Week 16 Picks
"Playoff?! You kidding me?!"
The words of former Colts coach Jim Mora will forever be linked to playoff time.
There are several teams that can clinched playoff spots this weekend, the Lions, Seahawks, Saints, Cowboys, Packers, Steelers, Bengals and Ravens, but the various scenarios are convoluted, so I'll try to put them as simply as I can without mentioning all of the scenarios involving ties. Let's start with the NFC.
So far, only the Arizona Cardinals have clinched a spot in the NFC. Washington, New York, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Chicago, Minnesota and San Francisco have been eliminated. That leaves Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, Detroit, Seattle, New Orleans, Carolina and Atlanta with chances of still making the playoffs. Here's how some of those teams can get to the playoffs this weekend.
-The Eagles can't clinch a spot this weekend and will need the Cowboys and probably the Packers, Lions and Seahawks to lose a game or two over the final weeks to get into the playoffs.
-The Cowboys can clinch a playoff spot with a win plus a Packers or Lions loss. They can also clinched the NFC East with a win and Eagles loss.
-The Lions can clinched a playoff spot with a win or Eagles loss and they can also clinched the NFC North with by winning and hoping the Packers lose as well.
-The Cardinals can clinch the NFC West and home-field advantage with a win against the Seahawks. I don't see that happening and will explain why later down the page.
-The Seahawks have a lot of scenarios for getting into the playoffs, but the easiest would be to win at Arizona and hope the Eagles, Packers or Lions lose.
-The Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win plus Eagles or Cowboys loss or a loss by the Eagles and a win by the Cowboys.
-The Saints can clinch the dreadful NFC South with a win and Panthers loss.
That's it for the NFC, now for the AFC.
So far, New England, Denver and Indianapolis have clinched playoff spots. New York Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Oakland have been eliminated. Cleveland is not mathematically eliminated, but they need a miracle to reach the playoffs. That leaves Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City, San Diego, Houston, Miami and Buffalo with chances of still making the playoffs. Here are the scenarios:
-The Steelers can clinch a playoff spot with a win.
-The Bengals clinch a playoff spot with a win or a Chiefs loss plus a Chargers loss and a Bills loss. If the Ravens and Steelers were to lose, the Bengals can also clinch the AFC North with a win.
-The Ravens can clinch a playoff spot with a win plus losses by the Steelers and Bengals or a win and losses by the Chiefs and Chargers.
-The Texans, Dolphins, Bills, Chargers and Chiefs can't clinch a playoff spot this week and will need lots of help to get in, but it is possible.
If you would like to check out all of the playoff scenarios involving ties and everything else, click here. It should be a great weekend of football leading into Christmas week and I expect several teams to get a Christmas gift in the form of a playoff berth this weekend. My predictions for this week's slate of games are below.
Week 16 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Philadelphia over WASHINGTON (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, NFLN): The Eagles are in a hole after losing to Dallas last Sunday night. The Cowboys now control the NFC East and if the Eagles are to get in, they are going to need some help. To even have a chance of making the playoffs, they will need to beat Washington first. Redskins quarterback Colt McCoy was put on injured-reserve with a neck injury, so it looks it will be Robert Griffin III for the rest of the season. Philadelphia has the more talented team and I think they will win.
San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO (Saturday, 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS): The 49ers season is over and the only question is will head coach Jim Harbaugh take Michigan's offer of $48 million over six years. The Wolverines' offer of $8 million per year would make the former Michigan quarterback the highest paid coach in college football, even more than Nick Saban at Alabama, according to USA Today. If I were Harbaugh, I would take the job, I think he would be better suited in college, but that's just my opinion. San Francisco has been struggling mightily the past few weeks and you have to wonder if the players have given up on the season and on Harbaugh at this stage. That's good news for the Chargers as they need to win both of their remaining games if they are to make the playoffs and they need some help along the way as well.
MIAMI over Minnesota (Sunday, 1 pm ET, FOX): This has the chance to be one of the more competitive games of the day. Minnesota has taken a giant step forward in my opinion under Mike Zimmer and I think they will be a team to watch in 2015. Miami played well at times this year, but struggled against good teams. Both teams should be better next year, but as for Sunday, I like the Dolphins.
Baltimore over HOUSTON (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Whether it will be Case Keenum or Thad Lewis under center for Houston, I like Baltimore in this one. Texans played well at times this year, but that lack of solid, consistent play at the quarterback position will most likely result in Houston missing the postseason.
Detroit over CHICAGO (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): Things are really bad in Chicago. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler was benched this week for Jimmy Clausen and you have wonder if Cutler, head coach Marc Trestman and general manager Phil Emery will all be gone before next season. Problem is, Cutler is highest paid quarterback in the NFL this season, so either the Bears eat a ton of money or they trade him, but who is going to want someone who leads the league in turnovers for that high of a price tag? No one, I'm guessing. Detroit will pressure Clausen early and often en route to a win, which will clinch them a playoff spot.
CAROLINA over Cleveland (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS): What start for Johnny Football. Manziel and the Browns were pathetic last week against the Bengals, losing 30-0 which has ended almost any chance of them making the playoffs. I expect Manziel will play better in his second start, because it's hard to play much worse. Johnny was 10-of-18 for 80-yards, was sacked three times, hit six times and he throw two interceptions including one in the end zone. His QBR was a solid 1.0 and to put that in perspective, Andy Dalton had a QBR of 4.3 in the first meeting between the Browns and Bengals and he threw three interceptions. Whether it's Cam Newton or Derek Anderson at quarterback for Carolina, I like the Panthers to give Johnny Manziel and the Browns another rough afternoon.
NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta (Sunday 1 p.m. ET, FOX): This matchup down in New Orleans is a de facto playoff game. Atlanta has to win if they are to stay alive in the race for the NFC South. New Orleans is in the driver's seat at the moment and control their own destiny if they win out or if Carolina were to lose to Cleveland. The Saints have been up and down all year, but they played well last week -- albeit against the dreadful Bears -- and Drew Brees was brilliant throwing for 375-yards and three touchdowns in a Saints win. New Orleans lost to Atlanta, 37-34, in overtime back in Week 1, but I expect a different result this Sunday. Yes, the Saints are a surprising 3-4 at home and the Falcons have yet to lose a division game, but I like the Saints to win this game and the division.
Green Bay over TAMPA BAY (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): I for one was stunned by the Packers loss to the Bills last week. What was even more stunning was that Aaron Rodgers had 25 incompletions and failed to throw a touchdown while throwing two interceptions. A rare off day for Rodgers, nothing more. I still think the Packers have a great chance of not only making the playoffs and getting to the Super Bowl. I would shocked if they played badly for a second straight week and I don't think they will as the Packers beat up on a very bad Buccaneers team.
PITTSBURGH over Kansas City (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): With a win over the Chiefs, the Steelers will find themselves in the playoffs. A loss to the Steelers, just about ends the Chiefs season. The matchup to watch will be the Pittsburgh offense going up against the Kansas City defense. The Steelers have scored the sixth most points in the NFL this year, while the Chiefs have given up the fourth fewest. I believe the Steelers have more talent on offense and that talent along with the game being in Pittsburgh will lead to a close Steelers win.
New England over NY JETS (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): With a win the Patriots can clinch a first-round bye and if the Broncos were to lose Monday night, they would clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It's looking the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC will go through Foxborough and that's not a good thing for the rest of the AFC. The Patriots are playing great football right now and are undefeated at Gillette Stadium. As for Sunday in East Rutherford, the Patriots will beat the pathetic Jets by at least two scores.
ST. LOUIS over NY Giants (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): The Giants have won their last two games and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has been magnificent in those two games with 23 receptions for 273-yards and four touchdowns. However, I like the Rams on Sunday. St. Louis has a great defense and I think they will shut down Beckham just enough to get the win.
Buffalo over OAKLAND (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): What a performance by the Buffalo defense last week against Green Bay. The Bills did something that no other defense has been able to do in Aaron Rodgers career and that is force two interceptions while not allowing him to throw a touchdown pass. I would put the Bills defense up there with Seattle and Arizona as the best in the league and it will be the defense that helps them win in Oakland on Sunday.
DALLAS over Indianapolis (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): The big question here is will Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray play or not after having surgery on a broken bone in his left hand? Murray has practiced this week and I expect him to play, which is good news for the Cowboys. Dallas is third in the league in rushing and this rushing attack is the reason why the Cowboys are 10-4 and fixed to make the playoffs. The Colts are a good team too and will test Jerry's Boys, but they struggle against good teams. Indy has lost to four of the best teams they've played this season, Pittsburgh, Denver, New England and Philadelphia. Dallas is another good team and although I think the Colts will put up a good fight, I like the Cowboys to get the win.
Seattle over ARIZONA (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): First, Carson Palmer, now, Drew Stanton. Stanton suffered a sprained ACL and MCL last week against the Rams, which means third-year quarterback Ryan Lindley will get his first start in 2014 against the defending Super Bowl champs, the Seattle Seahawks. No defense is hotter -- Buffalo is a close second -- than the Seattle's right now, so good luck to Lindley. The Seahawks have given up just 27 points in their last four games against the Cardinals, 49ers (twice) and Eagles and look even better than the defense that helped them win a Super Bowl last year. It's a good thing the Cardinals clinched a playoff spot already because with Palmer and Stanton out, Arizona may not win another game this season.
BENGALS over Broncos (Monday, 8:30, p.m. ET, ESPN): Can the Bengals finally win a game in primetime or least not get absolutely embarrassed?
This is a tough game to pick and a lot is on the line for both teams. The Bengals fight to get into the playoffs and the Broncos are fighting for a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs. There are so many reasons why I should take the Broncos here, but I'm going with the Bengals.
I know Denver has a great team and so many playmakers on both sides of the ball not to mention one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Peyton Manning. And yes, the Bengals have struggled against good teams this season -- losses to Pittsburgh, New England and Indianapolis this year -- and yes, the Bengals have been brutal in prime-time games, but I think they'll win on Monday night.
Last week's shutout against the Browns, I think, did the Bengals a world of good. It gave them some confidence and swagger on the defensive side of the ball after the defense got shredded by Steelers the week before. And Jeremy Hill continues to run on and over everybody. He has been a great addition in the running game and I would run Hill and Bernard all night against the Broncos to keep Manning and that Denver offense on the bench. The fewer possessions the Broncos have, the better off the Bengals will be. That along with zero turnovers and poor plays by Andy Dalton could help the Bengals steal one from the Broncos.
It won't be easy and the Bengals almost need to play a perfect game against Manning, who is 8-0 against the Bengals in his career, but I do think it's possible. Bengals 28, Broncos 27. Who-Dey!!
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 14-2
Overall: 161-63-1
The words of former Colts coach Jim Mora will forever be linked to playoff time.
There are several teams that can clinched playoff spots this weekend, the Lions, Seahawks, Saints, Cowboys, Packers, Steelers, Bengals and Ravens, but the various scenarios are convoluted, so I'll try to put them as simply as I can without mentioning all of the scenarios involving ties. Let's start with the NFC.
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| Despite losing two starting quarterbacks, Bruce Arians has guided the Arizona Cardinals to the playoffs for the first time in five years. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America) |
-The Eagles can't clinch a spot this weekend and will need the Cowboys and probably the Packers, Lions and Seahawks to lose a game or two over the final weeks to get into the playoffs.
-The Cowboys can clinch a playoff spot with a win plus a Packers or Lions loss. They can also clinched the NFC East with a win and Eagles loss.
-The Lions can clinched a playoff spot with a win or Eagles loss and they can also clinched the NFC North with by winning and hoping the Packers lose as well.
-The Cardinals can clinch the NFC West and home-field advantage with a win against the Seahawks. I don't see that happening and will explain why later down the page.
-The Seahawks have a lot of scenarios for getting into the playoffs, but the easiest would be to win at Arizona and hope the Eagles, Packers or Lions lose.
-The Packers can clinch a playoff spot with a win plus Eagles or Cowboys loss or a loss by the Eagles and a win by the Cowboys.
-The Saints can clinch the dreadful NFC South with a win and Panthers loss.
That's it for the NFC, now for the AFC.
So far, New England, Denver and Indianapolis have clinched playoff spots. New York Jets, Jacksonville, Tennessee and Oakland have been eliminated. Cleveland is not mathematically eliminated, but they need a miracle to reach the playoffs. That leaves Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City, San Diego, Houston, Miami and Buffalo with chances of still making the playoffs. Here are the scenarios:
-The Steelers can clinch a playoff spot with a win.
-The Bengals clinch a playoff spot with a win or a Chiefs loss plus a Chargers loss and a Bills loss. If the Ravens and Steelers were to lose, the Bengals can also clinch the AFC North with a win.
-The Ravens can clinch a playoff spot with a win plus losses by the Steelers and Bengals or a win and losses by the Chiefs and Chargers.
-The Texans, Dolphins, Bills, Chargers and Chiefs can't clinch a playoff spot this week and will need lots of help to get in, but it is possible.
If you would like to check out all of the playoff scenarios involving ties and everything else, click here. It should be a great weekend of football leading into Christmas week and I expect several teams to get a Christmas gift in the form of a playoff berth this weekend. My predictions for this week's slate of games are below.
Week 16 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Philadelphia over WASHINGTON (Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, NFLN): The Eagles are in a hole after losing to Dallas last Sunday night. The Cowboys now control the NFC East and if the Eagles are to get in, they are going to need some help. To even have a chance of making the playoffs, they will need to beat Washington first. Redskins quarterback Colt McCoy was put on injured-reserve with a neck injury, so it looks it will be Robert Griffin III for the rest of the season. Philadelphia has the more talented team and I think they will win.
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| Jim Harbaugh may only have two games left as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers. (USA TODAY Sports Images) |
MIAMI over Minnesota (Sunday, 1 pm ET, FOX): This has the chance to be one of the more competitive games of the day. Minnesota has taken a giant step forward in my opinion under Mike Zimmer and I think they will be a team to watch in 2015. Miami played well at times this year, but struggled against good teams. Both teams should be better next year, but as for Sunday, I like the Dolphins.
Baltimore over HOUSTON (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Whether it will be Case Keenum or Thad Lewis under center for Houston, I like Baltimore in this one. Texans played well at times this year, but that lack of solid, consistent play at the quarterback position will most likely result in Houston missing the postseason.
Detroit over CHICAGO (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): Things are really bad in Chicago. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler was benched this week for Jimmy Clausen and you have wonder if Cutler, head coach Marc Trestman and general manager Phil Emery will all be gone before next season. Problem is, Cutler is highest paid quarterback in the NFL this season, so either the Bears eat a ton of money or they trade him, but who is going to want someone who leads the league in turnovers for that high of a price tag? No one, I'm guessing. Detroit will pressure Clausen early and often en route to a win, which will clinch them a playoff spot.
CAROLINA over Cleveland (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET CBS): What start for Johnny Football. Manziel and the Browns were pathetic last week against the Bengals, losing 30-0 which has ended almost any chance of them making the playoffs. I expect Manziel will play better in his second start, because it's hard to play much worse. Johnny was 10-of-18 for 80-yards, was sacked three times, hit six times and he throw two interceptions including one in the end zone. His QBR was a solid 1.0 and to put that in perspective, Andy Dalton had a QBR of 4.3 in the first meeting between the Browns and Bengals and he threw three interceptions. Whether it's Cam Newton or Derek Anderson at quarterback for Carolina, I like the Panthers to give Johnny Manziel and the Browns another rough afternoon.
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| Drew Brees and the Saints are in control of the NFC South going into Week 16, but the Falcons and Panthers aren't far behind. (David Grunfeld/The Times Picayune) |
Green Bay over TAMPA BAY (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): I for one was stunned by the Packers loss to the Bills last week. What was even more stunning was that Aaron Rodgers had 25 incompletions and failed to throw a touchdown while throwing two interceptions. A rare off day for Rodgers, nothing more. I still think the Packers have a great chance of not only making the playoffs and getting to the Super Bowl. I would shocked if they played badly for a second straight week and I don't think they will as the Packers beat up on a very bad Buccaneers team.
PITTSBURGH over Kansas City (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): With a win over the Chiefs, the Steelers will find themselves in the playoffs. A loss to the Steelers, just about ends the Chiefs season. The matchup to watch will be the Pittsburgh offense going up against the Kansas City defense. The Steelers have scored the sixth most points in the NFL this year, while the Chiefs have given up the fourth fewest. I believe the Steelers have more talent on offense and that talent along with the game being in Pittsburgh will lead to a close Steelers win.
New England over NY JETS (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): With a win the Patriots can clinch a first-round bye and if the Broncos were to lose Monday night, they would clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It's looking the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC will go through Foxborough and that's not a good thing for the rest of the AFC. The Patriots are playing great football right now and are undefeated at Gillette Stadium. As for Sunday in East Rutherford, the Patriots will beat the pathetic Jets by at least two scores.
ST. LOUIS over NY Giants (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): The Giants have won their last two games and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. has been magnificent in those two games with 23 receptions for 273-yards and four touchdowns. However, I like the Rams on Sunday. St. Louis has a great defense and I think they will shut down Beckham just enough to get the win.
Buffalo over OAKLAND (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): What a performance by the Buffalo defense last week against Green Bay. The Bills did something that no other defense has been able to do in Aaron Rodgers career and that is force two interceptions while not allowing him to throw a touchdown pass. I would put the Bills defense up there with Seattle and Arizona as the best in the league and it will be the defense that helps them win in Oakland on Sunday.
DALLAS over Indianapolis (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): The big question here is will Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray play or not after having surgery on a broken bone in his left hand? Murray has practiced this week and I expect him to play, which is good news for the Cowboys. Dallas is third in the league in rushing and this rushing attack is the reason why the Cowboys are 10-4 and fixed to make the playoffs. The Colts are a good team too and will test Jerry's Boys, but they struggle against good teams. Indy has lost to four of the best teams they've played this season, Pittsburgh, Denver, New England and Philadelphia. Dallas is another good team and although I think the Colts will put up a good fight, I like the Cowboys to get the win.
Seattle over ARIZONA (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): First, Carson Palmer, now, Drew Stanton. Stanton suffered a sprained ACL and MCL last week against the Rams, which means third-year quarterback Ryan Lindley will get his first start in 2014 against the defending Super Bowl champs, the Seattle Seahawks. No defense is hotter -- Buffalo is a close second -- than the Seattle's right now, so good luck to Lindley. The Seahawks have given up just 27 points in their last four games against the Cardinals, 49ers (twice) and Eagles and look even better than the defense that helped them win a Super Bowl last year. It's a good thing the Cardinals clinched a playoff spot already because with Palmer and Stanton out, Arizona may not win another game this season.
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| Bengals rookie running back Jeremy Hill earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors for his 148-yards and two touchdown performance against the Browns last week. (The Cincinnati Enquirer/Jeff Swinger) |
This is a tough game to pick and a lot is on the line for both teams. The Bengals fight to get into the playoffs and the Broncos are fighting for a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs. There are so many reasons why I should take the Broncos here, but I'm going with the Bengals.
I know Denver has a great team and so many playmakers on both sides of the ball not to mention one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Peyton Manning. And yes, the Bengals have struggled against good teams this season -- losses to Pittsburgh, New England and Indianapolis this year -- and yes, the Bengals have been brutal in prime-time games, but I think they'll win on Monday night.
Last week's shutout against the Browns, I think, did the Bengals a world of good. It gave them some confidence and swagger on the defensive side of the ball after the defense got shredded by Steelers the week before. And Jeremy Hill continues to run on and over everybody. He has been a great addition in the running game and I would run Hill and Bernard all night against the Broncos to keep Manning and that Denver offense on the bench. The fewer possessions the Broncos have, the better off the Bengals will be. That along with zero turnovers and poor plays by Andy Dalton could help the Bengals steal one from the Broncos.
It won't be easy and the Bengals almost need to play a perfect game against Manning, who is 8-0 against the Bengals in his career, but I do think it's possible. Bengals 28, Broncos 27. Who-Dey!!
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 14-2
Overall: 161-63-1
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