NFL 2015: Week 8 Picks
Week 7 didn't have the most exciting games in the NFL this season, but don't expect another dull week.
Three of the NFL's undefeated teams return to action after byes last week. The Packers visit the Broncos in a huge game in Denver. The Bengals are back with a trip to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers and the return of Ben Roethlisberger.
As for the other two undefeated teams, the Panthers play a disappointing Colts team on Monday night and the Patriots kickoff Week 8 with a visit from the resurgent Dolphins on Thursday night.
A lot to get too, so let's get started with the MVP race, because it's never to early too be talking about end of the year awards.
MVP Race
Not much has changed in the MVP race with Aaron Rodgers and Andy Dalton on byes last week, but Tom Brady did increase his lead, in my opinion, with a terrific performance against the Jets. Brady threw the ball 54 times for 355-yards on Sunday and was the team's leading rusher with 15-yards and a touchdown.
What Tom Brady is doing, at 38-years old for that matter, is unbelievable. Actually, let me refrain from that last statement. It's actually not all that surprising. Brady is arguably the best quarterback to ever play the game and he's not doing anything different than he normally does. He's putting up big numbers and the Patriots are dominating teams. Just look at his stats through six games below compared to Rodgers and Dalton.
Italics indicate leader in the group
Italics indicate leader in the group
With all that being said, Brady is the MVP of the league...for now, anyways. Dalton or Rodgers could still make a run at him and don't forget about Falcons RB Devonta Freeman.
Freeman was the NFC's Player of the Month in October and he currently leads the league in rushing yards (621) and rushing touchdowns (9). Atlanta is 6-1 and if they continue to play well and Freeman continues to put up monster rushing numbers, he'll be in the MVP conversation too.
Power Rankings
Just like the MVP Race, not much movement in the power rankings this week with Cincinnati, Denver and Green Bay on byes, in fact, I have the same top ten as I did last week.
Patriots, Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Panthers, Cardinals, Falcons, Jets, Vikings and Steelers remain in my top ten. I would say that the top four teams have distanced themselves from the pack, but that will change after this weekend. Green Bay visits Denver on Sunday, so we could have a new top five next week.
As of the bottom of the rankings, the Tennessee Titans are this week's Wiping of the Rear team of the week. The Lions, Ravens, Buccaneers and Texans aren't far behind as all four played rather poorly last week.
Click here for my complete power rankings.
Now for my Week 8 picks.
Week 8 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
NEW ENGLAND over Miami (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS): In the last two weeks, the Miami Dolphins are 2-0, have scored 82 points, while accumulating 937-yards of total offense. Now, that was against the Titans and Texans, so not sure how much stock you can put in those wins. However, there is no doubt that since Joe Philbin was let go as head coach, the Dolphins have played better. We will find out just how for real the Miami Dolphins are on Thursday when they travel to New England and take on the Patriots. Don't be surprised if the Dolphins make it a game, but I'm still going with the Patriots in this one.
KANSAS CITY over DETROIT in London (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX): Second straight week that NFL fans will get to enjoy football, bright and early on Sunday morning. Unfortunately, for football fans and the fans over in London, they get to see the Lions (1-6) and Chiefs (2-5). Both teams have looked appalling at times this season and neither team will win the hearts of the English football fans on Sunday. I'm going with the Chiefs in the third and final game from London this season because their defense, which is much better than the Lions.
ATLANTA over Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Atlanta is 6-1 and 5th in the league in rushing (129.6 YPG) due in large part to the emergence of RB Devonta Freeman. Since Freeman become the starter in Week 3, he has rushed for 578-yards, eight touchdowns, and has caught 27 passes for 247-yards and a touchdown. Tampa Bay can't hold a lead -- they blew a 24 point lead last week in Washington and have blown three leads total early in the season -- but that won't matter this Sunday as the Falcons will lead the entire game and get the win.
Arizona over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Expect the Cardinals to score a lot of points in Cleveland on Sunday. Arizona is averaging 32 PPG while Cleveland gives up 26 PPG. I would be stunned if the Browns upset the Cardinals here, a team that I believe, is one of the best in the league.
ST. LOUIS over San Francisco (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Best part of this game will be the Rams uniforms. The Rams will be wearing their yellow and royal blue throwback uniforms, which I think they should back to permanently. They look a lot better than their current uniforms and perhaps they'll make the switch back if the Rams end up in Los Angeles. As for the game, I like St. Louis and RB Todd Gruley, who has ran wild the last three weeks, rushing for 433-yards and two touchdowns.
NY Giants over NEW ORLEANS (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I almost took the Saints here with the game being in New Orleans, but overall I think the Giants have a better team. New York was two bad fourth quarters away from being 6-1 and with games at the Saints (3-4) and at the Buccaneers (2-5) the next two weeks, the Giants could be 6-3 when the play the Patriots in Week 11. As long as the Giants don't turn the ball over, I think they'll beat Drew Brees and the Saints at home.
Minnesota over CHICAGO (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The number one priority for the Bears on Sunday will be stopping RB Adrian Peterson. According to ESPN, Peterson has 1,396-yards and 14 touchdowns in 12 games against Chicago. Not good news for a Bears team that gives up 124.8 YPG on the ground. Look for Peterson to run all over the Bears as the Vikings get the win.
BALTIMORE over San Diego (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): This game should be dubbed the Disappointment Bowl. Baltimore and San Diego both have talented rosters and yet, they are a combined 3-11 and are in last, or tied for last place, in their respective divisions. The key for the Chargers in this one will be to start the game on the right foot. San Diego has been outscored 108-59 in the first half this season. Baltimore has been in every game this season, losing by 6, 4, 4, 3, 5 and 8-points. I think this will be another close game for the Ravens; only they'll come out ahead. Ravens win by three and hold off a late charge by Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who will throw for over 300-yards.
Cincinnati over PITTSBURGH (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): Big game in the Steel City on Sunday. The Bengals, fresh off a bye, roll into Pittsburgh with an unblemished record and are playing like, arguably, the best team in football. The Steelers are coming off a loss to Kansas City and are looking up at the Bengals in the division. Good news for Steelers fans though is that Ben Roethlisberger should be back at quarterback. Pittsburgh managed to go 2-2 since Big Ben got hurt against the Rams and is still in good shape as far as the playoffs are concerned.
The key to this game will be Bengals QB Andy Dalton. In eight career games against the Steelers, Dalton is 2-6 (1-3 at Pittsburgh), with 11 touchdowns, seven interceptions, a 58.1 CMP%, QB Rating of 79.2 and is currently on a three-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. This is a different Andy Dalton, however, in 2015. I think with the talent around him, especially the running back duo of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, he and the Bengals will prevail in a close game on Sunday.
HOUSTON over Tennessee (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): At one point in Houston's game last week in Miami, the Texans had zero yards of offense, while the Dolphins had 35 points! That's right. Read it again. One of the most amazing NFL stats you will ever see. With that being said, of course, I'm taking...the Texans in this one. Houston may be bad, but the Titans just might be worst. If Houston wins Sunday, they'll be at worst, one game out of first. Yeah, another amazing stat, which I'm afraid to say is 100% true.
NY Jets over OAKLAND (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): No one had this as a marquee game in Week 8 when the season started, but the Jets and Raiders are two of the best teams in the AFC. New York has been led to a 4-2 record by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and a defense that gives up just 17.5 PPG. Both of the Jets losses have been by a touchdown or less and I expect to see them in the playoffs come January. The Raiders too, have played well and if you don't count their 20-point loss to the Bengals in Week 1, they're 3-2 and have lost to the Broncos and Bears by a combined eight points. I don't know if the Raiders will be able to sustain success for the rest of the season, but if they can get to 8-8 or 9-7, that just might be good enough to get into the playoffs. Sunday's game in Oakland will be close and I look for the Jets to prevail.
Seattle over DALLAS (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): The Cowboys can't seem to find a way to get a win without Tony Romo. Brandon Weeden and now, Matt Cassel, are a combined 0-4 with only three touchdown passes and five interceptions. WR Dez Bryant may be back this week, which will help the offense, problem is, the Seahawks are in town. Seattle played much better last Thursday in San Francisco, limiting the 49ers to just 142-yards of total offense, and I think they'll carry the momentum into Dallas. Seahawks defense gets three turnovers and leads Seattle to a win.
Green Bay over DENVER (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Big game in the Mile High City on Sunday night. The Packers and Broncos are both undefeated and are led by future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, only difference is Aaron Rodgers is playing much better than Peyton Manning at the moment. Manning is tied for the league lead with 10 interceptions and has not played well in Denver's last three games, throwing a combined two touchdowns and seven interceptions. However, the Broncos are still undefeated, thanks in large part to their defense, who ranks first in total defense, first against the pass and fourth against the run. They will have their hands full with a Green Bay offense that averages 364.2 YPG and scores 27.3 PPG. I look for the Broncos defense to keep them in the game, but expect a few Manning turnovers to seal a win for the Packers.
CAROLINA over Indianapolis (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Pretty simple here. The Colts can only beat teams within their division and last I checked the Panthers are in the South, just happens to be the NFC South. The Colts have been outscored 108-69 in non-division games this season, while outscoring divisional opponents 78-66. I don't like anything I've seen from Indianapolis this season, outside the division and inside the division for that matter, and I'm going to roll with Cam Newton and Carolina on Monday Night Football.
Bye: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Washington
Last Week: 10-4
Overall: 64-41 (.610)
Three of the NFL's undefeated teams return to action after byes last week. The Packers visit the Broncos in a huge game in Denver. The Bengals are back with a trip to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers and the return of Ben Roethlisberger.
As for the other two undefeated teams, the Panthers play a disappointing Colts team on Monday night and the Patriots kickoff Week 8 with a visit from the resurgent Dolphins on Thursday night.
A lot to get too, so let's get started with the MVP race, because it's never to early too be talking about end of the year awards.
MVP Race
 |
| Brady not only had a rushing touchdown this past Sunday, but he lead the Patriots in rushing. (Jim Rogash/Getty Images) |
What Tom Brady is doing, at 38-years old for that matter, is unbelievable. Actually, let me refrain from that last statement. It's actually not all that surprising. Brady is arguably the best quarterback to ever play the game and he's not doing anything different than he normally does. He's putting up big numbers and the Patriots are dominating teams. Just look at his stats through six games below compared to Rodgers and Dalton.
Regular Season
|
Yards
|
CMP%
|
TD
|
INT
|
QB Rating
|
Record
|
Andy
Dalton
|
1,761
|
67.4
|
14
|
2
|
116.1
|
6-0
|
Aaron
Rodgers
|
1,491
|
68.1
|
14
|
2
|
115.9
|
6-0
|
Tom Brady
|
2,054
|
68.9
|
16
|
1
|
113.2
|
6-0
|
Not to mention, in the fourth quarter last week with the Patriots trailing to the Jets, Brady was 14 of 17 and threw two touchdown passes to lead the comeback.
Fourth Quarter
|
Yards
|
CMP%
|
TD
|
INT
|
QB Rating
|
Comebacks
|
Andy
Dalton
|
371
|
74.3
|
4
|
0
|
146.2
|
2
|
Aaron
Rodgers
|
332
|
77.8
|
3
|
0
|
132.9
|
1
|
Tom Brady
|
481
|
75.9
|
5
|
0
|
133.3
|
1
|
With all that being said, Brady is the MVP of the league...for now, anyways. Dalton or Rodgers could still make a run at him and don't forget about Falcons RB Devonta Freeman.
Freeman was the NFC's Player of the Month in October and he currently leads the league in rushing yards (621) and rushing touchdowns (9). Atlanta is 6-1 and if they continue to play well and Freeman continues to put up monster rushing numbers, he'll be in the MVP conversation too.
Power Rankings
Just like the MVP Race, not much movement in the power rankings this week with Cincinnati, Denver and Green Bay on byes, in fact, I have the same top ten as I did last week.
Patriots, Bengals, Packers, Broncos, Panthers, Cardinals, Falcons, Jets, Vikings and Steelers remain in my top ten. I would say that the top four teams have distanced themselves from the pack, but that will change after this weekend. Green Bay visits Denver on Sunday, so we could have a new top five next week.
As of the bottom of the rankings, the Tennessee Titans are this week's Wiping of the Rear team of the week. The Lions, Ravens, Buccaneers and Texans aren't far behind as all four played rather poorly last week.
Click here for my complete power rankings.
Now for my Week 8 picks.
Week 8 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
NEW ENGLAND over Miami (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS): In the last two weeks, the Miami Dolphins are 2-0, have scored 82 points, while accumulating 937-yards of total offense. Now, that was against the Titans and Texans, so not sure how much stock you can put in those wins. However, there is no doubt that since Joe Philbin was let go as head coach, the Dolphins have played better. We will find out just how for real the Miami Dolphins are on Thursday when they travel to New England and take on the Patriots. Don't be surprised if the Dolphins make it a game, but I'm still going with the Patriots in this one.
KANSAS CITY over DETROIT in London (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, FOX): Second straight week that NFL fans will get to enjoy football, bright and early on Sunday morning. Unfortunately, for football fans and the fans over in London, they get to see the Lions (1-6) and Chiefs (2-5). Both teams have looked appalling at times this season and neither team will win the hearts of the English football fans on Sunday. I'm going with the Chiefs in the third and final game from London this season because their defense, which is much better than the Lions.
ATLANTA over Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Atlanta is 6-1 and 5th in the league in rushing (129.6 YPG) due in large part to the emergence of RB Devonta Freeman. Since Freeman become the starter in Week 3, he has rushed for 578-yards, eight touchdowns, and has caught 27 passes for 247-yards and a touchdown. Tampa Bay can't hold a lead -- they blew a 24 point lead last week in Washington and have blown three leads total early in the season -- but that won't matter this Sunday as the Falcons will lead the entire game and get the win.
Arizona over Cleveland (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Expect the Cardinals to score a lot of points in Cleveland on Sunday. Arizona is averaging 32 PPG while Cleveland gives up 26 PPG. I would be stunned if the Browns upset the Cardinals here, a team that I believe, is one of the best in the league.
ST. LOUIS over San Francisco (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): Best part of this game will be the Rams uniforms. The Rams will be wearing their yellow and royal blue throwback uniforms, which I think they should back to permanently. They look a lot better than their current uniforms and perhaps they'll make the switch back if the Rams end up in Los Angeles. As for the game, I like St. Louis and RB Todd Gruley, who has ran wild the last three weeks, rushing for 433-yards and two touchdowns.
NY Giants over NEW ORLEANS (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): I almost took the Saints here with the game being in New Orleans, but overall I think the Giants have a better team. New York was two bad fourth quarters away from being 6-1 and with games at the Saints (3-4) and at the Buccaneers (2-5) the next two weeks, the Giants could be 6-3 when the play the Patriots in Week 11. As long as the Giants don't turn the ball over, I think they'll beat Drew Brees and the Saints at home.
Minnesota over CHICAGO (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX): The number one priority for the Bears on Sunday will be stopping RB Adrian Peterson. According to ESPN, Peterson has 1,396-yards and 14 touchdowns in 12 games against Chicago. Not good news for a Bears team that gives up 124.8 YPG on the ground. Look for Peterson to run all over the Bears as the Vikings get the win.
BALTIMORE over San Diego (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): This game should be dubbed the Disappointment Bowl. Baltimore and San Diego both have talented rosters and yet, they are a combined 3-11 and are in last, or tied for last place, in their respective divisions. The key for the Chargers in this one will be to start the game on the right foot. San Diego has been outscored 108-59 in the first half this season. Baltimore has been in every game this season, losing by 6, 4, 4, 3, 5 and 8-points. I think this will be another close game for the Ravens; only they'll come out ahead. Ravens win by three and hold off a late charge by Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who will throw for over 300-yards.
 |
| Running backs Giovani Bernard (25) and Jeremy Hill have ran for a combined 659-yards and seven touchdowns this season for the undefeated Bengals. (The Cincinnati Enquirer/Kareem Elgazzar) |
The key to this game will be Bengals QB Andy Dalton. In eight career games against the Steelers, Dalton is 2-6 (1-3 at Pittsburgh), with 11 touchdowns, seven interceptions, a 58.1 CMP%, QB Rating of 79.2 and is currently on a three-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. This is a different Andy Dalton, however, in 2015. I think with the talent around him, especially the running back duo of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, he and the Bengals will prevail in a close game on Sunday.
HOUSTON over Tennessee (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS): At one point in Houston's game last week in Miami, the Texans had zero yards of offense, while the Dolphins had 35 points! That's right. Read it again. One of the most amazing NFL stats you will ever see. With that being said, of course, I'm taking...the Texans in this one. Houston may be bad, but the Titans just might be worst. If Houston wins Sunday, they'll be at worst, one game out of first. Yeah, another amazing stat, which I'm afraid to say is 100% true.
NY Jets over OAKLAND (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): No one had this as a marquee game in Week 8 when the season started, but the Jets and Raiders are two of the best teams in the AFC. New York has been led to a 4-2 record by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and a defense that gives up just 17.5 PPG. Both of the Jets losses have been by a touchdown or less and I expect to see them in the playoffs come January. The Raiders too, have played well and if you don't count their 20-point loss to the Bengals in Week 1, they're 3-2 and have lost to the Broncos and Bears by a combined eight points. I don't know if the Raiders will be able to sustain success for the rest of the season, but if they can get to 8-8 or 9-7, that just might be good enough to get into the playoffs. Sunday's game in Oakland will be close and I look for the Jets to prevail.
Seattle over DALLAS (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): The Cowboys can't seem to find a way to get a win without Tony Romo. Brandon Weeden and now, Matt Cassel, are a combined 0-4 with only three touchdown passes and five interceptions. WR Dez Bryant may be back this week, which will help the offense, problem is, the Seahawks are in town. Seattle played much better last Thursday in San Francisco, limiting the 49ers to just 142-yards of total offense, and I think they'll carry the momentum into Dallas. Seahawks defense gets three turnovers and leads Seattle to a win.
 |
| The Broncos and Packers are both undefeated, but only one can remain unbeaten after Sunday night's showdown in Denver. (Getty Images) |
CAROLINA over Indianapolis (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): Pretty simple here. The Colts can only beat teams within their division and last I checked the Panthers are in the South, just happens to be the NFC South. The Colts have been outscored 108-69 in non-division games this season, while outscoring divisional opponents 78-66. I don't like anything I've seen from Indianapolis this season, outside the division and inside the division for that matter, and I'm going to roll with Cam Newton and Carolina on Monday Night Football.
Bye: Buffalo, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Washington
Last Week: 10-4
Overall: 64-41 (.610)
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