Week 14 Picks
The push for the playoffs has officially began. With four weeks remaining the playoff picture is as cloudy as a typical day in Seattle. Here's what we do know:
-Green Bay, Denver, New England and Indianapolis, barring an unprecedented collapse, will make the playoffs.
-Philadelphia and Cincinnati control their own destinies. Both have three divisional games remaining and another game against a potential playoff team. Win all four, or at least three, and both will be in the playoffs.
-Oakland is the only team officially eliminated from playoff contention.
-Tennessee, Jacksonville and the NY Jets are basically out of it in the AFC.
-Washington, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, Tampa Bay and the NY Giants are basically out of it in the NFC.
-Carolina is still somehow alive in the NFC South, but they are on life support.
-New Orleans and Atlanta are in a fight to see who will win the division with a record most likely below .500.
-San Francisco, Seattle and Arizona are locked up in a battle for the NFC West and all three could get in, but there is also the chance that just one of them gets in.
-Detroit and Dallas are in striking distance for their respective division crowns, but it looks more like they will be Wild Card teams, if they get in at all.
-Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Houston, Miami, Buffalo, Kansas City and San Diego are in the hunt for the Wild Card in the AFC (Baltimore and Pittsburgh could win the AFC North too), problem is, there are eight teams for only two spots. My money is on Baltimore on San Diego being the two teams but we shall see.
That's what we know so far, which if you think about it, is practically nothing. The playoff picture will get clearer and clearer in the coming weeks and it sure will be fun to see how it all unfolds.
Picks for this week's games are below.
Week 14 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Dallas over CHICAGO: This is a battle between the two most frustrating teams in the NFL. The Cowboys started off the season 6-1, but are just 2-3 in their last five games, including a 33-10 beat down on Thanksgiving by division rival Philadelphia. Chicago has been a disappointment all season with their defense being one of the worst in the league and their offense's inability to score points. Quarterback Jay Cutler has also not played well accounting for 25 turnovers and has thrown 12 interceptions in Chicago's seven losses this season. Overall, I believe Dallas has the better team. They need to run the ball with DeMarco Murray because when he rushes for 100-yards, the Cowboys are 8-2 this season. I think will be a close game and I like Dallas to win this one.
St. Louis over WASHINGTON: Did you see what the Rams did to the Raiders last week? A 52-0 annihilation and it was over at halftime with the score at 38-0. I know the Raiders are the worst team in football, but it still was an impressive win for the Rams. Washington, on the other hand, has been anything but impressive this year having used three different quarterbacks. Colt McCoy was under center for Washington last week in Indianapolis and did play pretty well, throwing three touchdown passes, but he was sacked six time and he fumbled four times, losing one of them. The Rams have a decent defense and I look for them to pressure McCoy early and often en route to their second straight win.
NY Giants over TENNESSEE: Two dreadful teams in a meaningless game. The Giants, after blowing a 21-point lead last week, have not won a game since October 5th. The Titans, coming off of a 45-21 to the Texans, haven't won a game since October 12th. Good news is, one of these teams, barring a tie, will get their first win in almost two months, which I think will be the Giants, on Sunday. Bad news is, both teams will be watching the playoffs from the couch.
NEW ORLEANS over Carolina: Big win last week on the road in Pittsburgh for the Saints and they did it without Jimmy Graham catching a single pass. Drew Brees played like an MVP, throwing for five touchdowns in a 35-32 win that the Saints desperately needed. With Atlanta also winning, New Orleans is still tied with the Falcons for the division lead at 5-7. The Saints need to beat the woeful Panthers, who are on a six-game losing streak, to stay in the NFC South race. New Orleans won 28-10 in Carolina back in Week 9 and I expect a similar result in the Superdome on Sunday.
MINNESOTA over NY Jets: The Jets ran the ball 49 times for 277-yards Monday night and lost because quarterback Geno Smith was just 7-of-13 for 65-yards and threw an interception late in the fourth quarter and kicker Nick Folk missed two field goals. Only the Jets can run for 277-yards and lose, but that about sums up the kind of season Rex Ryan's guys are having. Minnesota has been playing better and I look for them to send the Jets to 2-11 on the season.
Baltimore over MIAMI: Big game down in South Beach Sunday afternoon. The Ravens and Dolphins are both 7-5 and if the season were to end today, Miami would be the six seed and Baltimore would be out of the playoffs. A lot can change the next four weeks and the winner of this game will put themselves in great position for a wild card spot. Miami struggled to stop the Jets rushing attack last week and with Baltimore having Justin Forsett, who is fourth in the league in rushing, look for the Ravens to run early and often. Both teams are evenly matched and I expect a good game with the Ravens ultimately coming out on top.
Indianapolis over CLEVELAND: It will be Brian Hoyer not Johnny Manziel under center for the Browns on Sunday. Manziel filled in for Hoyer after he was benched in the second half against Buffalo last week and "Johnny Football" led an 80-yard touchdown drive on his first series, but the Browns ultimately lost. Cleveland is one of six teams at 7-5 and only one maybe two of them will make the playoffs. The Browns will give the Colts a game, but I don't think Hoyer, or even Manziel for that matter, will be able to beat Andrew Luck.
DETROIT over Tampa Bay: Having watched Tampa Bay practically give Cincinnati the win last week, one has to wonder how they managed to win a single game this season. Usually, if a quarterback throws three first half interceptions, the opposing team wins. Well, not this past Sunday. The Buccaneers could not capitalize on three Andy Dalton turnovers and while driving to set up a game winning field goal, Tampa got caught with 12 men on the field, twice. No excuse for that at this level and I would be stunned if they upset the Lions in Detroit this week.
Houston over JACKSONVILLE: Who had Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing six touchdown passes last week? Just another sign that nothing is more unpredictable than the NFL. Fitzpatrick played great and so did J.J. Watt, who record two sacks, forced fumble, recovered a fumble, had six hits on the quarterback and caught his third touchdown pass of the season. Watt now has five touchdowns on the season and he will surely be getting some MVP votes at the end of the season. Give Jacksonville credit for coming back from a 21-point deficit to beat the Giants last week, but they won't be able to beat Fitzpatrick, Watt and the Texans, who will keep their playoff hopes alive on Sunday.
DENVER over Buffalo: At 7-5, the Buffalo Bills have a chance to make the playoffs, problem is, their schedule is brutal the last four weeks of the season. First, at Denver, then home against Green Bay, at Oakland and at New England. Ouch. My prediction is at best, the Bills will finish 8-8, which would leave them out of the playoff picture. They could maybe beat New England the last week of the season if they've clinched everything by then, but don't expect to see Buffalo in the playoffs. Peyton Manning throws three touchdowns in a Broncos win on Sunday.
ARIZONA over Kansas City: After back-to-back losses, fans have to start wondering if quarterback Drew Stanton is going to take the Cardinals to the promised land this season. In his three starts since taking over for the injured Carson Palmer, Stanton has thrown three touchdowns and five interceptions while completing just 60.8 of his passes. The Cardinals are 1-2 in those three games, but wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald did miss both of those losses with a sprained right knee. I'm not ready to jump ship on the Cardinals just yet. They have a great defense and Bruce Arians as their coach and as long as they have both, the Cardinals are still a dangerous team. They will be tested against the Chiefs, but I think the Cardinals will bounce back and get a much needed win to stay ahead of the Seahawks and 49ers in the division.
Seattle over PHILADELPHIA: We may see this matchup again in the playoffs, but Sunday's battle in Philadelphia should be a great game. The matchup to watch is obviously the Eagles offense going up against the Seahawks defense. Philadelphia is number four in total offense and Seattle is number one in total defense and the Seahawks have given up just six points in their last two games. Now, those two games were against Drew Stanton and the Cardinals and the offensively inept 49ers, but still, the defense is peaking at the right time of the year. The Eagles have scored the fourth most points in football and Mark Sanchez has done well filling in for the injured Nick Foles, but I can't pick against the Seahawks this week. That defense looks as good, if not better, than they did last year when Seattle got hot and won the Super Bowl. If the defense keeps playing the way they are, Seattle might be headed to Glendale on February 1st.
San Francisco over OAKLAND: With the 49ers offense struggling, just 36 points in their last three games including only three points against the Seahawks Thanksgiving night, don't expect them to put up 52 on the Raiders this week. The Battle of the Bay won't light up the scoreboard, but I do think the 49ers will get a much needed win as they stay alive in the NFC playoff picture.
New England over SAN DIEGO: Great comeback by the Chargers last week, down by 10 in the fourth quarter and Philip Rivers leads an 80-yard drive and that ended with him throwing a 1-yard touchdown pass to Eddie Royal. With the win, the Chargers distanced themselves from the log jam in the AFC Wild Card race, but they need to keep winning if they are to make the playoffs. New England's seven-game winning streak came to an end last week in Green Bay, but I can't see the Patriots losing two in a row. Chargers will give them a game, but I like Tom Brady and the Pats Sunday night.
GREEN BAY over Atlanta: I thought the Patriots were going to win last week at Lambeau, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers proved me wrong. I believe Green Bay is the best team in football and not only will they clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but I think they will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Oh, and you might as well start engraving Aaron Rodgers' name on the MVP trophy. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and J.J. Watt make a compelling argument, but Rodgers has thrown for 3,325-yards, 32 touchdowns, only three interceptions and has a QB rating of 118.6 this season. The last time Rodgers played this well was in 2011, when, you guessed it, he won his first MVP award. Rodgers and the Packers are looking good and they should defeat the division leading Falcons -- the first team in NFL history to lead their division while being three games under .500 -- by at least two scores.
BENGALS over Steelers: The Bengals had to wait until Week 14 to play the Steelers, but it could not have come at a better time. With the Steelers, Ravens and Browns all at 7-5, just a game and half back of the Bengals in the division, this is a huge game on Sunday.
Cincinnati was lucky to fly out of Tampa Bay with a win last week due in large part to head coach Marvin Lewis throwing the challenge flag with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. Marvin was told from upstairs that Tampa had 12 men on the field when quarterback Josh McCown connected with Louis Murphy on a long pass that would've put the Bucs in field goal range. Marvin's quick thinking, stopped the clock and allowed the referees to review the play. The NFL stated that the play was going to be reviewed anyway, but kudos to Marvin for doing what had to do to help his team win a football game. Now, he has to prepare them for the arch rival Steelers.
These are the games that define a season. Archrival, at home, in December, with a spot in the playoffs on the line. This is the type of game the NFL dreams about late in the season and they have done a great job of scheduling division games in the final weeks of the season. The Steelers have a really good team, but they have not played well the last three weeks, losing to the Jets, barely beating the Titans and losing at home to the Saints. All three of those teams are below .500 and Pittsburgh tends to play down to the competition, but I expect them to come out and play well against the Bengals.
I think the Bengals will win this game if they take care of the football. Andy Dalton cannot throw three first half interceptions or the Steelers will blow out the Bengals. Dalton must play well if Cincinnati is too win and I think Andy will bounce back this week. Expect offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to run the ball a lot and put Andy in good passing situations. It should be a tough, close game and I have the Bengals coming out on top. Bengals 27, Steelers 24.
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 132-58-1
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| Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady may very well meet again in Super Bowl XLIX. (Jeff Haynes/Sports Illustrated/The MMQB) |
-Philadelphia and Cincinnati control their own destinies. Both have three divisional games remaining and another game against a potential playoff team. Win all four, or at least three, and both will be in the playoffs.
-Oakland is the only team officially eliminated from playoff contention.
-Tennessee, Jacksonville and the NY Jets are basically out of it in the AFC.
-Washington, St. Louis, Minnesota, Chicago, Tampa Bay and the NY Giants are basically out of it in the NFC.
-Carolina is still somehow alive in the NFC South, but they are on life support.
-New Orleans and Atlanta are in a fight to see who will win the division with a record most likely below .500.
-San Francisco, Seattle and Arizona are locked up in a battle for the NFC West and all three could get in, but there is also the chance that just one of them gets in.
-Detroit and Dallas are in striking distance for their respective division crowns, but it looks more like they will be Wild Card teams, if they get in at all.
-Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Houston, Miami, Buffalo, Kansas City and San Diego are in the hunt for the Wild Card in the AFC (Baltimore and Pittsburgh could win the AFC North too), problem is, there are eight teams for only two spots. My money is on Baltimore on San Diego being the two teams but we shall see.
That's what we know so far, which if you think about it, is practically nothing. The playoff picture will get clearer and clearer in the coming weeks and it sure will be fun to see how it all unfolds.
Picks for this week's games are below.
Week 14 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
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| The Cowboys failed to get running back DeMarco Murray going on Thanksgiving as he was held under 100-yards for only the second time this season. (Philadelphia Eagles/Drew Hallowell) |
St. Louis over WASHINGTON: Did you see what the Rams did to the Raiders last week? A 52-0 annihilation and it was over at halftime with the score at 38-0. I know the Raiders are the worst team in football, but it still was an impressive win for the Rams. Washington, on the other hand, has been anything but impressive this year having used three different quarterbacks. Colt McCoy was under center for Washington last week in Indianapolis and did play pretty well, throwing three touchdown passes, but he was sacked six time and he fumbled four times, losing one of them. The Rams have a decent defense and I look for them to pressure McCoy early and often en route to their second straight win.
NY Giants over TENNESSEE: Two dreadful teams in a meaningless game. The Giants, after blowing a 21-point lead last week, have not won a game since October 5th. The Titans, coming off of a 45-21 to the Texans, haven't won a game since October 12th. Good news is, one of these teams, barring a tie, will get their first win in almost two months, which I think will be the Giants, on Sunday. Bad news is, both teams will be watching the playoffs from the couch.
NEW ORLEANS over Carolina: Big win last week on the road in Pittsburgh for the Saints and they did it without Jimmy Graham catching a single pass. Drew Brees played like an MVP, throwing for five touchdowns in a 35-32 win that the Saints desperately needed. With Atlanta also winning, New Orleans is still tied with the Falcons for the division lead at 5-7. The Saints need to beat the woeful Panthers, who are on a six-game losing streak, to stay in the NFC South race. New Orleans won 28-10 in Carolina back in Week 9 and I expect a similar result in the Superdome on Sunday.
MINNESOTA over NY Jets: The Jets ran the ball 49 times for 277-yards Monday night and lost because quarterback Geno Smith was just 7-of-13 for 65-yards and threw an interception late in the fourth quarter and kicker Nick Folk missed two field goals. Only the Jets can run for 277-yards and lose, but that about sums up the kind of season Rex Ryan's guys are having. Minnesota has been playing better and I look for them to send the Jets to 2-11 on the season.
Baltimore over MIAMI: Big game down in South Beach Sunday afternoon. The Ravens and Dolphins are both 7-5 and if the season were to end today, Miami would be the six seed and Baltimore would be out of the playoffs. A lot can change the next four weeks and the winner of this game will put themselves in great position for a wild card spot. Miami struggled to stop the Jets rushing attack last week and with Baltimore having Justin Forsett, who is fourth in the league in rushing, look for the Ravens to run early and often. Both teams are evenly matched and I expect a good game with the Ravens ultimately coming out on top.
Indianapolis over CLEVELAND: It will be Brian Hoyer not Johnny Manziel under center for the Browns on Sunday. Manziel filled in for Hoyer after he was benched in the second half against Buffalo last week and "Johnny Football" led an 80-yard touchdown drive on his first series, but the Browns ultimately lost. Cleveland is one of six teams at 7-5 and only one maybe two of them will make the playoffs. The Browns will give the Colts a game, but I don't think Hoyer, or even Manziel for that matter, will be able to beat Andrew Luck.
DETROIT over Tampa Bay: Having watched Tampa Bay practically give Cincinnati the win last week, one has to wonder how they managed to win a single game this season. Usually, if a quarterback throws three first half interceptions, the opposing team wins. Well, not this past Sunday. The Buccaneers could not capitalize on three Andy Dalton turnovers and while driving to set up a game winning field goal, Tampa got caught with 12 men on the field, twice. No excuse for that at this level and I would be stunned if they upset the Lions in Detroit this week.
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| J.J. Watt has scored five touchdowns in 12 games this season, not bad for a defensive lineman. (Smiley N. Pool/Houston Chronicle) |
DENVER over Buffalo: At 7-5, the Buffalo Bills have a chance to make the playoffs, problem is, their schedule is brutal the last four weeks of the season. First, at Denver, then home against Green Bay, at Oakland and at New England. Ouch. My prediction is at best, the Bills will finish 8-8, which would leave them out of the playoff picture. They could maybe beat New England the last week of the season if they've clinched everything by then, but don't expect to see Buffalo in the playoffs. Peyton Manning throws three touchdowns in a Broncos win on Sunday.
ARIZONA over Kansas City: After back-to-back losses, fans have to start wondering if quarterback Drew Stanton is going to take the Cardinals to the promised land this season. In his three starts since taking over for the injured Carson Palmer, Stanton has thrown three touchdowns and five interceptions while completing just 60.8 of his passes. The Cardinals are 1-2 in those three games, but wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald did miss both of those losses with a sprained right knee. I'm not ready to jump ship on the Cardinals just yet. They have a great defense and Bruce Arians as their coach and as long as they have both, the Cardinals are still a dangerous team. They will be tested against the Chiefs, but I think the Cardinals will bounce back and get a much needed win to stay ahead of the Seahawks and 49ers in the division.
Seattle over PHILADELPHIA: We may see this matchup again in the playoffs, but Sunday's battle in Philadelphia should be a great game. The matchup to watch is obviously the Eagles offense going up against the Seahawks defense. Philadelphia is number four in total offense and Seattle is number one in total defense and the Seahawks have given up just six points in their last two games. Now, those two games were against Drew Stanton and the Cardinals and the offensively inept 49ers, but still, the defense is peaking at the right time of the year. The Eagles have scored the fourth most points in football and Mark Sanchez has done well filling in for the injured Nick Foles, but I can't pick against the Seahawks this week. That defense looks as good, if not better, than they did last year when Seattle got hot and won the Super Bowl. If the defense keeps playing the way they are, Seattle might be headed to Glendale on February 1st.
San Francisco over OAKLAND: With the 49ers offense struggling, just 36 points in their last three games including only three points against the Seahawks Thanksgiving night, don't expect them to put up 52 on the Raiders this week. The Battle of the Bay won't light up the scoreboard, but I do think the 49ers will get a much needed win as they stay alive in the NFC playoff picture.
New England over SAN DIEGO: Great comeback by the Chargers last week, down by 10 in the fourth quarter and Philip Rivers leads an 80-yard drive and that ended with him throwing a 1-yard touchdown pass to Eddie Royal. With the win, the Chargers distanced themselves from the log jam in the AFC Wild Card race, but they need to keep winning if they are to make the playoffs. New England's seven-game winning streak came to an end last week in Green Bay, but I can't see the Patriots losing two in a row. Chargers will give them a game, but I like Tom Brady and the Pats Sunday night.
GREEN BAY over Atlanta: I thought the Patriots were going to win last week at Lambeau, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers proved me wrong. I believe Green Bay is the best team in football and not only will they clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but I think they will represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Oh, and you might as well start engraving Aaron Rodgers' name on the MVP trophy. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck and J.J. Watt make a compelling argument, but Rodgers has thrown for 3,325-yards, 32 touchdowns, only three interceptions and has a QB rating of 118.6 this season. The last time Rodgers played this well was in 2011, when, you guessed it, he won his first MVP award. Rodgers and the Packers are looking good and they should defeat the division leading Falcons -- the first team in NFL history to lead their division while being three games under .500 -- by at least two scores.
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| Tampa Bay's inability to capitalize on three Andy Dalton interceptions, including this one intended for A.J. Green, helped the Bengals sneak out of Tampa with a 14-13 win. (The Cincinnati Enquirer/Gary Landers) |
Cincinnati was lucky to fly out of Tampa Bay with a win last week due in large part to head coach Marvin Lewis throwing the challenge flag with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter. Marvin was told from upstairs that Tampa had 12 men on the field when quarterback Josh McCown connected with Louis Murphy on a long pass that would've put the Bucs in field goal range. Marvin's quick thinking, stopped the clock and allowed the referees to review the play. The NFL stated that the play was going to be reviewed anyway, but kudos to Marvin for doing what had to do to help his team win a football game. Now, he has to prepare them for the arch rival Steelers.
These are the games that define a season. Archrival, at home, in December, with a spot in the playoffs on the line. This is the type of game the NFL dreams about late in the season and they have done a great job of scheduling division games in the final weeks of the season. The Steelers have a really good team, but they have not played well the last three weeks, losing to the Jets, barely beating the Titans and losing at home to the Saints. All three of those teams are below .500 and Pittsburgh tends to play down to the competition, but I expect them to come out and play well against the Bengals.
I think the Bengals will win this game if they take care of the football. Andy Dalton cannot throw three first half interceptions or the Steelers will blow out the Bengals. Dalton must play well if Cincinnati is too win and I think Andy will bounce back this week. Expect offensive coordinator Hue Jackson to run the ball a lot and put Andy in good passing situations. It should be a tough, close game and I have the Bengals coming out on top. Bengals 27, Steelers 24.
Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 132-58-1
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