2013 NFC Preview
Another NFL season is upon us, which must mean it's time for predictions. The return of football gets me as excited as a slightly overweight gentleman on a tour of the local candy factory to see how chocolate is made. As much as I love football, I might love talking about it even more. There is so much to talk about for every single team, let's just cut to the chase. Up next, are my predictions and thoughts on all 16 teams in the NFC. Teams in each division are listed in my projected order of finish.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
NFC East
Washington Redskins: 11-5, projected 2013 record (10-6 in 2012): RGIII, Act II. Robert Griffin III amazed the NFL with his play last year and everyone in Redskins country is hoping his surgically repaired knee holds up this season. The Redskins won the division last year due in large part to being the number one rushing team in the league behind RGIII and RB Alfred Morris. Although I expect Griffin to run a little less -- to lower the amount of hits he takes over the course of the season -- Washington should still have an effective rushing attack. Additionally, with the return of a healthy Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan on defense, the Redskins should be a favorite to win the division.
New York Giants: 10-6 (9-7 in 2012): Having won the Super Bowl the year prior and then missing the playoffs in 2012, last season was a disappointment for the New York Football Giants, to say the least. With that being said, I look for them to turn things around in 2013. Eli Manning is one the best quarterbacks in the league and if wide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can stay healthy, the offense should be in good shape. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is gone, so David Wilson and Andre Brown (who broke is leg left leg in the final preseason game) will be expected to step up in the running game. An area to watch as the season gets underway. But the biggest key to the Giants success this season will be the play of the defense. New York was 28th against the pass and 25th against the run last season and those rankings must improve if the G-Men are to get back to the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (8-8 in 2012): Will this be the year that the Dallas Cowboys return to the playoffs? They haven't won a playoff game since 2009 and have missed the playoffs the last three seasons, something that probably keeps owner Jerry Jones up at night. QB Tony Romo signed a 6-year contract extension this past offseason worth $108 million with $55 million guaranteed. Analysts and fans argue over whether Romo is an elite quarterback in the NFL -- I would say he's in the top ten, but not elite -- no arguing that he got paid elite quarterback money, however. Most of the pressure to get the Cowboys back to the playoffs will therefore fall on his and head coach Jason Garrett's shoulders this season. A strong NFC and a tough NFC East, however, most likely leaves the Cowboys out of the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-11 (4-12 in 2012): After a very disappointing 4-12 season, Andy Reid is gone and in steps former Oregon Ducks head coach, Chip Kelly. A high tempo offense is expected in Philly this season, as Kelly's Oregon teams had one of the best offenses in the country during his time in Eugene. With the explosion of the read option in the NFL, Kelly's offensive style just might work in the NFL, which is what Eagles management is hoping for. However, this team is at least a year away from competing in the competitive NFC East.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: 12-4 (11-5 in 2012): Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are hoping to make another run at the Super Bowl this season and realistically I think they have a great chance of getting there if these two things happen. First, a running game is established. The Packers ranked 20th in the league in rushing last year and it will be a running back committee most likely of James Starks, and rookies Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin this year. Defenses know what Rodgers and the passing game are capable of and if Green Bay can establish some sort of a rushing attack it will turn defensive coordinators headaches into migraines.
Secondly, the defense improves. The Packers defense got shredded by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers read-option last January, giving up 45 points and 579-yards of offense, which led to an early exit in the playoffs. Linebacker Clay Matthews will take over the leadership role with the departure of CB Charles Woodson on defense and if he not only has one of the best seasons of his career, but elevates the play of the other guys, then Green Bay could end up in the Super Bowl.
Chicago Bears: 8-8 (10-6 in 2012): Two things will determine whether the Bears make the playoffs in 2013. Number one, the play of QB Jay Cutler. With this being the final year of his contract, if Cutler does not play well enough to get this team to the playoffs, then this will be his last season in a Bears uniform. He has great weapons in WR Brandon Marshall and RB Matt Forte, and his new head coach, Marc Trestman, is an offensive guru. If the Bears offensive line can give him some time, Cutler should have some success. Secondly, how will linebacker D.J. Williams, who is replacing the retired Brian Urlacher, play in the middle of the Chicago defense. Urlacher spent the last 13-years as the heart and soul of the Chicago defense and I think the Bears will miss his leadership. The Bears defense should still be one of the best in the league though, even without Urlacher.
Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (10-6 in 2012): The biggest questions surround the Vikings this season is not will Adrian Peterson rush for 2,000-yards again, rather, will QB Christian Ponder take a giant step forward. Minnesota ranked 31st in the league in passing and 2nd on the ground. I mean, if I had Adrian Peterson I would give him the ball all day too, but defenses will adjust. Defensive coordinators are going to be loading seven, eight, or nine guys in the box to stop Peterson, so the Vikings are going to have to throw the football. If Ponder proves he has what it takes to be an NFL quarterback, the Vikings might repeat last year's record. If not, then they won't be returning to the playoffs. It's that simple.
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (4-12 in 2012): Expect the Lions to score, and give up, lots of points again this season. QB Matthew Stafford had 727 pass attempts last season, the next closest was Saints QB Drew Brees with 670. The Lions need to find a better balance on offense, but with addition of RB Reggie Bush and his pass catching ability, Stafford could throw even more. However, Stafford must become more consistent throwing the ball, a 59.8 completion percentage just isn't good enough. Detroit will score points, no doubt, but their defense gave up the sixth most points last season with 437. The Lions will have a good defensive line again, but the back half of that defense is what will make or break them. If the number of points doesn't come down, however, the Lions won't even sniff the playoffs no matter ridiculous numbers WR Calvin Johnson puts up.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 (13-3 in 2012): The Atlanta Falcons were one half away from going to the Super Bowl last season and that leaves a bitter taste in your mouth the entire offseason. The Falcons will be loaded once again this season and they have added a few key players that they hope can get them to New York for the Super Bowl XLVIII. RB Steven Jackson comes over from the Rams and should give the Falcons a boost in the running game, one that ranked 29th in the league last season. Future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez will also return to the Falcons this season after being talked out of retirement. Along with wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, Gonzalez gives QB Matt Ryan three of the best receivers in all of football to throw too. Then on defense, Osi Umenyiora replaces John Abraham on the defensive line and will help Atlanta get so much needed pressure on the opposing quarterback – Atlanta had just 29 sacks as a team last season. A talented group nonetheless and one capable of playing into February.
New Orleans Saints: 9-7 (7-9 in 2012): Sean Payton is back. That’s basically all you need to know. The Saints were lost without their head coach last season and it showed with them only winning seven ball games. With Payton back calling plays on offense, expect Drew Brees and Co. to score more than the 461 points they scored last year. The problem with the Saints though, is the defense. New Orleans was 31st against the run, 32nd against the pass, and gave up the second most points with 454. A team should be able to win 11 games, easy, when they score 461 points over the course of a season. The Saints will get some help on defense with rookie safety Kenny Vaccaro and if they can give figure out a way to give up less than 400 points, then this might be a double-digit win team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (7-9 in 2012): Much like Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman has one more chance to prove himself or he’s out of a job. Freeman threw for over 4,000-yards and 27 touchdowns last season, but he had a completion percentage of just 54.8 percent, 29th among quarterbacks. Tampa Bay finished a disappointing 7-9 and lost five of their last six games in Greg Schiano’s first year as head coach, and I don’t see things getting much better. The Buccaneers ranked dead last against the pass last season and they lost their leader in CB Ronde Barber to retirement. Tampa did get CB Darrelle Revis to replace him, but Revis is coming off knee surgery and whether he can return to being the best cornerback in the league is unknown. If Revis is healthy and Freeman has the best year of his career, the Buccaneers can contend in the division.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: 12-4 (11-4-1 in 2012): The defending NFC Champions fell just short of capturing the franchises sixth Super Bowl and that should give them some extra motivation as they head into the 2013 season. The 49ers are once again loaded on both sides of the ball and there is a laundry list of reasons why the 49ers will be successful this season, but the two biggest ones are their ability to run the football and play defense. The 49ers were 4th in the league in rushing last year and with QB Colin Kaepernick running the read-option for 16 games with that great offensive line, should result in the best rushing attack in the league. Secondly, the San Francisco defense is phenomenal. They were 4th against the run and the pass last season and only gave up 273 points, second best in the league. Almost all of the starters will return and CB Nnamdi Asomugha will try to resurrect his career out by the Bay after a not so pleasant experience in Philadelphia. A solid group, to say the least and if they were to earn a second straight trip to the Super Bowl, that would not surprise me in the least.
Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11-5 in 2012): The Seahawks were up 28-27 in Atlanta with 31 seconds left before they earned a trip to the NFC Championship game. A 49-yard field goal by Falcons kicker, Matt Bryant, 22 seconds later, however, ended their season. Seattle is hoping to build off a very successful 2012 campaign, one that saw rookie QB Russell Wilson blossom into one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. The offense should be just as good as they were last year with RB Marshawn Lynch, a very solid offensive line, and good receivers in Sidney Rice and Golden Tate returning. The defense was great last year, ranking in the top ten in passing and rushing yards allowed, and Seattle gave up the fewest points in the league at 245. The greatest weapon Seattle will have this season though, is there fans and CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks were 8-0 at home last season and fans are planning to break the world decibel record on September 15th, when the 49ers come to town. Good luck, San Francisco.
St. Louis Rams: 8-8 (7-8-1 in 2012): Much like the Buccaneers and Bears, the Rams will go as far as their quarterback will take them. Former first overall pick, Sam Bradford, needs to elevate his game if St. Louis is to contend in the NFC West. The front office went out and got Bradford some more weapons in TE Jared Cook from the Tennessee Titans and they drafted West Virginia receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. But the team did lose WR Danny Amendola to the Patriots and RB Steven Jackson to the Falcons. Jackson has been the Rams best player, in my opinion, since his days as a rookie and one has to think he will be missed. The Rams will be competitive, but a tough division and conference, probably keeps them out of the playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals: 7-9 (5-11 in 2012): The Cardinals finally have a quarterback. Arizona fans last year watching Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer throw 11 touchdowns and 21 interceptions combined, so Carson Palmer is a sight for sore eyes. Palmer isn't the player he once was, but he's a tremendous improvement from what Arizona had last year. WR Larry Fitzgerald is probably the happiest man in the desert and I think he's in for a great season. With the addition of rookie guard Jonathan Cooper and RB Rashard Mendenhall, the Cardinals should also have a better rushing attack, one that was dead last in the league last season. The problem is, Arizona is in a very tough division and I don't think they have enough to contend. Watch out for former LSU player Tyrann Mathieu though, he could a big impact out in the desert this season both defensively and on special teams -- granted he stays out of trouble, of course.
Let's recap. My division winners are the Redskins (11-5) in the East, Packers (12-4) in the North, Falcons (11-5) in the South and 49ers (12-4) in the West. With that being said, I then have the Seahawks (11-5) and Giants (10-6) coming out of the wild card. I also look for the Saints, Cowboys and Bears to be in contention come playoff time.
The NFC is loaded this year and whoever wins this conference just might win the Super Bowl. But playoff predictions are still to come.
Next up, my preview for the AFC. Stay tuned.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
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| Expect less running from RGIII in 2013. (Evan Vucci/AP) |
Washington Redskins: 11-5, projected 2013 record (10-6 in 2012): RGIII, Act II. Robert Griffin III amazed the NFL with his play last year and everyone in Redskins country is hoping his surgically repaired knee holds up this season. The Redskins won the division last year due in large part to being the number one rushing team in the league behind RGIII and RB Alfred Morris. Although I expect Griffin to run a little less -- to lower the amount of hits he takes over the course of the season -- Washington should still have an effective rushing attack. Additionally, with the return of a healthy Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan on defense, the Redskins should be a favorite to win the division.
New York Giants: 10-6 (9-7 in 2012): Having won the Super Bowl the year prior and then missing the playoffs in 2012, last season was a disappointment for the New York Football Giants, to say the least. With that being said, I look for them to turn things around in 2013. Eli Manning is one the best quarterbacks in the league and if wide receivers Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks can stay healthy, the offense should be in good shape. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is gone, so David Wilson and Andre Brown (who broke is leg left leg in the final preseason game) will be expected to step up in the running game. An area to watch as the season gets underway. But the biggest key to the Giants success this season will be the play of the defense. New York was 28th against the pass and 25th against the run last season and those rankings must improve if the G-Men are to get back to the playoffs.
Dallas Cowboys: 8-8 (8-8 in 2012): Will this be the year that the Dallas Cowboys return to the playoffs? They haven't won a playoff game since 2009 and have missed the playoffs the last three seasons, something that probably keeps owner Jerry Jones up at night. QB Tony Romo signed a 6-year contract extension this past offseason worth $108 million with $55 million guaranteed. Analysts and fans argue over whether Romo is an elite quarterback in the NFL -- I would say he's in the top ten, but not elite -- no arguing that he got paid elite quarterback money, however. Most of the pressure to get the Cowboys back to the playoffs will therefore fall on his and head coach Jason Garrett's shoulders this season. A strong NFC and a tough NFC East, however, most likely leaves the Cowboys out of the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles: 5-11 (4-12 in 2012): After a very disappointing 4-12 season, Andy Reid is gone and in steps former Oregon Ducks head coach, Chip Kelly. A high tempo offense is expected in Philly this season, as Kelly's Oregon teams had one of the best offenses in the country during his time in Eugene. With the explosion of the read option in the NFL, Kelly's offensive style just might work in the NFL, which is what Eagles management is hoping for. However, this team is at least a year away from competing in the competitive NFC East.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers: 12-4 (11-5 in 2012): Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are hoping to make another run at the Super Bowl this season and realistically I think they have a great chance of getting there if these two things happen. First, a running game is established. The Packers ranked 20th in the league in rushing last year and it will be a running back committee most likely of James Starks, and rookies Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin this year. Defenses know what Rodgers and the passing game are capable of and if Green Bay can establish some sort of a rushing attack it will turn defensive coordinators headaches into migraines.
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| Clay Matthews will take over the reins as leader of the Packers defense from Charles Woodson in 2013. (Jeff Hanisch/USA Today Sports) |
Secondly, the defense improves. The Packers defense got shredded by Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers read-option last January, giving up 45 points and 579-yards of offense, which led to an early exit in the playoffs. Linebacker Clay Matthews will take over the leadership role with the departure of CB Charles Woodson on defense and if he not only has one of the best seasons of his career, but elevates the play of the other guys, then Green Bay could end up in the Super Bowl.
Chicago Bears: 8-8 (10-6 in 2012): Two things will determine whether the Bears make the playoffs in 2013. Number one, the play of QB Jay Cutler. With this being the final year of his contract, if Cutler does not play well enough to get this team to the playoffs, then this will be his last season in a Bears uniform. He has great weapons in WR Brandon Marshall and RB Matt Forte, and his new head coach, Marc Trestman, is an offensive guru. If the Bears offensive line can give him some time, Cutler should have some success. Secondly, how will linebacker D.J. Williams, who is replacing the retired Brian Urlacher, play in the middle of the Chicago defense. Urlacher spent the last 13-years as the heart and soul of the Chicago defense and I think the Bears will miss his leadership. The Bears defense should still be one of the best in the league though, even without Urlacher.
Minnesota Vikings: 6-10 (10-6 in 2012): The biggest questions surround the Vikings this season is not will Adrian Peterson rush for 2,000-yards again, rather, will QB Christian Ponder take a giant step forward. Minnesota ranked 31st in the league in passing and 2nd on the ground. I mean, if I had Adrian Peterson I would give him the ball all day too, but defenses will adjust. Defensive coordinators are going to be loading seven, eight, or nine guys in the box to stop Peterson, so the Vikings are going to have to throw the football. If Ponder proves he has what it takes to be an NFL quarterback, the Vikings might repeat last year's record. If not, then they won't be returning to the playoffs. It's that simple.
Detroit Lions: 6-10 (4-12 in 2012): Expect the Lions to score, and give up, lots of points again this season. QB Matthew Stafford had 727 pass attempts last season, the next closest was Saints QB Drew Brees with 670. The Lions need to find a better balance on offense, but with addition of RB Reggie Bush and his pass catching ability, Stafford could throw even more. However, Stafford must become more consistent throwing the ball, a 59.8 completion percentage just isn't good enough. Detroit will score points, no doubt, but their defense gave up the sixth most points last season with 437. The Lions will have a good defensive line again, but the back half of that defense is what will make or break them. If the number of points doesn't come down, however, the Lions won't even sniff the playoffs no matter ridiculous numbers WR Calvin Johnson puts up.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: 11-5 (13-3 in 2012): The Atlanta Falcons were one half away from going to the Super Bowl last season and that leaves a bitter taste in your mouth the entire offseason. The Falcons will be loaded once again this season and they have added a few key players that they hope can get them to New York for the Super Bowl XLVIII. RB Steven Jackson comes over from the Rams and should give the Falcons a boost in the running game, one that ranked 29th in the league last season. Future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez will also return to the Falcons this season after being talked out of retirement. Along with wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones, Gonzalez gives QB Matt Ryan three of the best receivers in all of football to throw too. Then on defense, Osi Umenyiora replaces John Abraham on the defensive line and will help Atlanta get so much needed pressure on the opposing quarterback – Atlanta had just 29 sacks as a team last season. A talented group nonetheless and one capable of playing into February.
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| No one is happier to see head coach Sean Payton back on the sidelines than Saints QB Drew Brees. (Photo Courtesy US Presswire) |
New Orleans Saints: 9-7 (7-9 in 2012): Sean Payton is back. That’s basically all you need to know. The Saints were lost without their head coach last season and it showed with them only winning seven ball games. With Payton back calling plays on offense, expect Drew Brees and Co. to score more than the 461 points they scored last year. The problem with the Saints though, is the defense. New Orleans was 31st against the run, 32nd against the pass, and gave up the second most points with 454. A team should be able to win 11 games, easy, when they score 461 points over the course of a season. The Saints will get some help on defense with rookie safety Kenny Vaccaro and if they can give figure out a way to give up less than 400 points, then this might be a double-digit win team.
Carolina Panthers: 8-8 (7-9 in 2012): After two seasons in the NFL, I’m still waiting for QB Cam Newton to take that next leap into the conversation as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. Newton’s passing yards declined in 2012 and he threw two less touchdown passes. Cam was the Panthers leading rusher with 741-yards, but I personally don’t want my quarterback to be my leading rusher, especially in the NFL. Newton received a lot of hits last season and if he were to get hurt the Panthers are in big trouble. Until I see Cam dominate the field, like he did at Auburn, then I don’t see much improvement in the Panthers this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-9 (7-9 in 2012): Much like Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman has one more chance to prove himself or he’s out of a job. Freeman threw for over 4,000-yards and 27 touchdowns last season, but he had a completion percentage of just 54.8 percent, 29th among quarterbacks. Tampa Bay finished a disappointing 7-9 and lost five of their last six games in Greg Schiano’s first year as head coach, and I don’t see things getting much better. The Buccaneers ranked dead last against the pass last season and they lost their leader in CB Ronde Barber to retirement. Tampa did get CB Darrelle Revis to replace him, but Revis is coming off knee surgery and whether he can return to being the best cornerback in the league is unknown. If Revis is healthy and Freeman has the best year of his career, the Buccaneers can contend in the division.
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| Patrick Willis (52) will once again lead, arguably, the best defense in the NFL. (Photo Courtesy of 49ers.com) |
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: 12-4 (11-4-1 in 2012): The defending NFC Champions fell just short of capturing the franchises sixth Super Bowl and that should give them some extra motivation as they head into the 2013 season. The 49ers are once again loaded on both sides of the ball and there is a laundry list of reasons why the 49ers will be successful this season, but the two biggest ones are their ability to run the football and play defense. The 49ers were 4th in the league in rushing last year and with QB Colin Kaepernick running the read-option for 16 games with that great offensive line, should result in the best rushing attack in the league. Secondly, the San Francisco defense is phenomenal. They were 4th against the run and the pass last season and only gave up 273 points, second best in the league. Almost all of the starters will return and CB Nnamdi Asomugha will try to resurrect his career out by the Bay after a not so pleasant experience in Philadelphia. A solid group, to say the least and if they were to earn a second straight trip to the Super Bowl, that would not surprise me in the least.
Seattle Seahawks: 11-5 (11-5 in 2012): The Seahawks were up 28-27 in Atlanta with 31 seconds left before they earned a trip to the NFC Championship game. A 49-yard field goal by Falcons kicker, Matt Bryant, 22 seconds later, however, ended their season. Seattle is hoping to build off a very successful 2012 campaign, one that saw rookie QB Russell Wilson blossom into one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. The offense should be just as good as they were last year with RB Marshawn Lynch, a very solid offensive line, and good receivers in Sidney Rice and Golden Tate returning. The defense was great last year, ranking in the top ten in passing and rushing yards allowed, and Seattle gave up the fewest points in the league at 245. The greatest weapon Seattle will have this season though, is there fans and CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks were 8-0 at home last season and fans are planning to break the world decibel record on September 15th, when the 49ers come to town. Good luck, San Francisco.
St. Louis Rams: 8-8 (7-8-1 in 2012): Much like the Buccaneers and Bears, the Rams will go as far as their quarterback will take them. Former first overall pick, Sam Bradford, needs to elevate his game if St. Louis is to contend in the NFC West. The front office went out and got Bradford some more weapons in TE Jared Cook from the Tennessee Titans and they drafted West Virginia receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. But the team did lose WR Danny Amendola to the Patriots and RB Steven Jackson to the Falcons. Jackson has been the Rams best player, in my opinion, since his days as a rookie and one has to think he will be missed. The Rams will be competitive, but a tough division and conference, probably keeps them out of the playoffs.
Arizona Cardinals: 7-9 (5-11 in 2012): The Cardinals finally have a quarterback. Arizona fans last year watching Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Ryan Lindley, and Brian Hoyer throw 11 touchdowns and 21 interceptions combined, so Carson Palmer is a sight for sore eyes. Palmer isn't the player he once was, but he's a tremendous improvement from what Arizona had last year. WR Larry Fitzgerald is probably the happiest man in the desert and I think he's in for a great season. With the addition of rookie guard Jonathan Cooper and RB Rashard Mendenhall, the Cardinals should also have a better rushing attack, one that was dead last in the league last season. The problem is, Arizona is in a very tough division and I don't think they have enough to contend. Watch out for former LSU player Tyrann Mathieu though, he could a big impact out in the desert this season both defensively and on special teams -- granted he stays out of trouble, of course.
Let's recap. My division winners are the Redskins (11-5) in the East, Packers (12-4) in the North, Falcons (11-5) in the South and 49ers (12-4) in the West. With that being said, I then have the Seahawks (11-5) and Giants (10-6) coming out of the wild card. I also look for the Saints, Cowboys and Bears to be in contention come playoff time.
The NFC is loaded this year and whoever wins this conference just might win the Super Bowl. But playoff predictions are still to come.
Next up, my preview for the AFC. Stay tuned.
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