NFL 2015: Week 5 Picks
Week 4 was in one word...great.
We had nine games decided by less than a touchdown, including two games that went to overtime.
The Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Falcons and Panthers stayed undefeated while the Cardinals lost their first game of the year to the Rams.
We also had the Bears, Ravens and Saints get their first win of the year leaving the Lions as the lone winless team. Detroit might have won in Seattle on Monday night had it not be for an obvious blown call at the end of the game. You can't purposely bat the ball out of the end zone. "C'mon Man!" Sorry, Detroit.
New to the AR Top 32 this week are comments. A new addition that you can expect each and every week. Here are the latest rankings.
With their loss to the Rams, the Cardinals fell out of my top five and were replaced with the undefeated Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots are still number one, followed by the Packers, Bengals, Broncos and Falcons. In the basement, we have the Bears, 49ers, Lions, Jaguars and Buccaneers. Chicago is trending up, which a lot better than where they were last week at #32 in the rankings.
More changes to come, I'm sure, after this week's slate of games.
Now my picks for Week 5.
Week 5 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Indianapolis over HOUSTON (Thursday, 8:25 P.M. ET, CBS/NFL): Bad new for the Colts, Andrew Luck, who missed last week's game due to a shoulder injury, will not play Thursday night and Matt Hasselbeck will make his second straight start. Good news for Indianapolis though is that they are playing a Houston team who is 1-3 and coming off a 48-21 loss to Atlanta. With it being a short week and a division game, I expect a close score and the Colts to prevail even without Luck.
KANSAS CITY over Chicago (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): The Bears finally got their first win of the season and although I don't see them winning many more, it's always nice to get your first win. They have a chance of knocking off the Chiefs at Arrowhead as I was not impressed with what I saw last week against the Bengals. The Kansas City secondary was shredded by Andy Dalton and I thought the offense got away from the run too quickly as RB Jamaal Charles was averaging 6.8-yards a carry. Still don't have a whole lot of faith in Jay Cutler, so I'll stick with the home team and take the Chiefs.
CINCINNATI over Seattle (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Question: The best offense in the NFL belongs too? No, it's not New England and no it's not Green Bay, it's Cincinnati. The Bengals rank second in total offense and are scoring the fourth most points per game at 30.2. Yes, I know the Patriots have Brady, Edelman and Gronk, but they don't have the rushing attack of the Bengals. Yes, the Packers have Rodgers, Cobb, James Jones and Eddie Lacy, but I believe the Bengals have more weapons and a better offensive line. From top to bottom, the Cincinnati Bengals have the best offense in football. Period.
The Cincinnati offensive line is better than both Green Bay and New England, they have two solid running backs in Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard and have four receiving threats in A.J. Green, Mohammed Sanu, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert. Plus, Andy Dalton looks like Brady or Rodgers the way he's been playing through four weeks. With the way offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has been getting guys involved and coming up with creative schemes, I would take the Bengals offense over the Packers and Patriots right now. The Legion of Boom will have their hands full with the offensive juggernaut in Cincinnati and I like the Bengals.
ATLANTA over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): It's pretty simple, when Kirk Cousins plays well the Redskins win. When he plays poorly, they lose. In Washington's two wins this season, Cousins has two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a QBR of 74.7. In Washington's two losses, Cousins has thrown two touchdowns, four interceptions and has a QBR of 39.0. With the inconsistent play of Cousins and the game being in Atlanta, I like the Falcons.
Jacksonville over TAMPA BAY (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Not exactly a great matchup here. Both the Jaguars and Buccaneers, in fact, all three teams in the state of Florida for that matter, are not playing well. I would give Jacksonville the advantage over all of them, however, because they did beat Miami and they've played tougher competition in Indianapolis, New England and Carolina. Bucs QB Jameis Winston is tied for the league lead in interceptions with seven and until he stops turning the ball over, Tampa Bay will continue to lose games. I'll take the Jaguars in this one.
New Orleans over PHILADELPHIA (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): If the Bengals have the best offense in football than the Eagles might have the worst. Hard to believe, I know, but the Eagles have been so unimpressive on the offense side of the ball this year. It's shocking. We are only four games in, but QB Sam Bradford is not playing well, RB DeMarco Murray doesn't fit into the system whatsoever and they are barely on the field. The Eagles are dead last in time of possession with an average of 22:48, which is almost three minutes less than the next closest team. I don't care how much conditioning you do, your defense is going to be gassed being on the field for an average of 37:52 per game. Things have to change in Philadelphia or Chip Kelly might be headed back to college. I'll take Drew Brees and the Saints in Philly on Sunday.
BALTIMORE over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Thanks to former Steelers kicker, Josh Scobee, the Ravens finally have one in the win column. Baltimore still has problems, but if they are to win games, they need to run the football. RB Justin Forsett ran for 150-yards against the Steelers after only running for 124-yards the previous three games. Run the ball, Baltimore, and good things will happen, including a win over division rival Cleveland.
GREEN BAY over St. Louis (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Rams have beaten the Cardinals and Seahawks, but are still 2-2. They seem to play well against good teams, so I like their chances in Green Bay. However, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers are almost unbeatable at home.
Buffalo over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): I mentioned it last week and in my AR Top 32 rankings and I'll say it again. QB Tyrod Taylor will be the life and death of this team. In wins, Taylor has four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a QBR of 91.8. In losses, he's thrown four touchdowns, four interceptions and has a QBR of 24.6. Tyrod Taylor played well in Weeks 1 and 3, while playing poorly in Weeks 2 and 4. Seems to be a trend here, so I'll say since this is an odd week, he'll play well and the Bills will win.
Arizona over DETROIT (Sunday, 4:05 P.M. ET, FOX): Tough break for the Lions on Monday night and things went get any easier with the Cardinals coming to town. Arizona hit a minor bump in the road last week in losing to the Rams, but don't expect a losing streak for the Cardinals. Do expect the Lions losing streak to continue, however.
New England over DALLAS (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Patriots are coming off a bye, Cowboys are coming off there second straight loss and still don't have Tony Romo or Dez Bryant healthy. Patriots win by double digits.
Denver over OAKLAND (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): As Lee Corso would say, "closer than the experts think." The Raiders are an improved team and QB Derek Carr and rookie WR Amari Cooper will give an excellent Broncos defense all they can handle. Denver though does have an excellent defense -- they've given up only 69-points this season, second fewest in the league -- and they have Peyton Manning, albeit an aging Peyton Manning. Raiders will keep it close, but I look for the Broncos to win another close game.
NY GIANTS over San Francisco (Sunday, 8:30 P.M. ET, NBC): The Giants were two bad fourth quarters away from being 4-0, but at 2-2 they are in great shape in the NFC East. Dallas is 2-2 and without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant for several more weeks. The Redskins are 2-2, but have not played well consistently to make me think they are a contender. And the Eagles are 1-3 and look awful. With that being said and a Sunday night game against the inept 49ers, Giants fans should be very happy. One more thing, did 49ers head coach Jim Tomsula fart at his press conference? I say without question he did, but you be the judge on what the media is calling Fartgate.
SAN DIEGO over Pittsburgh (Monday, 8:30 P.M. ET, ESPN): Even though the Chargers have barely won their only two home games of the season, a win is a win. With QB Ben Roethlisberger still hurt and the Monday night contest being in San Diego, I like the Chargers. Still haven't seen enough from Michael Vick to pick the Steelers in this one.
Bye: Carolina, Miami, Minnesota, NY Jets
Last Week: 9-6
Overall: 38-25 (.603)
We had nine games decided by less than a touchdown, including two games that went to overtime.
The Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Falcons and Panthers stayed undefeated while the Cardinals lost their first game of the year to the Rams.
We also had the Bears, Ravens and Saints get their first win of the year leaving the Lions as the lone winless team. Detroit might have won in Seattle on Monday night had it not be for an obvious blown call at the end of the game. You can't purposely bat the ball out of the end zone. "C'mon Man!" Sorry, Detroit.
New to the AR Top 32 this week are comments. A new addition that you can expect each and every week. Here are the latest rankings.
With their loss to the Rams, the Cardinals fell out of my top five and were replaced with the undefeated Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots are still number one, followed by the Packers, Bengals, Broncos and Falcons. In the basement, we have the Bears, 49ers, Lions, Jaguars and Buccaneers. Chicago is trending up, which a lot better than where they were last week at #32 in the rankings.
More changes to come, I'm sure, after this week's slate of games.
Now my picks for Week 5.
Week 5 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
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| QB Matt Hasselbeck will once again be called upon to fill in for the injured Andrew Luck. (Brian Spurlock/USA TODAY Sports) |
KANSAS CITY over Chicago (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): The Bears finally got their first win of the season and although I don't see them winning many more, it's always nice to get your first win. They have a chance of knocking off the Chiefs at Arrowhead as I was not impressed with what I saw last week against the Bengals. The Kansas City secondary was shredded by Andy Dalton and I thought the offense got away from the run too quickly as RB Jamaal Charles was averaging 6.8-yards a carry. Still don't have a whole lot of faith in Jay Cutler, so I'll stick with the home team and take the Chiefs.
CINCINNATI over Seattle (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): Question: The best offense in the NFL belongs too? No, it's not New England and no it's not Green Bay, it's Cincinnati. The Bengals rank second in total offense and are scoring the fourth most points per game at 30.2. Yes, I know the Patriots have Brady, Edelman and Gronk, but they don't have the rushing attack of the Bengals. Yes, the Packers have Rodgers, Cobb, James Jones and Eddie Lacy, but I believe the Bengals have more weapons and a better offensive line. From top to bottom, the Cincinnati Bengals have the best offense in football. Period.
The Cincinnati offensive line is better than both Green Bay and New England, they have two solid running backs in Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard and have four receiving threats in A.J. Green, Mohammed Sanu, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert. Plus, Andy Dalton looks like Brady or Rodgers the way he's been playing through four weeks. With the way offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has been getting guys involved and coming up with creative schemes, I would take the Bengals offense over the Packers and Patriots right now. The Legion of Boom will have their hands full with the offensive juggernaut in Cincinnati and I like the Bengals.
ATLANTA over Washington (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): It's pretty simple, when Kirk Cousins plays well the Redskins win. When he plays poorly, they lose. In Washington's two wins this season, Cousins has two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a QBR of 74.7. In Washington's two losses, Cousins has thrown two touchdowns, four interceptions and has a QBR of 39.0. With the inconsistent play of Cousins and the game being in Atlanta, I like the Falcons.
Jacksonville over TAMPA BAY (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Not exactly a great matchup here. Both the Jaguars and Buccaneers, in fact, all three teams in the state of Florida for that matter, are not playing well. I would give Jacksonville the advantage over all of them, however, because they did beat Miami and they've played tougher competition in Indianapolis, New England and Carolina. Bucs QB Jameis Winston is tied for the league lead in interceptions with seven and until he stops turning the ball over, Tampa Bay will continue to lose games. I'll take the Jaguars in this one.
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| QB Drew Brees returned from injury and lead the Saints to their first win of the season. (Michael C. Hebert/New Orleans Saints) |
New Orleans over PHILADELPHIA (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, FOX): If the Bengals have the best offense in football than the Eagles might have the worst. Hard to believe, I know, but the Eagles have been so unimpressive on the offense side of the ball this year. It's shocking. We are only four games in, but QB Sam Bradford is not playing well, RB DeMarco Murray doesn't fit into the system whatsoever and they are barely on the field. The Eagles are dead last in time of possession with an average of 22:48, which is almost three minutes less than the next closest team. I don't care how much conditioning you do, your defense is going to be gassed being on the field for an average of 37:52 per game. Things have to change in Philadelphia or Chip Kelly might be headed back to college. I'll take Drew Brees and the Saints in Philly on Sunday.
BALTIMORE over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Thanks to former Steelers kicker, Josh Scobee, the Ravens finally have one in the win column. Baltimore still has problems, but if they are to win games, they need to run the football. RB Justin Forsett ran for 150-yards against the Steelers after only running for 124-yards the previous three games. Run the ball, Baltimore, and good things will happen, including a win over division rival Cleveland.
GREEN BAY over St. Louis (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): Rams have beaten the Cardinals and Seahawks, but are still 2-2. They seem to play well against good teams, so I like their chances in Green Bay. However, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers are almost unbeatable at home.
Buffalo over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1:00 P.M. ET, CBS): I mentioned it last week and in my AR Top 32 rankings and I'll say it again. QB Tyrod Taylor will be the life and death of this team. In wins, Taylor has four touchdowns, zero interceptions and a QBR of 91.8. In losses, he's thrown four touchdowns, four interceptions and has a QBR of 24.6. Tyrod Taylor played well in Weeks 1 and 3, while playing poorly in Weeks 2 and 4. Seems to be a trend here, so I'll say since this is an odd week, he'll play well and the Bills will win.
Arizona over DETROIT (Sunday, 4:05 P.M. ET, FOX): Tough break for the Lions on Monday night and things went get any easier with the Cardinals coming to town. Arizona hit a minor bump in the road last week in losing to the Rams, but don't expect a losing streak for the Cardinals. Do expect the Lions losing streak to continue, however.
New England over DALLAS (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): Patriots are coming off a bye, Cowboys are coming off there second straight loss and still don't have Tony Romo or Dez Bryant healthy. Patriots win by double digits.
Denver over OAKLAND (Sunday, 4:25 P.M. ET, CBS): As Lee Corso would say, "closer than the experts think." The Raiders are an improved team and QB Derek Carr and rookie WR Amari Cooper will give an excellent Broncos defense all they can handle. Denver though does have an excellent defense -- they've given up only 69-points this season, second fewest in the league -- and they have Peyton Manning, albeit an aging Peyton Manning. Raiders will keep it close, but I look for the Broncos to win another close game.
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| Eli Manning and the Giants are all smiles after having won two straight and are tied for first in the NFC East. (Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) |
SAN DIEGO over Pittsburgh (Monday, 8:30 P.M. ET, ESPN): Even though the Chargers have barely won their only two home games of the season, a win is a win. With QB Ben Roethlisberger still hurt and the Monday night contest being in San Diego, I like the Chargers. Still haven't seen enough from Michael Vick to pick the Steelers in this one.
Bye: Carolina, Miami, Minnesota, NY Jets
Last Week: 9-6
Overall: 38-25 (.603)
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