NFL 2015: Week 4 Picks

One word can describe Week 3 in the NFL...blowout. 

Patriots fans had a lot to cheer about last Sunday as
WR Julian Edelman and the Patriots beat
the Jaguars 51-17.
(Photo Courtesy of Patriots.com)

After a week of upsets and surprising victories, the NFL handed us numerous blowouts that you would've thought you were watching Ohio State steamroll a team from the FCS. Here are some of last week's lopsided games. 

New England beat up on Jacksonville and won by 34. Seattle shutout Chicago 26-0. Green Bay was up by 24 before Kansas City scored in garbage time to cut the deficit to 10. The NY Giants were up by 19 in the fourth quarter against Washington last Thursday night before the Redskins cut the deficit to 12, also in garbage time. Buffalo dominated Miami in a 41-14 victory.

But the biggest blowout of them all was Arizona beating San Francisco by 40. That's right, 40 points. The 49ers managed only 156-yards of offense and turned the ball over four times, all via Colin Kaepernick interceptions. Is this 49ers vs. Cardinals or Baylor vs. Rice? 

Don't get me wrong, as a fan I love seeing the occasional 30-point victory, but not as many as we saw last week. This is the NFL and I expect to see some quality dog fights that come down to the final two minutes. 

Great example was the Bengals and Ravens last week. I about had a heart attack with the back and forth scoring late in that game and probably lost a year or two off my life due the stress of watching.

That was a great game and I hope we see more games like that the rest of the season. I just hope my heart can take it. Don't be surprised though if we have a ton of close games this weekend after having a lot of noncompetitive games last week, because things change in the NFL quite rapidly. 

As for my power rankings, there was quite a bit of movement in the Week 4 edition of the AR Top 32 and my latest rankings can be found here. 

My top 5 teams are as follows: Patriots, Packers, Cardinals, Bengals and Broncos. Best five teams in the league, hands down, in my opinion. 

Several teams, the Panthers, Falcons, Eagles, Giants and Raiders made the biggest jumps from last week after they all won their games and looked good doing it. And finally, the 49ers, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Saints and Bears are in the cellar as my worst teams in the league and it doesn't look like they will be climbing out of the bottom anytime soon. 

Up next, my picks for Week 4. 

Week 4 Picks (Home team in CAPS)

PITTSBURGH over Baltimore (Thursday, 8:25 P.M. ET, CBS/NFL): As hard it is to believe, I can see the Baltimore Ravens starting to season 0-4. They played with desperation last week, but came up short against the Bengals. Now, at 0-3, they cannot afford another loss. A nail or two is probably in their playoff coffin already. Even without Ben Roethlisberger, I'm just not convinced the Ravens defense is good enough for them to win in Pittsburgh. QB Michael Vick will get the start for the Steelers and I think he will play well enough for Pittsburgh to improve to 3-1. 

NY Jets over MIAMI (Sunday, 9:30 A.M. ET, CBS, in London): Neither the Jets or Dolphins played very well last week in losing efforts, but maybe a trip over to London will help both teams rebound. It's a early kick on Sunday for those of us here in the US -- 9:30am -- which is a terrific idea by the NFL. You can now watch football on Sunday from 9:30am to about 11:30pm. I can't think of a better way to spend a Sunday. I like the Jets to win the first of three NFL games this season in London. 

INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): The Colts escaped Nashville with a 35-33 win over the Titans and find themselves at 1-2 and tied for the division lead. Indy has not played well in their first three games -- QB Andrew Luck has turned the ball over nine times -- but they are in what could be the worse division in football and this week they get division rival Jacksonville, fresh off a 51-17 beat down at the hands of New England. It will be close, but I like the Colts to get to .500 at home. 

BUFFALO over NY Giants (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Great rebound by the Bills last week. After giving up 500-yards and 40 points to the Patriots, Buffalo scored 41 of their own against division rival Miami in a 41-14 win in South Beach. QB Tyrod Taylor played very well last week throwing for 277-yards and three touchdowns and he will be the key to Buffalo's success this season. With a solid defense and the rushing attack with LeSean McCoy, if Taylor plays well the Bills just might find themselves in the playoffs. I like what I saw from the Giants last Thursday night against Washington, but I don't see them beating the Bills up in Buffalo. 

Carolina over TAMPA BAY (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Carolina has quietly gone 3-0 to start the year and I think they will make if 4-0 with a win in Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Panthers have beaten the likes of Jacksonville, Houston and New Orleans, who aren't the best teams in the NFL, but a win is a win in this league. We will find out how good Carolina is in two weeks when they visit Seattle after a bye week.  

Philadelphia over WASHINGTON (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): For the Redskins, the bottom line is the play of QB Kirk Cousins. In Washington's two losses, Cousins has thrown four interceptions and has an average QBR of 38.9. In the Redskins lone win, Cousins threw no interceptions and had a QBR of 72.4. The Eagles defense ranks third in interceptions this season and they are coming off their first win of the season having picked off Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick three times. Philadelphia looked a lot better on offense last week -- they actually ran for 123-yards -- and I think the resurgence offense and the turnover prone Cousins will equal a second straight win for the Eagles. 

Oakland over CHICAGO (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): The Bears were shutout last week in Seattle, traded Jared Allen to the Panthers on Monday and there are rumors that Chicago is shopping RB Matt Forte and WR Alshon Jeffery. I doubt the Bears would trade their two best players, but things are not going well in Chicago. The Bears have given up 105 points through three games, which is dead last in the league, and they get to host the Oakland Raiders on Sunday who have put up 27 and 37 their last two games, respectively. How can you not take Oakland?

ATLANTA over Houston (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): I've been surprised by the Falcons so far this season and I believe the majority of the credit for their 3-0 start goes to rookie head coach Dan Quinn. Quinn -- the former defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks back-to-back Super Bowl teams -- has done a great job in his first three games and the Atlanta defense, which was dreadful last season, has looked a lot better early on. WR Julio Jones is on pace to break just about every receiving record with the start he's had -- 34 receptions for 440-yards and four touchdowns -- and the Texans will have their hands full trying to cover him. Wonder if J.J. Watt could cover Jones one-on-one? Atlanta stays undefeated. 

WR A.J. Green's two touchdowns in the
fourth quarter helped the Bengals
stay undefeated.
(The Cincinnati Enquirer/Sam Greene)

CINCINNATI over Kansas City (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Behind the Patriots and maybe the Packers, the Bengals have the most explosive offense in football. Cincinnati ranks second in the league in total offense and that is not good news for Kansas City. The Chiefs gave up 38 points and 448-yards of offense to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last week and it won't be any easier this week against the Bengals. QB Andy Dalton did turn the ball over twice, but he was clutch in the fourth quarter last week in Baltimore leading two scoring drives that ended with touchdown passes to WR A.J. Green. Dalton -- 20/32, 383-yards, 3 TD, 1 INT -- and Green -- 10 rec, 227-yards, 2 TD -- were unstoppable against the Ravens and the Chiefs are going to have their hands full. I expect a close game early and for the Bengals to pull away in the second half for the win. 

SAN DIEGO over Cleveland (Sunday, 4:05 P.M. ET, CBS): After Sunday's loss in Cleveland, well, I guess I should say during the game, Browns fans were calling for Johnny Manziel to take over at quarterback for Josh McCown. Manziel did lead the Browns to their only victory of the season, but head coach Mike Pettine has said that McCown is the starter. A quarterback controversy is never good at any level of football and until the Browns decide on a starter -- I still believe the true starter is not on the current roster -- Cleveland will continue to loss games, including Sunday's game in San Diego. 

Green Bay over SAN FRANCISCO (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, FOX): Two teams going in completely different directions. After New England, I think Green Bay is the best team in football. QB Aaron Rodgers has already thrown for 10 TD and not surprisingly, zero interceptions. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick on the other hand has thrown for two touchdowns and four interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns last week in Arizona. The 49ers are not going to win many games with Kaepernick playing like he is, but the defense has to play better too, they've given up 90 points in the last two games. For you fantasy football players out there, start every Packer you have this week as Green Bay will put up at least 30 in a win.

Cardinals safety Tyrann Mathieu had two interceptions
against the 49ers last week, returning one for a TD.
(Photo Courtesy of AZCardinals.com)

ARIZONA over St. Louis (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, FOX): Really like what I've seen from Arizona this year, but I know the critics out there are saying they've only beaten the Saints, Bears and 49ers, who have a combined 1-8 record. Not the greatest of competition, I admit, but the Cardinals are winning by an average score of 42-16. In the NFL that is impressive and is why I think Arizona -- whose next five games are against St. Louis, Detroit, Pittsburgh (without Roethlisberger), Baltimore and Cleveland -- will not be challenged until Week 10 when they go to Seattle. 

DENVER over Minnesota (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, FOX): Since Peyton Manning has been in Denver, it has been the offense that has carried the Broncos to success. That is not the case this year. 2015 has all been about the play of the Denver defense. LB DeMarcus Ware, team leader with three sacks, and CB Aqib Talib, team leader with two interceptions one of which was returned for a touchdown, are the veteran players leading the number one defense in the league. If Manning and the offense can score 20 points a game, that should be enough to win a lot of football games as Denver's defense is only giving up 16.3 points a game. On Sunday, the Broncos will have to stop Vikings RB Adrian Peterson who leads the league in rushing. Should be an good matchup and I like the Denver defense to make some plays to keep the Broncos undefeated. 

Dallas over NEW ORLEANS (Sunday, 8:30 P.M. ET, NBC): With QB Tony Romo being hurt, I really considered taking the Saints here, but I couldn't pull myself to do it. Looks like QB Drew Brees may play for the Saints after missing last week's game, which is good news, but the offense is just not the same. The Saints miss the likes of TE Jimmy Graham and RB Darren Sproles and the fact is there are just not enough weapons to get the ball too no matter who is at quarterback. Dallas has a decent defense and I think QB Brandon Weeden will play well enough to help the Cowboys get the win. 

SEATTLE over Detroit (Monday, 8:30 P.M. ET, ESPN): Not the game you want to be playing when you're 0-3. Monday night, in a hostile environment against a Seahawks team who is coming off a 26-0 shutout of the Bears. Seattle is about to get on a roll and no one is going to want to be in their way. Good luck, Detroit. This sets up a very interesting matchup next week in Cincinnati as the Seahawks visit the Bengals in what should be a terrific game. 

Bye: New England, Tennessee

Last Week: 14-2

Overall: 29-19 (.604)