Week 15 Picks
Three weeks left and a lot still to be determined. No one has clinched a playoff spot yet and the Wild Card races will most likely come down to the final weekend. Five teams have a chance to clinch a playoff spot this weekend, Arizona, Denver, Green Bay, Indianapolis and New England. Click here to see the various scenarios.
There is so much to talk about for this week's games, let's get right into it.
My picks for this week's slate of games on below.
Week 15 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
Arizona over ST. LOUIS (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET, NFLN): For the first time since 1945, the Rams have shutout their opponents in back-to-back weeks. It is one of the most impressive stats you'll see this season, but I'm taking the Cardinals Thursday night. I really considered taking the Rams here with the way that defense is playing and I don't want to diminish what they accomplished the last two weeks, but they did shutout Washington and Oakland. The Rams still have a good team and if they had a good quarterback they would probably be up there with the Cardinals and Seahawks fighting it out for the division. Had it not been for two touchdowns by the Cardinals defense, the game between these two would have been much closer back in Week 10. The first team to 14 may be the winner in tonight's game as I expect to see a lot of great defense and ultimately think the Cardinals will win a close game.
Pittsburgh over ATLANTA (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Although they are at 5-8, the NFC South crown is Atlanta's to lose. After facing the Steelers at home, the Falcons play at the Saints and home against the Panthers. I think both New Orleans and Carolina will win this week, which if that were to happen, would put Atlanta in quite a predicament if they were to lose to Pittsburgh, which I think they will. The Steelers secondary is terrible, but if that offense continues to score points and put up yards, they are going to be hard to beat down the stretch.
NY GIANTS over Washington (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): The season cannot end soon enough for the Giants and Redskins. Good news for the Giants is, things are far worse off in Washington than in New York, so they have something to be happy about. The Giants won decisively 45-14, in Week 4 and I expect another blowout on Sunday.
NEW ENGLAND over Miami (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): At 7-6, the Dolphins need a win in the worst way. Good luck with that Sunday against the Patriots. New England has lost just one game in the last two months and they will clinch their sixth straight division title with a win on Sunday, while ending the playoff chances of the Miami Dolphins.
KANSAS CITY over Oakland (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): I know the Raiders have won two of their last three games, including a win against Kansas City, and that the Chiefs have lost three straight, but I like K.C. in this one. The Chiefs are a game back in the AFC Wild Card race and another loss to the Raiders will, for all intents and purposes, end their season. Kansas City is more talented than Oakland and I think they show it Sunday at Arrowhead.
INDIANAPOLIS over Houston (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): With a win against the Texans, the Colts can clinch the AFC South. Indy needed an 11 play, 90-yard drive in the final minutes of the game last week in Cleveland to get the win, but a win is a win. Houston and Indianapolis played a close game back in Week 6 with the Colts winning 33-28, and I expect a similar result Sunday. However, Indy better find a way to stop J.J. Watt this time around if they are to win. Watt had seven tackles, three for loss, two sacks, three pass deflections, four hits on the quarterback and a 45-yard fumble returned for a touchdown. In other words, a typical day at the office for Mr. Watt.
BALTIMORE over Jacksonville (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Baltimore kept their playoff hopes alive with a win last week in South Beach against Miami and now they face another team from the Sunshine State in Jacksonville. The Ravens cannot afford to lose to the Jaguars or their chances of making the playoffs will be flushed down the toilet. I don't expect the Ravens to lose at home to the 2-11 Jaguars, but they better come ready to play.
Green Bay over BUFFALO (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): Since the Packers lost in New Orleans to the Saints on October 26th, Green Bay has won five straight games by an average of 17.6 points and have scored 201 points in that span. Aaron Rodgers has been a big part of that success throwing for 1,978-yards, 16 touchdowns and no picks in that time. Give him the MVP trophy right now as the Packers march towards getting home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
CAROLINA over Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): After scoring four touchdowns last week in a win against the Saints, quarterback Cam Newton will be sitting out of Sunday's game due to injuries suffered in a car accident on Tuesday. Derek Anderson will start at quarterback for the Panthers on Sunday for the second time this season. Anderson started the season opener, also against the Buccaneers, and played well throwing for 230-yards and two touchdowns in a Carolina win. Tampa is having a dreadful season after many thought they would be a playoff team this season and I think they will lose another game to Derek Anderson and the Panthers this Sunday.
DETROIT over Minnesota (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): The Vikings played the Lions tough back in Week 6, a 17-3 Detroit win, and I expect a similar result on Sunday. Detroit's defense has been lights out this season and if the Lions are to make the playoffs and win some games in January it will be because of that defense.
NY Jets over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): This is actually a game where winning might do more harm than good. Both New York and Tennessee are 2-11 and tied with Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Oakland for the first pick in the draft. With Marcus Mariota and plenty of other talented players expected to be available, it might be better for the Jets and Titans to lose than to win. Both teams are so bad that it is hard to pick a winner, but I like the Jets for the simple fact that they are able to run the football. They are second in the league in rushing and the Titans are dead last in stopping the run. Big advantage for the Jets, which will mostly result in their third win of the season.
Denver over SAN DIEGO (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): According to NFL.com, there are six different ways the Broncos can clinch a spot in the playoffs on Sunday, the easiest being a win over the Chargers. San Diego has struggled against good competition this season losing to Denver, Arizona, Miami, Kansas City and New England and if the Chargers are going to make the playoffs they are going to have to beat good competition. The Chargers face Denver, San Francisco and Kansas City in their final three weeks and their playoff hopes hinge on winning at least two maybe even all three games. Peyton Manning did not throw a touchdown pass last week, but expect that to change on Sunday as he lead the Broncos to a win and the division title.
SEATTLE over San Francisco (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Hard to believe, but with a loss to the Seahawks this week, the San Francisco 49ers will be eliminated from playoff contention. Will the mean the end of Jim Harabaugh as head coach? I think it will, but only time will tell. The Seahawks have been playing incredible defense the last three weeks and they looked poised to make another run to the Super Bowl. Another physical game is in store and I like the Seahawks to end the 49ers season Sunday afternoon.
PHILADELPHIA over Dallas (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): I went back and forth picking this one, but ultimately decided on the Eagles because, Philadelphia went into Dallas on Thanksgiving and dominated the Cowboys. That game was never close and neither team has changed all that much in the past two weeks. However, the Cowboys are 6-0 on the road this season, so that is something to consider, but the Eagles are 6-1 at home. I usually give the advantage to the home team in games like this and I look for much closer game than the one between these two teams two weeks ago. In the end, I like the Eagles to win.
New Orleans over CHICAGO (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): For about the past month, I have waited for the Saints to turn things around and win the NFC South, but it just hasn't happened. New Orleans has lost four straight home games and four of their last five games. Their defense ranks 29th in the league in both rushing and passing defense and 31st in total defense. The Bears aren't much better at 28th in total defense and they are 30th against the pass. This game is a toss-up with both teams being as bad as they are, but I'll take the Saints and give them one more week.
Bengals over BROWNS (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox): This past week yours truly turned 24 years old. The last time the Bengals won a playoff game it was January 6, 1991. I was 27 days old. For those of you keeping track, 23 years, 11 months, one week and one day has passed since the Cincinnati Bengals last won a playoff game. With the way the Bengals played last week against the Steelers, one has to wonder if another year will pass until the Bengals win another playoff game.
I thought the Bengals played well at times last week. A.J. Green embarrassed Ike Taylor and the rest of the Pittsburgh secondary catching 11 passes for a career high 224-yards including an 81-yard touchdown. I also thought Jeremy Hill was effective running the ball, but offensive coordinator Hue Jackson kept running Gio Bernard up the middle, which he's not built to do. If I were Jackson, I would make Hill the featured back and give it to Gio on tosses and sweeps and in the passing game. But none of that matter as the Steelers went through the Bengals defense like a hot knife through butter.
For the third time this season, the Bengals gave up over 500-yards of offense. This season they have given up 543-yards to the Steelers, 505-yards to the Patriots and 506-yards to the Colts. According to STATS, that's a franchise first. This is the wrong time of year to be setting that kind of franchise record and if defensive coordinator Paul Guenther doesn't turn his defense around, the Bengals will not be in the playoffs. And his job does not get any easier this week as the Bengals will face the Browns and quarterback Johnny Manziel in his first career start.
The Browns need to win out to make the playoffs and they believe, and so do I, that Johnny Manziel gives them a better chance to win than Brian Hoyer. Manziel is a rookie and unproven in the NFL, but his athletic and running abilities could be a difference maker. If I were the Browns, I would run read-option, then more read-option and then more read-option. The Bengals defensive ends continually crash hard inside and if that continues then Manziel will have over 100-yards rushing on Sunday. Cleveland would also be smart to study the Panthers tape against the Bengals, because they had a hard time stopping Cam Newton.
With that being said, Manziel is a rookie and rookies, especially in their first game, are prone to mistakes. If the Bengals can take care of the ball, I think Manziel and the Browns are going to make some mistakes on offense that will be the difference in the game. I think a decent amount of points will be scored and I see the Bengals getting a much needed win, while in the process, ending almost all playoff hopes for the Browns. Bengals 30, Browns 27.
Last Week: 13-3
Overall: 146-61-1
There is so much to talk about for this week's games, let's get right into it.
My picks for this week's slate of games on below.
Week 15 Picks (Home team in CAPS)
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| Behind 4.5 sacks from Robert Quinn, the Rams have shutout their opponents in back-to-back weeks, the first team since 2009 to accomplish such a feat. (Chris Lee/St. Louis Post-Dispatch) |
Pittsburgh over ATLANTA (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Although they are at 5-8, the NFC South crown is Atlanta's to lose. After facing the Steelers at home, the Falcons play at the Saints and home against the Panthers. I think both New Orleans and Carolina will win this week, which if that were to happen, would put Atlanta in quite a predicament if they were to lose to Pittsburgh, which I think they will. The Steelers secondary is terrible, but if that offense continues to score points and put up yards, they are going to be hard to beat down the stretch.
NY GIANTS over Washington (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): The season cannot end soon enough for the Giants and Redskins. Good news for the Giants is, things are far worse off in Washington than in New York, so they have something to be happy about. The Giants won decisively 45-14, in Week 4 and I expect another blowout on Sunday.
NEW ENGLAND over Miami (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): At 7-6, the Dolphins need a win in the worst way. Good luck with that Sunday against the Patriots. New England has lost just one game in the last two months and they will clinch their sixth straight division title with a win on Sunday, while ending the playoff chances of the Miami Dolphins.
KANSAS CITY over Oakland (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): I know the Raiders have won two of their last three games, including a win against Kansas City, and that the Chiefs have lost three straight, but I like K.C. in this one. The Chiefs are a game back in the AFC Wild Card race and another loss to the Raiders will, for all intents and purposes, end their season. Kansas City is more talented than Oakland and I think they show it Sunday at Arrowhead.
INDIANAPOLIS over Houston (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): With a win against the Texans, the Colts can clinch the AFC South. Indy needed an 11 play, 90-yard drive in the final minutes of the game last week in Cleveland to get the win, but a win is a win. Houston and Indianapolis played a close game back in Week 6 with the Colts winning 33-28, and I expect a similar result Sunday. However, Indy better find a way to stop J.J. Watt this time around if they are to win. Watt had seven tackles, three for loss, two sacks, three pass deflections, four hits on the quarterback and a 45-yard fumble returned for a touchdown. In other words, a typical day at the office for Mr. Watt.
BALTIMORE over Jacksonville (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS): Baltimore kept their playoff hopes alive with a win last week in South Beach against Miami and now they face another team from the Sunshine State in Jacksonville. The Ravens cannot afford to lose to the Jaguars or their chances of making the playoffs will be flushed down the toilet. I don't expect the Ravens to lose at home to the 2-11 Jaguars, but they better come ready to play.
Green Bay over BUFFALO (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): Since the Packers lost in New Orleans to the Saints on October 26th, Green Bay has won five straight games by an average of 17.6 points and have scored 201 points in that span. Aaron Rodgers has been a big part of that success throwing for 1,978-yards, 16 touchdowns and no picks in that time. Give him the MVP trophy right now as the Packers march towards getting home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
CAROLINA over Tampa Bay (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX): After scoring four touchdowns last week in a win against the Saints, quarterback Cam Newton will be sitting out of Sunday's game due to injuries suffered in a car accident on Tuesday. Derek Anderson will start at quarterback for the Panthers on Sunday for the second time this season. Anderson started the season opener, also against the Buccaneers, and played well throwing for 230-yards and two touchdowns in a Carolina win. Tampa is having a dreadful season after many thought they would be a playoff team this season and I think they will lose another game to Derek Anderson and the Panthers this Sunday.
DETROIT over Minnesota (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX): The Vikings played the Lions tough back in Week 6, a 17-3 Detroit win, and I expect a similar result on Sunday. Detroit's defense has been lights out this season and if the Lions are to make the playoffs and win some games in January it will be because of that defense.
NY Jets over TENNESSEE (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS): This is actually a game where winning might do more harm than good. Both New York and Tennessee are 2-11 and tied with Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Oakland for the first pick in the draft. With Marcus Mariota and plenty of other talented players expected to be available, it might be better for the Jets and Titans to lose than to win. Both teams are so bad that it is hard to pick a winner, but I like the Jets for the simple fact that they are able to run the football. They are second in the league in rushing and the Titans are dead last in stopping the run. Big advantage for the Jets, which will mostly result in their third win of the season.
Denver over SAN DIEGO (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS): According to NFL.com, there are six different ways the Broncos can clinch a spot in the playoffs on Sunday, the easiest being a win over the Chargers. San Diego has struggled against good competition this season losing to Denver, Arizona, Miami, Kansas City and New England and if the Chargers are going to make the playoffs they are going to have to beat good competition. The Chargers face Denver, San Francisco and Kansas City in their final three weeks and their playoff hopes hinge on winning at least two maybe even all three games. Peyton Manning did not throw a touchdown pass last week, but expect that to change on Sunday as he lead the Broncos to a win and the division title.
SEATTLE over San Francisco (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX): Hard to believe, but with a loss to the Seahawks this week, the San Francisco 49ers will be eliminated from playoff contention. Will the mean the end of Jim Harabaugh as head coach? I think it will, but only time will tell. The Seahawks have been playing incredible defense the last three weeks and they looked poised to make another run to the Super Bowl. Another physical game is in store and I like the Seahawks to end the 49ers season Sunday afternoon.
PHILADELPHIA over Dallas (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC): I went back and forth picking this one, but ultimately decided on the Eagles because, Philadelphia went into Dallas on Thanksgiving and dominated the Cowboys. That game was never close and neither team has changed all that much in the past two weeks. However, the Cowboys are 6-0 on the road this season, so that is something to consider, but the Eagles are 6-1 at home. I usually give the advantage to the home team in games like this and I look for much closer game than the one between these two teams two weeks ago. In the end, I like the Eagles to win.
New Orleans over CHICAGO (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN): For about the past month, I have waited for the Saints to turn things around and win the NFC South, but it just hasn't happened. New Orleans has lost four straight home games and four of their last five games. Their defense ranks 29th in the league in both rushing and passing defense and 31st in total defense. The Bears aren't much better at 28th in total defense and they are 30th against the pass. This game is a toss-up with both teams being as bad as they are, but I'll take the Saints and give them one more week.
Bengals over BROWNS (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Fox): This past week yours truly turned 24 years old. The last time the Bengals won a playoff game it was January 6, 1991. I was 27 days old. For those of you keeping track, 23 years, 11 months, one week and one day has passed since the Cincinnati Bengals last won a playoff game. With the way the Bengals played last week against the Steelers, one has to wonder if another year will pass until the Bengals win another playoff game.
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| Emmanuel Lamur (59) and the rest of the Bengals' defense had no answer for Le'Veon Bell and the Steelers offense last Sunday. (The Cincinnati Enquirer/Gary Landers) |
For the third time this season, the Bengals gave up over 500-yards of offense. This season they have given up 543-yards to the Steelers, 505-yards to the Patriots and 506-yards to the Colts. According to STATS, that's a franchise first. This is the wrong time of year to be setting that kind of franchise record and if defensive coordinator Paul Guenther doesn't turn his defense around, the Bengals will not be in the playoffs. And his job does not get any easier this week as the Bengals will face the Browns and quarterback Johnny Manziel in his first career start.
The Browns need to win out to make the playoffs and they believe, and so do I, that Johnny Manziel gives them a better chance to win than Brian Hoyer. Manziel is a rookie and unproven in the NFL, but his athletic and running abilities could be a difference maker. If I were the Browns, I would run read-option, then more read-option and then more read-option. The Bengals defensive ends continually crash hard inside and if that continues then Manziel will have over 100-yards rushing on Sunday. Cleveland would also be smart to study the Panthers tape against the Bengals, because they had a hard time stopping Cam Newton.
With that being said, Manziel is a rookie and rookies, especially in their first game, are prone to mistakes. If the Bengals can take care of the ball, I think Manziel and the Browns are going to make some mistakes on offense that will be the difference in the game. I think a decent amount of points will be scored and I see the Bengals getting a much needed win, while in the process, ending almost all playoff hopes for the Browns. Bengals 30, Browns 27.
Last Week: 13-3
Overall: 146-61-1
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