Week 17 Picks

10 playoff spots have been claimed, which means only two are up for grabs on the final weekend of the regular season. There are a lot of scenarios for how teams can clinch a first-round bye, home-field advantage, etc...and click here if you want to know more, but here is what you really need to know about today's games. Let's look at the scenarios for the NFC first:

-Arizona, Seattle, Detroit, Green Bay and Dallas have all clinched at a playoff spot. Only Atlanta and Carolina remain in the hunt.

-The winner of Detroit-Green Bay wins the NFC North. The loser will be a Wild Card team. Green Bay clinches a first-round bye with a win.

Marshawn Lynch had another legendary 'Beast Mode' run against the
Cardinals last week in Arizona.
(Bettina Hansen/The Seattle Times)
-Seattle can clinch home-field advantage with a win over St. Louis as long as Detroit and Green Bay don't tie.

-The winner of Carolina-Atlanta wins the NFC South. Neither team deserves to be in the playoffs, but the rules say a team that wins their division makes the playoffs whether they have a .500 record or not.

Here is my prediction on what the NFC playoff picture will look like Sunday night after all the afternoon games have concluded:

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
3. Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
4. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
5. Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
6. Detroit Lions (11-5)

Now what you need to know in the AFC:

-The winner of Cincinnati-Pittsburgh wins the AFC North. The loser is will be a Wild Card team.

-San Diego clinches a playoff spot with a win. 

-Baltimore clinches a playoff spot with a win and San Diego loss. 

-Houston clinches a playoff spot with a win plus losses by Baltimore and San Diego.

-Kansas City clinches a playoff spot with a win plus losses by Baltimore and Houston.

Here is my prediction on what the AFC playoff picture will look like after the Bengals-Steelers game Sunday night:

1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. Denver Broncos (12-4)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4-1)
4. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
6. San Diego Chargers (10-6)

Hard to believe the regular season is almost over, but I have a feeling the playoffs are going to very entertaining whether my predictions are right or not. My picks for the games this Sunday are below. 

Week 17 Picks (Home team in CAPS)

BALTIMORE over Cleveland (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Johnny Manziel's season is over and so is the Browns. Manziel is out with a hamstring injury and Brian Hoyer is hurt as well, which means rookie Connor Shaw will get his first career start. Baltimore needs a win and some help to get in the playoffs, but at the minimum, they'll beat Cleveland. 

Dallas over WASHINGTON (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): A dreadful season for the Redskins finally comes to an end as the Cowboys look like a Super Bowl contender. If Dallas can continue to run the football like they have all season, look for them to make a deep playoff run. 

Indianapolis over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): The Colts are locked into the four seed in the AFC playoffs and will help the Titans lock into one of the top two picks in the NFL draft with a win Sunday. 

HOUSTON over Jacksonville (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Houston needs a miracle to make the playoffs, but they have to beat the pesky Jaguars if they are to have any chance at all. J.J. Watt will have one more game to make his case for MVP and I think he'll play well and help the Texans finished 9-7on the season. 

Antonio Gates and Philip Rivers - San Diego Chargers v San Francisco 49ers
Philip Rivers led a 21-point comeback last week against the 49ers
and has the Chargers a win away from making the playoffs.
(Ezra Shaw/Getty Images North America)
San Diego over KANSAS CITY (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): It's simple, win and the Chargers are in. Beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead won't be easy, but I think they will. San Diego lost to Kansas City 23-20, back in Week 7, and I expect a similar score on Sunday, only with the Chargers coming out on top this time. 

MIAMI over NY Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): A miserable season and most likely Rex Ryan's tenure as head coach of the NY Jets, comes to an end Sunday in Miami. Good luck, to whoever the Jets tap as their next head coach. 

MINNESOTA over Chicago (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): Jay Cutler will back under center for the Bears this week with Jimmy Clausen out with a concussion and you have to wonder if this will be the last game for Cutler in a Bears uniform. I expect Cutler to be back in Chicago next season because no team is going to want to take on his contract, but as for head coach Marc Trestman, he may not be back. We shall see, but I like the Vikings to beat the Bears in this one

NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): The Patriots have already clinched home-field, so they don't have much to play for on Sunday and Brady may not play the who game, but I still take the Patriots to win a game in December. 

Philadelphia over NY GIANTS (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): The Eagles picked the worst time of the year to loss three straight games and it cost them a chance of going to the playoffs. The Giants have been playing better, winning three straight, but I like the Eagles to win this rivalry game. 

New Orleans over TAMPA BAY (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): Many people thought that these two teams would be playoff contenders at the beginning of the season. Instead, the Saints and Bucs did nothing, but disappoint this season. The Saints should win on Sunday, but it will be a hollow victory. The Buccaneers can clinch the first pick in the draft with a loss you, so it may be in their best interest to lose this game. Would they take Oregon's Marcus Mariota, perhaps?

GREEN BAY over Detroit (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): The Lions have not won a game at Lambeau Field since 1991. I don't expect things to change on Sunday. The Packers, in particular, Aaron Rodgers, haven't been putting up the kind of stats on offense we are acustom to seeing, but Green Bay still has a very good team. The Lions have a great defense, but are too inconsistent on offense for me to pick them in this one. Packers win a close game and clinch the NFC North.

ATLANTA over Carolina (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Someone has to win the pathetic NFC South and I think it will be the Falcons. Atlanta is 5-0 in the division and Carolina is a divisional opponent, so that works in their favor. Carolina is just 2-4-1 on the road this season and I know quarterback Cam Newton is back, but he still is sore from his car accident. The bottom line is that neither of these teams deserve to be in the playoffs. I mean, the Falcons are 1-9 against teams outside the division and the Panthers went over two months between wins this season, including an 0-6-1 streak. Atlanta has the better team -- I guess, neither team is very good -- and with the game in the Georgia Dome, I like the Falcons to win the NFC South.

DENVER over Oakland (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): Peyton Manning did not look like the Peyton Manning we all know last Monday night against the Bengals. Manning threw four interceptions, including a 30-yard pick six to Dre Kirkpatrick late in the fourth quarter, that cost his team the game. Whether it was the rainy weather, an injury, or the fact that Manning is 38 years old, Peyton did not look like a Hall of Fame quarterback. Now, I don't expect him to play poorly for a second straight week and I think they'll beat the Raiders, but the health and play of Manning is something to be concerned about as the Broncos enter the playoffs. 

SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): It's a shame that Carson Palmer got hurt or I really think the Cardinals would have a chance to be the first team to play in the Super Bowl on their home-field. Ryan Lindley struggled mightily against Seattle last week and Logan Thomas was going see some action under center this week in San Francisco, but now Lindley will get another chance to start. Lindley holds the record with 225 career attempts without a touchdown pass. This will most likely be Jim Harbaugh's last game as 49ers head coach and I think San Francisco will send him out with a win no matter who is at quarterback for Arizona. 

SEATTLE over St. Louis (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Over the past five weeks, the Seahawks are 5-0 and have held opponents to just 33 points. Now, that's Super Bowl caliper football. 

Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill (32) runs
Jeremy Hill's 85-yard touchdown run helped the Bengals upset the Broncos
on Monday Night Football.
(Jeff Swinger/The Cincinnati Enquirer)
Bengals over STEELERS (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): Best win of the Andy Dalton era. Period. It wasn't easy, but the Bengals found a way to beat Peyton Manning.

The Bengals never gave up and it seemed like every time the Broncos gained some momentum, the Bengals responded. After Andy threw a terrible ball to A.J. Green that resulted in a pick-six by Aqib Talib and Green bruising his arm, I thought the Bengals were in trouble. Jeremy Hill answer though, with an 85-yard touchdown run and got the Bengals back in the game.

When the Broncos cut the lead to six, Adam Jones took the ensuing kickoff 80-yards and then Gio Bernard caught a 22-yard touchdown pass three plays later. And after dominating the third quarter, the Broncos had taken the lead and were looking to go down and get more points. But Adam Jones made another big play and picked off a Manning pass to give the Bengals the ball back.

Then with four minutes left, the Broncos down by two, Manning looked to do what he has done a record number of times, lead a fourth quarter comeback. Once again, the Bengals made a big play when they needed it the most, a pick-six by Dre Kirkpatrick that sealed the win. It was Manning's fourth interception of the day, something he never does. The Bengals had won a prime time game, but the question now is, can they do it two weeks in a row?

Yes, and here's why. The Bengals had a 21-17 lead going into the fourth quarter before the defense fell apart and gave up 25 points in the first meeting with the Steelers. Cincinnati outplayed Pittsburgh in three of the four quarters and I think with the momentum the Bengals have gained over the past two weeks, with wins over the Browns and Broncos, will carry over to Sunday night. The Bengals have won in Pittsburgh before with the division on the line and I think they will do it again. Bengals 34, Steelers 27.

Last Week: 11-5
Overall: 171-68-1

Comments