabbert has also shown some signs of improving, so I think Jacksonville will increase last year's win total. Unfortunately, probably by no more than one or two games.
Wes Welker
Don't be surprise if Wes Welker catches 100 or more
passes from Peyton Manning this season.
(Photo Courtesy of Reuters)
AFC West
Denver Broncos: 12-4 (13-3): The sheriff has a new weapon and his name is Wes Welker. Peyton Manning was 31 seconds away from going to another AFC Championship when safety Rahim Moore made what can only be described as one of the worst defensive plays in playoff history and allowed Baltimore receiver Jacoby Jones to walk into the end zone to tie the game. The Broncos would eventually lose in double overtime and heading into 2013 you can bet that game still lingers in the back of the minds of every Broncos player who was there. Denver did lose Elvis Dumervil to free agency and LB Von Miller will be suspended for the first six games of the season for violating the league's performance-enhancing drugs policy, but with Peyton Manning under center, I think the Broncos will be just fine.

Kansas City Chiefs: 8-8 (2-14): There may not be another team in the NFL more improved this season than the Kansas City Chiefs. They went 2-14 last season and that was with six Pro Bowlers on the team. I imagine they'll do much better this season and here's why. They underwent a massive overhaul this past offseason and I think it will pay immediate dividends. First, there is head coach Andy Reid. Reid had spent the last 14 years as the head coach in Philadelphia and after a not so happy ending there, Andy comes to Kansas City hoping to turn around an already impressive career. Next, there is QB Alex Smith. The Chiefs were dead last in passing last season with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn, and former number one overall pick Alex Smith should bolster the position tremendously. He has talented players in RB Jamaal Charles, wide receivers Dwayne Bowe and Dexter McCluster and TE Anthony Fasano to get the ball too. Not to mention first overall pick Eric Fisher will boost the offensive line. Topping Denver in the division will be tough, but the Chiefs just might contend for a wild card spot come late December.

San Diego Chargers: 5-11 (7-9): Year in and year out, it seems like the only thing the San Diego Chargers do is disappoint. They have always been a team with a lot of talent and great expectations, but by season's end all they have accomplished is frustrating their fans. It was just a few years ago that the Chargers got to the AFC Championship game and now one can argue that they are rebuilding. QB Philip Rivers has the talent to be one of the better quarterbacks in the league, but his inconsistency hurt his team last year and so too did injuries. RB Ryan Mathews continues to have an injury prone career and TE Antonio Gates seems to struggle with injuries every year. These injuries and inconsistency showed last year with the Chargers offense ranking 24th in passing and 27th in the league in rushing. The defense is solid, but I don't see things getting better out in sunny San Diego.

Oakland Raiders: 3-13 (4-12): Terrelle Pryor over Matt Flynn. Pryor beat out Flynn this preseason despite the Raiders signing Flynn this offseason to be the starter. Neither one of them was all that impressive in the preseason, but with his athleticism and ability to run, Pryor does give the Raiders another dimension on offense. I'll be very curious to see how Pryor plays and who knows, maybe he'll lead the Raiders to a couple of wins. The main problems for the Raiders though, is they are in a tough division with Denver and an improved Kansas City team, they had almost zero running game last year -- 28th in the league --with RB Darren McFadden always hurt and they play in a terrible stadium. Okay, the stadium doesn't really have anything to do with the performance on the field, but the Oakland Athletics also play at O.co Coliseum and they have had some issues there this season. Rays pitcher Fernando Rodney got stuck in the dugout bathroom and back in June, the Mariners and A's had to share a locker room due to some "fluid" in both clubhouses. What a dump. So, the Raiders season, much like the "fluid" in the clubhouses, will be crap.

Let's recap. My division winners are the Patriots (11-5) in the East, Bengals in the North -- thoughts and my prediction on Cincinnati still to come -- Texans (12-4) in the South, and Broncos (12-4) in the West. As for the wild card, I see the defending Super Bowl champions, the Ravens (10-6), and then the Colts (9-7), as the last two teams into the playoffs. I think the Steelers, Dolphins, and Chiefs will also be in contention at the end of the season.

More thoughts are still to come with on my preview of the 2013 Cincinnati Bengals and my playoff predictions, where I will name my Super Bowl XLVIII champion. So, stay tuned. 

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