NFL 2015: Week 6
I'm still in shock.
It's been a few days and I still cannot get over the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals came back from a 17-point deficit to beat the two-time defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks.
I've been watching the Bengals for over 20 years and I cannot remember a more frustrating and ultimately thrilling game in my life as a Cincinnati Bengals fan.
That was a game the Cincinnati Bengals never win. The typical Bengals would've folded like a cheap tent, but not this year's team. There is something about this team. They don't give up. They have more confidence in their ability, more than I've seen in years past, and they have a ton of very talented coaches and players, most notably their quarterback, Andy Dalton.
I'm going to make the argument that Andy Dalton should be the MVP of the league through five weeks. Hard to imagine, I know, but let's compare him to the other two MVP candidates, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Here are each player's stats through Week 5 according to NFL.com.
Italics indicate the leader in the group.
Brady has the edge in completion percentage, interceptions and QB Rating, Rodgers is leading in touchdown passes while Dalton leads the group in yards. Judging by those numbers -- and the sheer dominance of the Patriots through their first four games -- one would think Tom Brady is the MVP so far, but let's look at even more important stat. How do Dalton, Rodgers and Brady compare when the pressure is the greatest and the game matters most, in the fourth quarter.
Italics indicate the leader in the group.
Andy Dalton has the edge in yards, touchdowns and has almost a perfect QB Rating. Not to mention, Dalton already has two comeback wins to Rodgers one. Brady doesn't have any since the Patriots have been clobbering teams, but still, Dalton has performed better with the game on the line. Period.
With the Bengals outstanding performance, they've moved up to second in my AR Top 32 rankings. I still think New England has the best team, but Cincinnati is not far behind. Green Bay, Atlanta and Denver round out the top five.
It's been a few days and I still cannot get over the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals came back from a 17-point deficit to beat the two-time defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks.
I've been watching the Bengals for over 20 years and I cannot remember a more frustrating and ultimately thrilling game in my life as a Cincinnati Bengals fan.
That was a game the Cincinnati Bengals never win. The typical Bengals would've folded like a cheap tent, but not this year's team. There is something about this team. They don't give up. They have more confidence in their ability, more than I've seen in years past, and they have a ton of very talented coaches and players, most notably their quarterback, Andy Dalton.
I'm going to make the argument that Andy Dalton should be the MVP of the league through five weeks. Hard to imagine, I know, but let's compare him to the other two MVP candidates, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Here are each player's stats through Week 5 according to NFL.com.
Yards
|
CMP%
|
TD
|
INT
|
QB Rating
|
Record
|
|
Andy Dalton
|
1,518
|
67.5
|
11
|
2
|
115.6
|
5-0
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
1,236
|
70.6
|
13
|
2
|
117.4
|
5-0
|
Tom Brady
|
1,387
|
72.5
|
11
|
0
|
121.5
|
4-0
|
Brady has the edge in completion percentage, interceptions and QB Rating, Rodgers is leading in touchdown passes while Dalton leads the group in yards. Judging by those numbers -- and the sheer dominance of the Patriots through their first four games -- one would think Tom Brady is the MVP so far, but let's look at even more important stat. How do Dalton, Rodgers and Brady compare when the pressure is the greatest and the game matters most, in the fourth quarter.
Yards
|
CMP%
|
TD
|
INT
|
QB Rating
|
|
Andy Dalton
|
347
|
75.9
|
4
|
0
|
154.7
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
262
|
83.3
|
3
|
0
|
136.4
|
Tom Brady
|
318
|
73.5
|
2
|
0
|
121.9
|
Andy Dalton has the edge in yards, touchdowns and has almost a perfect QB Rating. Not to mention, Dalton already has two comeback wins to Rodgers one. Brady doesn't have any since the Patriots have been clobbering teams, but still, Dalton has performed better with the game on the line. Period.
A lot of football is left to be played and I'll continue to monitor Dalton, Rodgers and Brady's numbers the rest of the season, but my MVP for the quarter point of the season is Cincinnati Bengals QB Andy Dalton. Raise your hand if you foresaw that before the season started...yeah, me neither.
 |
| QB Andy Dalton has made a strong case for league MVP after leading the Bengals to five wins, including a 17-point comeback against the Seahawks, to start the season. (The Cincinnati Enquirer/Kareem Elgazzar) |
There's a logjam of teams at 2-3 (10 teams in fact), but there are eight teams with just one win. And then there are the Lions who remain winless. I've decided that each week, the team that is last in my power rankings will get the honor of being dubbed the "Wiping up the Rear" team of the week. This week, the inaugural honor goes to the Detroit Lions.
My complete power rankings can be found here.
Now for my picks for Week 6 in the NFL.
Week 6 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Atlanta over NEW ORLEANS (Thursday, 8:25 P.M. ET, CBS/NFL): I would usually favor the home team in these Thursday night games, but I like the Falcons here. Atlanta is averaging 32.4 points per game, third in the league, while New Orleans is giving up 28.6 point per game, T-29th in the league. Not good news for the Saints and I don't have enough confidence in the Saints defense too take them at home on Thursday night.
Cincinnati over BUFFALO (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Bills QB Tyrod Taylor is dealing with a knee injury that could keep him out of Sunday's game against the undefeated Bengals. If so, EJ Manuel will get the start at quarterback, but it won't matter. The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the leagues hottest teams and if Andy Dalton continues to play like he has, the Bengals will head into the bye week 6-0.
Chicago over DETROIT (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): The Lions will get their first win of the season eventually, but I don't think it will be on Sunday. QB Matthew Stafford was benched last week for throwing too many interceptions and if the Lions are to have a chance against the division rival Bears, he can't throw picks. Chicago has been playing better since QB Jay Cutler returned from injury and with the most versatile running back in the league, Matt Forte, I like the Bears to keep the Lions winless.
Denver over CLEVELAND (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense has not been playing like it once did, but that's alright with the way the Denver defense has been playing. The Broncos defense is leading the league in total defense and is tied for fourth with seven interceptions, two of which have been returned for touchdowns. Browns QB Josh McCown threw the ball 51 times for 457-yards last week and the Broncos secondary will be licking their chops if he throws that many times this week. Denver wins a close one on the road.
TENNESSEE over Miami (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Miami has a new coach and it's only Week 6. Never a good sign. Dan Campbell, a former NFL tight end and Dolphins tight end coach since 2011, will take over a Dolphins team in turmoil. Miami has registered just one sack on a defense that features both Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh. The Dolphins are second to last in the league in rushing, averaging a dismal 69.2-yards per game, and they play in a division with the Bills, Jets and Patriots. Good luck, Dan. Titans get the win at home.
MINNESOTA over Kansas City (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): The Chiefs weren't playing well with RB Jamaal Charles, so I can't imagine they'll be better without him. Charles tore the ACL in his right knee last week versus Chicago and is done for the year. He lead the team in rushing and was their third best receiver, so good like to QB Alex Smith and the Kansas City offense against Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense. Look for Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson to have a 100-yard day as well.
NY JETS over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Biggest problem I see for the Redskins is their running game. It baffles my mind that Washington has one of the best running backs in the league in Alfred Morris, yet, head coach Jay Gruden doesn't get him the football. Morris has carried the ball just 31 times the last three games. He should be getting 20-25 carries minimum. QB Kirk Cousins continues to throw interceptions, so why not pound the rock with Morris and the emerging back Matt Jones. I don't get it and Washington won't be able to run the ball this week against the Jets who get DT Sheldon Richardson back from a four-game suspension. Looks like it will be another loss for Washington on Sunday.
Arizona over PITTSBURGH (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): The Steelers snuck out of San Diego with a win, but they may not be so lucky against Arizona on Sunday. The Cardinals are averaging 42 points per game in their four wins and with the Steelers still missing QB Ben Roethlisberger I don't see them being able to score enough points to beat Arizona.
JACKSONVILLE over Houston (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Picking the Jaguars to win this one because, well, I'm not really sure. Neither Jacksonville nor Houston are very good and with the two teams a combined 2-8, all they're playing for is pride and draft position. I've learned that when picking games in the NFL, if you're unsure of a winner, pick the home team, so that's what I'll do here.
SEATTLE over Carolina (Sunday, 4:05 P.M. ET, FOX): Seahawks are in desperate need of a win after last week's debacle. If there is anything that can turn things around for Seattle, it's a home game. The Seahawks play much better when the 12th man is behind them and even with the Panthers coming off a bye, and undefeated for that matter, I like Seattle to bounce back.
GREEN BAY over San Diego (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Chargers lost on a Le'Veon Bell touchdown as time expired on Monday night and at 2-3, they're in trouble in the AFC playoff race. A trip to Lambeau against the undefeated Packers won't help matters. I like Rodgers and the Packers to win easily.
SAN FRANCISCO over Baltimore (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Hard to believe, but less than three years ago, these two teams were playing in Super Bowl XLVII. Fast forward to October 2015 and the Ravens and 49ers are a combined 2-8 and don't look they'll be playing in another Super Bowl this decade. This will be the second of two trips the Ravens make to the West Coast where they play back-to-back games -- they played at Denver and at Oakland to begin the season and stayed the full two weeks out West. One similarity these two teams have is that they both have played the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the 49ers played them, and lost, before Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. The Ravens got lucky and played the Steelers without Big Ben and won. With both teams not playing well, I'm going to stick with the home team and take the 49ers.
New England over INDIANAPOLIS (Sunday, 8:30 P.M. ET, NBC): At the start of the season, this game looked like one of the best we would see all year. However, the Colts have not been playing well and are only 3-2 because they have wins against division foes Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville. New England is a much tougher opponent and with or without QB Andrew Luck -- who has missed the last two games due to a shoulder injury -- I like Brady and the Patriots.
NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA (Monday, 8:30 P.M. ET, ESPN): The Giants next four games are against the Eagles, Cowboys, Saints and Buccaneers. With Tony Romo and Dez Bryant still hurt for the Cowboys and the Eagles and Redskins playing inconsistently, the Giants could just about put the NFC East to bed with four straight wins. New York has played very well the past three weeks and I expect the Eagles to give them a game, if their offense shows up, but I look for the Giants to prevail.
Bye: Dallas, St. Louis, Oakland, Tampa Bay
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 47-30 (.610)
Week 6 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Atlanta over NEW ORLEANS (Thursday, 8:25 P.M. ET, CBS/NFL): I would usually favor the home team in these Thursday night games, but I like the Falcons here. Atlanta is averaging 32.4 points per game, third in the league, while New Orleans is giving up 28.6 point per game, T-29th in the league. Not good news for the Saints and I don't have enough confidence in the Saints defense too take them at home on Thursday night.
Cincinnati over BUFFALO (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Bills QB Tyrod Taylor is dealing with a knee injury that could keep him out of Sunday's game against the undefeated Bengals. If so, EJ Manuel will get the start at quarterback, but it won't matter. The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the leagues hottest teams and if Andy Dalton continues to play like he has, the Bengals will head into the bye week 6-0.
Chicago over DETROIT (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): The Lions will get their first win of the season eventually, but I don't think it will be on Sunday. QB Matthew Stafford was benched last week for throwing too many interceptions and if the Lions are to have a chance against the division rival Bears, he can't throw picks. Chicago has been playing better since QB Jay Cutler returned from injury and with the most versatile running back in the league, Matt Forte, I like the Bears to keep the Lions winless.
 |
| Chris Harris Jr. returned an interception 74-yards for a touchdown last week against Oakland to help Denver stay undefeated. (Denver Broncos/Eric Lars Bakke) |
TENNESSEE over Miami (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Miami has a new coach and it's only Week 6. Never a good sign. Dan Campbell, a former NFL tight end and Dolphins tight end coach since 2011, will take over a Dolphins team in turmoil. Miami has registered just one sack on a defense that features both Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh. The Dolphins are second to last in the league in rushing, averaging a dismal 69.2-yards per game, and they play in a division with the Bills, Jets and Patriots. Good luck, Dan. Titans get the win at home.
MINNESOTA over Kansas City (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): The Chiefs weren't playing well with RB Jamaal Charles, so I can't imagine they'll be better without him. Charles tore the ACL in his right knee last week versus Chicago and is done for the year. He lead the team in rushing and was their third best receiver, so good like to QB Alex Smith and the Kansas City offense against Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense. Look for Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson to have a 100-yard day as well.
NY JETS over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Biggest problem I see for the Redskins is their running game. It baffles my mind that Washington has one of the best running backs in the league in Alfred Morris, yet, head coach Jay Gruden doesn't get him the football. Morris has carried the ball just 31 times the last three games. He should be getting 20-25 carries minimum. QB Kirk Cousins continues to throw interceptions, so why not pound the rock with Morris and the emerging back Matt Jones. I don't get it and Washington won't be able to run the ball this week against the Jets who get DT Sheldon Richardson back from a four-game suspension. Looks like it will be another loss for Washington on Sunday.
Arizona over PITTSBURGH (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): The Steelers snuck out of San Diego with a win, but they may not be so lucky against Arizona on Sunday. The Cardinals are averaging 42 points per game in their four wins and with the Steelers still missing QB Ben Roethlisberger I don't see them being able to score enough points to beat Arizona.
JACKSONVILLE over Houston (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Picking the Jaguars to win this one because, well, I'm not really sure. Neither Jacksonville nor Houston are very good and with the two teams a combined 2-8, all they're playing for is pride and draft position. I've learned that when picking games in the NFL, if you're unsure of a winner, pick the home team, so that's what I'll do here.
SEATTLE over Carolina (Sunday, 4:05 P.M. ET, FOX): Seahawks are in desperate need of a win after last week's debacle. If there is anything that can turn things around for Seattle, it's a home game. The Seahawks play much better when the 12th man is behind them and even with the Panthers coming off a bye, and undefeated for that matter, I like Seattle to bounce back.
GREEN BAY over San Diego (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Chargers lost on a Le'Veon Bell touchdown as time expired on Monday night and at 2-3, they're in trouble in the AFC playoff race. A trip to Lambeau against the undefeated Packers won't help matters. I like Rodgers and the Packers to win easily.
SAN FRANCISCO over Baltimore (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Hard to believe, but less than three years ago, these two teams were playing in Super Bowl XLVII. Fast forward to October 2015 and the Ravens and 49ers are a combined 2-8 and don't look they'll be playing in another Super Bowl this decade. This will be the second of two trips the Ravens make to the West Coast where they play back-to-back games -- they played at Denver and at Oakland to begin the season and stayed the full two weeks out West. One similarity these two teams have is that they both have played the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, the 49ers played them, and lost, before Ben Roethlisberger got hurt. The Ravens got lucky and played the Steelers without Big Ben and won. With both teams not playing well, I'm going to stick with the home team and take the 49ers.
New England over INDIANAPOLIS (Sunday, 8:30 P.M. ET, NBC): At the start of the season, this game looked like one of the best we would see all year. However, the Colts have not been playing well and are only 3-2 because they have wins against division foes Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville. New England is a much tougher opponent and with or without QB Andrew Luck -- who has missed the last two games due to a shoulder injury -- I like Brady and the Patriots.
NY Giants over PHILADELPHIA (Monday, 8:30 P.M. ET, ESPN): The Giants next four games are against the Eagles, Cowboys, Saints and Buccaneers. With Tony Romo and Dez Bryant still hurt for the Cowboys and the Eagles and Redskins playing inconsistently, the Giants could just about put the NFC East to bed with four straight wins. New York has played very well the past three weeks and I expect the Eagles to give them a game, if their offense shows up, but I look for the Giants to prevail.
Bye: Dallas, St. Louis, Oakland, Tampa Bay
Last Week: 9-5
Overall: 47-30 (.610)
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